Global Courant
Most Republican presidential candidates will converge on Simi Valley, California, on Wednesday evening for the second debate of the 2024 cycle in the Republican Party’s primaries, increasingly dominated by former President Donald Trump.
As with the first debate, Trump is skipping the event at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, citing his big primary and his complaints with the host venue and Fox News, whose sister network Fox Business moderates.
That leaves seven candidates on stage, competing for momentum as they try to close the enormous gap with Trump.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, entrepreneur and commentator Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, all qualified, while several other hopefuls, such as former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, failed to meet the polling and donor thresholds.
Here are five things to keep in mind when the candidates face off again.
Can Haley and Ramaswamy keep themselves in the spotlight?
Haley and Ramaswamy both received positive reviews after the first primary debate last month, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll of the Republican Party’s likely primary voters. Haley touted her conservative, bona fide values while casting herself as an experienced leader rather than a provocateur, while Ramaswamy sought to compete against other candidates to burnish his credentials as an outsider.
The second primary could give them a chance to maintain a key asset: momentum.
“You have to have a strong night and you can’t literally or figuratively fall off the stage during the debate. They both have to perform as well as they did, or better,” said New Hampshire-based GOP strategist Dave. Carney.
However, their performances last month could inspire other candidates to step up their games on Wednesday night and possibly direct the barbs their way specifically.
“Take Nikki Haley, who did a great job in the first debate. I think all the other contenders are thinking, ‘Well, holy moly, I have to do the same thing.’ So there will be a lot more people who are a lot more proactive and assertive – some of them than in the first debate,” Carney said.
And for Ramaswamy, who has captured the spotlight but raised eyebrows for mixing with other candidates as he called for a broad overhaul of the federal government and advocated for a Trump-like platform, GOP strategist Bob Heckman said voters might are looking for additional policy meat in the field of politics. the bone.
“I think in Ramaswamy in particular, people want to see what the second act is. The first act was basically in contradiction to everyone on stage. What comes next in terms of content?” Heckman said.
Can DeSantis and Scott change their stories?
DeSantis, who has risen from second place for the first time in some polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina in recent weeks, has faced constant speculation that his status as the top Trump alternative is in jeopardy.
And Scott, who was thought to be on the rise before the first debate, seemed to fade into the background at last month’s event, with relatively little speaking time and lukewarm numbers from likely voters in the post-debate poll.
Florida Governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis addresses the Pray Vote Stand Summit hosted by the Family Research Council in Washington, September 15, 2023.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters, FILE
It’s unclear how much their strategies will change leading up to Wednesday’s debate, although Scott is starting to follow other candidates more by name.
“For DeSantis, it’s critical. I don’t think he can afford to have a second straight debate,” Heckman said. “And I don’t think he was bad in the first debate, but I don’t think he turned anyone on, and he needs to show some personality and some willingness to mix it up with the frontrunner. And I don’t do that. I think he showed that in the first debate.”
“I think Tim Scott is still a curiosity. People look at him and say, ‘Sounds good, and I want to know more about him.’ If you look at his recent performances, Tim Scott has been much more combative and powerful,” Heckman added. “I think Scott got a chance to really come out in the second debate.”
Other strategists, however, said one debate isn’t enough to change perceptions of the candidates after months of campaigning — especially without Trump on stage to immediately follow up.
“Scott and DeSantis are probably who they are, and voters won’t come away with a different impression,” said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman.
Shutdown, immigration could get bigger
On the policy front, strategists predicted that an impending government shutdown and immigration are likely to dominate the discussion on stage Wednesday night.
Moderator Stuart Varney told Variety that “we’re going to discuss all the issues, and that’s what the public wants.”
Republicans in the House of Representatives have failed to pass their own spending bills amid intense power struggles between Speaker Kevin McCarthy and hardliners on his right flank who are demanding sharper cuts.
Republicans on and around Capitol Hill are also using the increase in unauthorized crossings at the southern border to attack the Biden administration on its immigration policies.
“It’s going to be the No. 1 topic of discussion, we’re just days away from the government shutdown. As of today, there is no plan in place at this time. Number 2 will be the limit if the crisis boils over. Carney predicted. “I think issues like Ukraine and other issues can come up, but only in the context of the spending in the budget, which will all be part of the government shutdown conversation. And I’m sure the moderators will try to bring up other issues, but I don’t think voters really care about anything other than those two things right now.”
Varney told Variety that their focus for the questions won’t just be on “the economy.” That may be the most important issue in the category, but there are other topics involved here as well.
With few of the candidates currently holding federal office and many calling for addressing the border, it is unclear how much differentiation will emerge on spending and the border.
“Immigration will probably get airtime, but they will all sound the same,” Stutzman said.
How much traction does counterprogramming gain?
Although Wednesday’s debate will be the main event, the candidates on stage will have to at least partially share the spotlight.
Trump will speak in Clinton Township, Michigan, an hour before the debate begins. The speech is ostensibly about the ongoing United Auto Workers strike, whose former president is trying to court members, but Trump has long had a reputation for long and thematically meandering speeches.
Trump tried to counter-program the first debate with an interview with Tucker Carlson on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden will kick off in San Francisco on Wednesday after a campaign reception Tuesday evening before holding another campaign event later in Arizona.
President Joe Biden listens during a meeting in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, September 25, 2023.
Susan Walsh/AP
“Trump gets attention no matter what he does. And so I think it will get some attention, but I think most of the attention will be on the debate,” Heckman said. “I don’t think Trump loses anything by not participating in the debate, but I don’t think he can avoid the fact that when he comes out of the debate, there will be talk about who has a good debate and who doesn’t.” .”
Is this the last time the stage is this big?
The stage shrunk to just one candidate after the first debate, with Hutchinson failing to qualify for Wednesday’s event. But strategists predicted that by the time the third debate starts in November, there will be some culling.
To qualify for that event, candidates must poll at least 4% in two national polls or 4% in one national poll and 4% or one early state poll from two separate “carve-out” states approved by the Republican National Committee, survey: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
That’s a 1% increase in the polls over the demands of the second debate, where a candidate needed 3% in three national polls or 3% in two national polls and 3% in two early polls.
Candidates will also need a minimum of 70,000 unique donors – up from 50,000 to participate in the second debate – with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in at least twenty states and/or territories.
“I think the Reagan Library is potentially going to be the scene of a huge killing field, and I think you’re going to see a number of people not making it to the third debate, which is what the contenders really need,” Carney said. . “You need to have as clear a field as possible so that instead of people writing about eight or seven people, they write about four or five people, and then hopefully that narrows down.”
