Global Courant 2023-04-20 14:01:07
China’s top leader Xi Jinping has rolled out the red carpet for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, hailing him as “an old friend of the Chinese people”. He has had tea in a garden with President Emmanuel Macron of France and treated him to a performance by one old chinese zither. And he spoke on the phone to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, and wished him well for the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.
But even though Mr Xi has extended a happy hand to those and other world leaders in recent weeks, it has only been the cold shoulder for the United States. China has rejected attempts by the Biden administration to resume high-level talks and ease tensions over Taiwan. And the government of Mr. Xi has intensified a campaign of ridicule and criticism of the United States and Western democracy.
Taken together, efforts to strengthen ties with US allies while publicly discrediting the United States reflect Beijing’s hardening position as relations sink to their lowest point in decades over what Mr Xi has described as Washington’s “containment, encirclement and suppression of China”.
The two-pronged approach, some analysts say, is compelling evidence that Mr Xi is fully committed to the view that engagement between China and the United States is fruitless, at least for now. And it has given urgency to concerns that the two powers are on a collision course that could lead to dangerous accidents, or even war, over Taiwan and other geopolitical hot spots.
Mr Xi’s diplomatic efforts were rebuffed this week by the United States and some of its closest allies, as a meeting of Japan’s top group of 7 diplomats met and pledged to tackle China’s growing assertiveness together. But Mr Xi has still gotten some of the response he and other Chinese officials had hoped for in recent months, visually undermining some of the alliances that support Washington’s influence.
During the meeting of Mr. Xi with Mr. Lula, the Brazilian leader railed against the continued dominance of the US dollar in trade and visited a research center of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, which is under sanctions from the United States. Mr Macron hailed European autonomy and warned against dragging the United States into a war over Taiwan. And Prince Mohammed praised China’s growth”constructive rolein the Middle East, a not-so-subtle dig at the United States and its strained relations in the region.
Better understand China-US relations
At the same time, China’s state media has railed against the “dangers” and “abuses” of US hegemony, criticizing the United States on human rights, racism and gun violence. It has seized leaked Pentagon documents to highlight how Washington is spying on its allies. And it has mocked the Biden administration for holding a summit on democracy last month, describing American democracy as “troubled”, “messy” and “in constant decline”.
Beijing’s harder line reflects its frustrations over a series of US moves, particularly regarding Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by China. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States earlier this month and met Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker of the House of Representatives. On Monday, Taiwan said it had struck a deal to buy up to 400 US anti-ship missiles to counter a possible Chinese invasion.
Then there are the joint military exercises the United States is holding with the Philippines, the largest in decades.
Those moves add to resentment centered on US restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors to China and growing security ties between the United States and countries on China’s periphery, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and India.
To Chinese officials, US pleas for renewed diplomatic involvement — including a long-awaited phone call between Mr Biden and Mr Xi — ring hollow in the face of what they see as rising hostility and provocations. High-level talks cannot proceed until the United States demonstrates.credible sincerity with concrete actionsChinese state media said last week.
“Responsibility for the current difficulties in China-US relations does not lie with China,” said Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, recently when asked about resuming dialogue with Washington and the possible rescheduling of a visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken that was called off after the rise of a suspected high-altitude Chinese spy balloon over the mainland United States in February.
“The US must stop interfering in China’s internal affairs and harming Chinese interests, and stop undermining the political basis for our bilateral relations, while emphasizing the need to put ‘guard rails’ on the relationship,” he said. added mr. Cheek.
The Biden administration says it wants to put up “guard rails” to prevent an incident from flaring up over a misunderstanding in hotly contested areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, where China held live-fire exercises in response to the visit from Mrs. Tsai. Without protocols and direct lines of communication, the risk of an incident remains high as US and Chinese troops patrol the region regularly and often at close range.
Beijing views guardrails as another form of containment, as they would reveal to the United States how far they could be pushed without provoking a military response. China would prefer its red lines to remain ambiguous and leave Washington in the dark.
China suspended most military dialogue with the United States last August following former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. the Pentagon said just last week that Beijing had turned down requests to cooperate with Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark A. Milley.
Mr. Blinken expressed some optimism that high-level talks would resume.
“I expect that we can take steps in that direction. But it does require China to make its own intentions clear,” he told reporters at a meeting of the Group of 7 countries in Japan on Tuesday.
Analysts say Mr Xi likely believes he has nothing to gain from talking to President Biden at this point, especially as negative views of China appear to be becoming more common in the United States.
“Xi clearly believes that commitment for engagement’s sake is a foolish message. The time for talking is over. Instead, it’s time for Beijing to close the shutters,” said Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Simply put, there is no going back to the way things were, so Xi must now prepare China for a more fraught future.”
Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese politics, said it is possible that Beijing will reconnect with Washington once it feels it has more leverage. That could come after Beijing deepens ties with more non-aligned countries like Brazil or after it deepens divisions in Europe over how closely the United States should be followed in its tougher stance on China.
“China wants to engage the US from a position of strength, and China is clearly not in that position right now,” said Mr. Pei. “America’s success in assembling allies and waging the tech war against China at least proves that it is still much more powerful than China and has more tools at its disposal.”
China is now trying to walk a fine line between diplomatically rejecting the United States and trying to convince central bankers and investors that it is open for business after years of strict Covid measures.
Yi Gang, the governor of China’s central bank, met Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, last week on the sidelines of a World Bank and International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington to discuss their countries’ economies. There are also plans for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to visit China.
But Mr. Yi also had grievances. He criticized Western countries for diverting trade from China to geopolitical allies, using the term “friend-shoring” in a statement to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on Friday.
Chinese analysts say prospects of China-US relations improving soon remain distant. The modest progress Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden after their meeting in Indonesia last November, has all but disappeared after the balloon incident and the visit of Ms. Tsai to the United States, said Wu Xinbo, dean of international studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“According to China, while Biden showed a good attitude in Bali, he is not very willing to improve relations between China and the US,” said Mr. Wu. “China thinks the US has neither the sincerity nor the ability to improve relations.”
Olivia Wang contributed reporting.
