Global Courant
BANGKOK — China’s navy quietly sailed into the shallow, energy-rich Gulf of Thailand earlier this month for Blue Strike 2023, a joint naval exercise aimed at boosting Beijing’s influence over Thailand’s newly elected military-backed civilian government.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, in his first political foray on the international stage, flew to New York and attended the UN General Assembly from September 18 to 24, where he met US President Joe Biden and other politicians, along with Google, Microsoft, Tesla, the US Chamber of Commerce and the US-ASEAN Business Council.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is also keen to scrutinize and charm Thailand’s new prime minister, and invited Srettha to visit Beijing from October 8 to 10.
The US and China are keeping an eye on the new administration and its views on international investments, tourism, trade and arms purchases. On August 22, Parliament ended three months of wrangling and agreed on a smooth, citizen-led, 11-party coalition government led by Srettha, a real estate magnate.
“Thailand is like a sick person,” Srettha said on September 11 in his first policy statement to parliament. “Tourism and spending are recovering so slowly that there is a risk of an economic recession,” he said.
Washington and Beijing are also assessing officer and faction promotions by the US-trained military on September 1 to see if there are any shifts in Thailand’s attempt to balance its relations with the two superpowers.
“The selection of General Charonchai Hinthao (also spelled Jaroenchai Hintao) as army commander was a major victory for military officials closer to the US,” Paul Chambers, a lecturer in Southeast Asian affairs at Naresuan University, said in an interview.
“The same can be said for the choice of the commander of the Royal Thai Armed Forces, General Songwit Noonpakdi, and the new air force commander ACM (Air Chief Marshal) Panpakdee Pattanakul, who prefers American F-16s and F-35s for Thailand .
A Royal Thai Air Force F-16A fighter during flight training with Thailand and the US. Photo: Handout
“Only the Thai Navy remains oriented toward China,” Chambers said.
The Pentagon is particularly concerned about Bangkok’s military support for U.S. security interests, amid confrontations between Washington and Beijing over territorial claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan’s political survival.
“Thailand is trying to stay away from the disagreements between the US and China over Taiwan,” Chambers said.
In 2003, then-President George W. Bush named Thailand a “non-NATO ally,” and the two countries’ militaries are closely linked after decades of training and experience.
Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu said in June: “Attempts to push for NATO-like (alliances) in the Asia-Pacific are a way to kidnap regional countries and exaggerate conflict and confrontation.”
These alliances will “plunge the Asia-Pacific into a vortex of disputes and conflicts,” Li said.
“Against the backdrop of the Asia-Pacific region currently facing a number of security challenges, China is willing to work with Thailand to maintain regional stability and ensure lasting security in the region,” he added.
China wants “more fruitful cooperation between the two militaries, especially between the two militaries,” Li said.
A former Thai foreign minister, Kantathi Suphamongkhon, said: “Even though we are unlikely to see deliberate military clashes between the US and China in the region, conflicts could arise accidentally when tensions are high.
“Thailand will try to maintain good relations with Washington and Beijing as much as possible,” Kantathi said in an interview.
Washington also has other ways to woo Bangkok.
“The U.S. should increase cooperation with Thailand on investments, trade, ODA (Official Development Assistance), U.S. military assistance and joint U.S.-Thai military exercises,” Chambers said.
“The Srettha government is likely to continue the balanced hedging policy between China and the United States because such a policy strengthens Thai business interests,” he said.
“We have good relations with China and the United States,” Srettha recently told a forum. “We must be neutral. Not leaning one way or another.”
“This is a coalition government made up of two main factions, one led by Thaksin Shinawatra and the other by General Prayuth Chan-ocha, so the muddling through to balance relations with China and the US is likely to continue .” another former foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, said in an interview.
These two factions are a twisted, forced marriage.
Thaksin was an elected civilian prime minister from 2001 to 2006, but was ousted in a military coup in September 2006, backed by royalists, wealthy influential families and other conservatives.
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during an interview in Singapore on February 23, 2016. Photo: Asia Times Files / Reuters / Edgar Su / File Photo
Their hostility against the populist leader increased when he fled abroad, evading court convictions for financial crimes and being sentenced in absentia to years in prison.
However, the two enemies recently joined forces, allowing Thaksin to return to Bangkok last month. His combined ten-year sentences were reduced to one year in prison.
He is currently in the Police General Hospital amid allegations that he is receiving luxurious treatment instead of a filthy cell.
Conservative elites appear to have united with Thaksin against a new, more popular usurper, the Move Forward Party’s Pita Limjaroenrat, who threatens all their deeply held interests.
In May, Pita won a majority in the elected House of Parliament, campaigning to weaken the monarchy’s strict protections against criticism, strip the military of its political and commercial power, end the draft and oversee military promotions.
As a result, the military-appointed Senate and elected House rejected Pita’s bid to become Prime Minister.
Instead, Parliament backed Srettha and the Peua Thai party, which is effectively considered under Thaksin’s control – even from his hospital bed through family members, lawyers and other sympathizers who are allowed to receive visits.
As such, the apparently sympathetic Prime Minister Srettha is already seen as Thaksin’s puppet.
However, Srettha’s experience in Bangkok’s luxury real estate market and with international companies can help him promote Thailand amid stiff competition from other investment-friendly, dynamic Southeast Asian neighbors.
“The US is paying more attention to Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. Thailand is somewhat overlooked and ignored,” Kasit said. “So it is up to the new Thai government to make itself heard.”
The good news for Washington, after decades of financial aid to Bangkok, is its favorable image among many Thai politicians.
“No Thai political party is anti-US,” he said.
“US soft power, such as education, scientific and technological achievements, should be promoted more. Cultural exchanges should be reactivated through more frequent visits to Thailand by political leaders, senior government officials and academics,” said former Foreign Minister Kasit.
The Royal Thai Navy, meanwhile, wants to buy Chinese submarines even as the US trains Thai submarines along the west coast of Thailand in the Andaman Sea, which flows into the Bay of Bengal and inundates Myanmar, Bangladesh, the east coast of India and Sri Lanka.
“Thailand’s Beijing-centric foreign policy began under Peua Thai’s original founder and Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and has continued unabated under every Thai government since,” said Bangkok-based Benjamin Zawacki, author of “Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the US and a Rising China,” he said in an interview.
“Keep in mind the connection between the origins of Thailand’s initial pro-China stance and who is now back in power,” Zawacki said.
China’s annual Blue Strike joint naval exercise with Thailand this month reportedly involved more than 2,500 personnel from both countries, a Chinese submarine, an amphibious dock landing ship, a guided-missile frigate and a supply ship.
Chinese naval officers and soldiers stand at attention during the Blue Strike-2023 joint naval training with Thailand, Sattahip Port, September 10, 2023. Image: Xinhua
A Royal Thai Navy photo showed China’s Changcheng submarine in Thailand’s Sattahip port near Bangkok on the first day of the exercise, as Thai naval officers in white uniforms walked up a gangway to the top hatch under the submarine’s conning tower.
The land and sea training in the Gulf of Thailand and at a coastal naval camp near Sattahip included “sniper tactics, jungle survival and maritime search and rescue,” the Bangkok Post reported. Both sides also learned about “chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense.”
In May, Thailand awarded the Thailand unit of US multinational Chevron an area of 15,030 square kilometers under the gulf for oil exploration and production. The new block is reportedly next to a Chevron natural gas production block and is expected to hold more gas.
Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent who has reported from Asia since 1978. Excerpts from his two new non-fiction books, “Rituals. Murderers. Wars. & Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and New York” and “Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers and Freaks” are available here.
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