Global Courant
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to Beijing, the first in five years by a top US diplomat, was met with sighs of relief across the region, especially in Southeast Asia.
In the past month, the two superpowers had at least two near encounters in Asian waters, namely in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, raising fears of direct armed clashes in recent months amid the virtual blackout of communication channels.
Beijing’s decision to wind down institutionalized dialogue with Washington followed rising tensions over Western sanctions against China’s high-tech industries, particularly semiconductors, and against senior officials, including the the country’s chief of defense, Li Shangfuon human rights and Russia-related issues.
But another major source of bilateral tension is the expanded US diplomatic and military presence in the region, most notably former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, as well as the expanded agreement on enhanced defense cooperation ( EDCA) with the Philippines this year.
In April, China accused its rival of “endangering regional peace” through extensive military access to Philippine bases, some of which are relatively close to Taiwan’s southern coast.
from Blink conciliatory statements in Beijingincluding his insistence on upholding the “One China policy”, had its share of critics who argued that the trip was “misguided” and only “encouraged” Beijing.
However, by most indications, the major Southeast Asian nations have not only welcomed any potential thaw in Sino-US relations, but are also actively seeking Beijing’s benevolence amid fears of a new Cold War.
This is especially true in the case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), two largest states, which now seem determined to secure a geopolitical soft landing after months of rising tensions in the region.
On the one hand, Indonesia has indicated its readiness to adjust the location of proposed joint ASEAN naval exercises, possibly the first-ever held, to address China’s concerns while the Philippines has welcomed resumption of maritime talks shortly after hosting a Chinese naval contingent.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo visits a military base in the Natuna Islands during a standoff with Chinese ships in the sea area on Jan. 8, 2020. Photo: Handout / Indonesian Presidential Palace / AFP
Last year, Southeast Asian nations played a critical role in bringing about a temporary détente between the two superpowers, when US President Joe Biden and Chinese Supreme Leader Xi Jinping held a much-lauded summit on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.
However, the ensuing “Bali Detente” proved short-lived, especially after the White House shot down a Chinese spy balloon flying over US soil earlier this year.
Subsequent attempts to revive defense diplomacy, particularly on the sidelines of Singapore’s annual Shangri-La dialogue this year, have also failed to yield concrete results. For example, Blinken’s surprise visit to Beijing was closely watched by outside observers, who remained skeptical of a major breakthrough.
To critics, the trip almost reeked of diplomatic desperation, with the US seemingly chasing China for routine dialogue.
There were also concerns about unnecessary “concessions”, especially after the top US diplomat reiterated the Biden administration’s opposition to Taiwan’s formal “independence” ahead of the self-governing island’s presidential election in early 2024.
“Antony Blinken basically threw Taiwan under the bus,” said former US defense intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler. told Fox News following the claim of the top US diplomat that America “does not support Taiwan’s independence”.
“His statement that the US does not support Taiwan is an invitation to Beijing to carry out its long-held ambition to establish control of the self-governing island,” the former US official said.
“Xi Jinping will almost certainly be emboldened by Blinken’s announcement to invade Taiwan… now Beijing will be more confident that Washington will not even put up a big fight and help Taipei,” he added.
Aware of potential criticism, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink sought to reassure allies by emphasizing how stable Sino-US relations are “critical” to regional peace and security.
He also stressed that seeking a functional dialogue to “prevent the risk of miscalculation” does not preclude countermeasures against China’s aggressive behavior in the neighborhood.
“We have made it clear that we will oppose a range of concerns we have with Chinese activities, including in the South China Sea, and including those targeting some of our key partners and allies, such as the Philippines.” Kritenbrink added, highlighting the Biden administration’s commitment to a “rules-based international order” and to the “security and defense of our allies.”
Multiple planes fly in formation over the USS Ronald Reagan, a US Navy aircraft carrier, in the South China Sea. Photo: Kaila V Peters / United States Navy
Frankly, Blinken’s visit seems to have raised hopes that Sino-US tensions will de-escalate. During his meeting with the US diplomat, the Chinese leader said: “(We have) made our position clear and the two sides have agreed to live up to the common understandings that President Biden and I reached in Bali.”
For his part, Biden welcomed the resumption of formal dialogue and indicated “I will meet Xi again in the coming months”, likely on the sidelines of the G20 summit in India and/or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in the United States . US, to talk about “legitimate differences that we have, but also…areas that we get along with”.
In fact, both superpowers have vowed to build on the diplomatic momentum generated by their summit in Bali last year. Key ASEAN states are also adjusting their sails to contribute to a broader de-escalation.
Indonesia, the current ASEAN presidency, has revised its plans for an inaugural ASEAN naval exercise later this year. Indonesia’s military chief Yudo Margono initially said the exercises were planned in the so-called “North Natuna Sea,” which overlaps with China’s vast claims to the South China Sea basin.
After resistance by Beijing-friendly ASEAN members, namely Cambodia, Indonesiawhich just hosted major war games along with the US and China, now signals the relocation of the planned exercises to the waters of South Natuna, well beyond the areas claimed by Beijing.
For their part, the Philippines, an ally of the US, is also reaching out to China. Earlier this month, the Southeast Asian country hosted Chinese naval officers and cadets on a goodwill visit by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval contingent.
The PLA Navy’s visiting training ship, named after a 16th-century Ming dynasty Chinese naval officer, was reportedly the “largest and most advanced naval training ship designed and built by China itself,” according to the Chinese Embassy in China. Manila.
“A steady step in CN-PH’s defense cooperation, the visit follows the tradition of exchanges between the two armies in addition to implementing the important consensus between the heads of state of China and the Philippines,” the Chinese embassy said in a statement.
The Philippine Navy welcomed the visit and underlined its commitment to “the customary and customary accommodation it provides to all visiting navies fulfilling its diplomatic role and promoting maritime cooperation.”
Philippine Marines practice their amphibious assault vehicles during a landing on a South China Sea beach north of Manila on Sept. 21, 2019. Tensions between the Philippines and China have risen. Photo: AFP/Ted Aljibe
Crucially, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr also announced that the two countries were “making some progress” toward a possible breakthrough in their maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
“We already have coordination with them (China) if there is a fishing ban, so that there is not suddenly a fishing ban. At least we can have a plan,” Marcos said, referring to tensions over China’s annual unilateral fishing ban in areas within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone.
“These things are not coming very soon…but we are making slow progress because the key to it is the improved communication between the Philippine government and the Chinese government,” the Philippine president added, demonstrating his commitment to maintaining amicable relations with Beijing, even as he welcomes expanded defense ties with the US.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter @Richeydarian
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