Global Courant
The Insivumeh reported in a special bulletin that the conditions of the El Niño phenomenon are present and one of the main indicators that “it has been fully established” is the increase in temperatures in the waters of the Pacific.
The effects it will have will gradually strengthen between 2023 and 2024 in the northern hemisphere, Insivumeh reported, as announced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on June 8.
In its report, Insivumeh details that among the effects of the El Niño phenomenon is the increase in temperatures, although the rainy season began last May.
Effects of El Niño
Currently, Guatemala is going through a heat wave that will decrease as of Thursday, June 15, when more rains occur.
However, the meteorological entity has announced that the warm weather will continue to prevail during the day in a large part of the territory, alternating with rain in the afternoon and night before the heat wave, scheduled between July 10 and 20.
During this period, maximum temperatures can reach 40 degrees in departments such as Zacapa or Petén and other areas of the East.
The phenomenon will also have an impact on the decrease in accumulated rainfall and, according to Insivumeh, the regions that could be most affected by the El Niño phase are: the West, Central Highlands, Valles de Oriente, Bocacosta, Pacific and North.
Although it does not have a fixed periodicity, according to recent historical records, the phenomenon had its strongest impact in Guatemala between 2014 and 2015, indicated the meteorologist César George, on June 8.
The expert recalled that the phenomenon also occurred between the years 1972-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.
Also read: Climate in Guatemala: What is the phenomenon of El Niño and La Niña, how are they different and what is their impact on the country
#BreakingNews: Began #ElNiño2023@NOAA formalized today June 8 the start of the #The boy in Zone 3.4
Probabilities that it is a “strong” event rise to 56%
Temperature in Zone 1+2 is already at levels last observed in #SuperNiño2015 pic.twitter.com/M34ojZpVvV
– Antarctica.cl (@Antarcticacl) June 8, 2023
Also read: Climate in Guatemala: Insivumeh informs from when the temperatures will drop in the country and what is the rain forecast
temperature changes
Regarding changes in temperature in Pacific waters, the report expands that in recent weeks there has been an increase between 0.5 and 2 degrees Celsius above average, extending from the eastern region to the equatorial zone.
For example, during the period from May 27 to June 11, 2023, an increase of 0.5 degrees Celsius more was registered.
The models also predict that the variations in the average temperature will be 1 degree for the quarter between June and August.
Meanwhile, between July and September the anomaly could be 1.2 degrees, when there will be a 93 percent probability that El Niño conditions are present.
Read more details: What is the El Niño phenomenon and how it will influence the hurricane season in the Atlantic
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
From June 12 to 16, 2023.#INSIVUMEHGeoscientific development for all. #We are INSIVUMEH #Guatemala pic.twitter.com/ekGBI5RNJa
– INSIVUMEH Guatemala (@insivumehgt) June 12, 2023
