Global Courant
Australia must take three important things into account if AUKUS is to bring peace and stability South East Asia.
First, Australia needs to build trust with its South East Asian neighbours, especially those critical to AUKUS’s success. Second, Australia must ensure that AUKUS complies with international law. Third, Australia must be committed to building a peaceful and stable relationship with China.
AUKUS supporters in Australia argue that it will strengthen Asia-Pacific stability by deterring China’s growing military influence in the region. But critics argue that Australia should pursue more strategic security cooperation with its Asian-Pacific neighbors rather than its traditional Western allies.
The main concern of AUKUS critics is the response from Southeast Asia. Like other controversial regional issues, Southeast Asian countries are not unanimous on AUKUS. The Philippines seems welcome the trilateral arrangement and that also applies to Vietnam and Singapore, albeit implicitly. Indonesia and Malaysia are more critical.
This is not surprising. The Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore have traditionally welcomed extra-regional military presence, while Indonesia and Malaysia have been reluctant. In fact, Indonesia’s discomfort dates back to its first president, Sukarno.
It is in Australia’s interest to gain the trust of its neighbours. Suspicion – especially in Indonesia, one of Australia’s main neighbors – will undermine Australia’s efforts to build closer ties with the region.
Ensuring transparency and strengthening communication is crucial. Australia is trying to improve communications with its Southeast Asian counterparts after they were shocked by AUKUS’s lack of prior consultation.
In February 2023, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto met with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles to discuss strategic security issues in the Indo-Pacific.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Indonesian President Joko Widodo with bamboo bicycles after a ride in Bogor, Indonesia. Photo: Handout
AUKUS was high on the agenda and Indonesia reiterated “the importance of transparency in AUKUS cooperation and… a commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.”
Following the publication of the AUKUS Joint Leaders Statement in March 2023, Australian Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Mark Hammond went on a Southeast Asian tour and met Admiral Muhammad Ali, the Chief of the Indonesian Navy in Jakarta.
Following their meeting, Admiral Ali stated in a public lecture that the Indonesian Navy believes that AUKUS will satisfy with international law. While concerns persistIndonesia has softened its tone.
Australia has also improved transparency by outlining its AUKUS strategy in the latest version Defense strategic review. Intensive communication and transparency are the best way to do that recover and preserve Southeast Asia trust.
Comply with international right is also important. Australia has stressed that these nuclear-powered submarines will not carry nuclear weapons. AUKUS will ratify the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPV) and comply with all guarantees of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
But there are ongoing discussions at the IAEA and the NPT over whether the transfer of nuclear material to Australia may be in breach of the Nuclear Explosive Transfer Obligation and thus breach the IAEA and NPT safeguards. Australia has responded by reiterating that it has no intention of building nuclear-capable submarines.
In addition to fulfilling its nuclear treaty obligations, Australia must also comply with the rules of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) on the passage of submarines. Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines are likely to navigate Indonesia’s archipelago sea routes, something that worries members of Indonesia’s parliament.
Under the UNCLOS rules of Archipelagic Sea Lanes Passages, Innocent Passages and Transit Passages, Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines can navigate Indonesian waters in peacetime. But each passage brings with it other obligations.
The submarines can remain submerged when passing Indonesia’s designated Archipelago Sea Routes or the straits typically used for international navigation. But they must surface and display their flag when passing through territorial waters or undesignated archipelago waters.
Compliance with UNCLOS rules is important for Australia to gain Indonesia’s trust as a direct neighbour. Violating it could lead countries in the region to view Australia as a threat to regional stability.
Australia should also be committed to a peaceful relationship with China. Counterbalancing China’s growing dominance can be beneficial, but escalating tensions between Australia and China are one of Southeast Asia’s main concerns.
This photo, taken by the Philippine Coast Guard, shows Chinese ships anchored off Pentecost Reef, 175 nautical miles west of Bataraza in Palawan in the South China Sea. Photo: AFP
Shortly after the announcement of AUKUS in September 2021, then Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said that AUKUS “could provoke other powers to take more aggressive action in (the) region, especially in the South China Sea.”
Concerns about China’s increased aggression are likely shared by all Southeast Asian countries, even those that welcome AUKUS. How Australia and China can resolve their differences peacefully will be key to maintaining peace and security in the region.
AUKUS can provide a solution to China’s intimidating actions in the region. But China is one of Southeast Asia’s most important economic partners, even though it is in Southeast Asia’s interest to have the United States and its allies – including Australia – as reliable partners. Any conflict between Australia and China would be disastrous for the region.
Building and maintaining trust in South East Asia through Australian transparency and adherence to international law will be critical to strike the delicate balance of deterring China without escalating tensions.
Aristyo Rizka Darmawan is a PhD Scholar at ANU College of Asia and the Pacific at Australian National University and Lecturer in International Law at Universitas Indonesia.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and has been republished under a Creative Commons license.
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