Global Courant
Senior military officials from the United States and China used a conference in Singapore to advance competing visions of Asia’s future security: a US-led safety net of well-armed partnerships versus a region where China is the center of a new international order .
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and officials from allied countries argued – implicitly or explicitly – that the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed that Asia urgently needed to embrace a network of US-led alliances to tame China’s growing power. On Sunday, China’s Defense Minister General Li Shangfu methodically criticized the United States and portrayed Beijing as a contrast in leadership, increasingly confident in using its political, economic and military power to keep Asia stable.
“Certain countries have deliberately interfered in the internal and regional affairs of other countries and often resort to unilateral sanctions and armed coercion,” General Li said in an unmistakable reference to the United States and its allies. They “create chaos in a region and then walk away, leaving a mess behind,” he said. “We never want this to be repeated in Asia Pacific.”
The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Mr. Austin and Gen. Li spoke, is one of the few mainstream forums where Beijing and Washington publicly try to win over Asian policymakers and the public. And this year’s meeting, which included defense ministers from Ukraine, Britain, Germany and Canada, brought into sharp focus how the rivalry between the United States and China is becoming a contest over the future global geopolitical landscape: to a resurgent American-dominated order with more active and engaged partners, or to a partner in which China is in the lead, at least in Asia.
Hovering over their competing narratives was the war in Ukraine, along with the threat of conflict in Asia, where the risks of a fleeting, unexpected clash between China and the United States appear to be mounting. Saturday the United States Indo-Pacific Command said that a US naval destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, slowed down to avoid a possible collision with a Chinese naval vessel crossing in front of the Chung-Hoon as it passed through the strait between China and Taiwan.
General Li downplayed the near miss, saying the best way to avoid an accident was for countries outside the region, such as the United States, to leave and “mind their own business”.
However, many European officials at the conference argued that their governments should become more involved in Asia to protect their economies, and that Asian countries should do more to support Ukraine.
Josep Borrell Fontelles, a foreign affairs and security official at the European Union, called the war in Ukraine “a game changer” who had taught Europe “nothing is far away in a globalized world”. Security vulnerabilities in one region “affect everyone, everywhere,” he said.
As proof, many European defense officials cited rising global food prices as a result of a stranglehold on grain exports from Ukraine.
And they tried to portray Russia (which did not participate in the conference) as a near-term threat to Asia with a capable navy operating north of Japan and a global program designed to sabotage submarine cables connecting the internet and power supply throughout the region.
“All those capabilities are coming into the Pacific and we need to realize what that means for our vulnerabilities,” said Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary.
China rejected the idea that Europe should play a bigger role in Asian security, describing it as a ploy by the United States to create an Asia-Pacific version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Speaking at the conference, China’s former ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai said the “best thing” Europe can do for Asia is “do nothing”, adding “we don’t need Asian NATO.”
Mr Cui, who sat on a panel alongside Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, urged Europe to learn from Asia’s “success” in maintaining regional peace, saying China should learn of Europe’s “lack of success” by comparison.
It was a point uniformed Chinese commanders made repeatedly — that, according to Beijing, the West’s efforts to encircle Russia had forced Moscow into war, and that such a strategy to contain China could produce a similar outcome. As another Chinese official asked on the forum, “Have you ever thought that this way of self-restraint is a problem, or some kind of failure, proven by the war in Ukraine?”
But in a venue where Russia’s invasion has often been described in the harshest terms, China’s continued support for Russia has also drawn criticism. At the end of the session with Mr. Cui turned mr. Reznikov turned around and spoke directly to the Chinese envoy about the shifting power dynamics between China and Russia. Unlike decades ago, he said, China was now the “older brother” and Russia the “younger brother.”
“Would you tell the younger brother to stop invading Ukraine?” said Mr. Reznikov, receiving applause from the audience.
Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto highlighted the rift between Western powers and many developing countries over the issue of the war and proposed a peace plan in Ukraine that did not include the withdrawal of Russian troops. Instead, he called for a ceasefire, the establishment of a demilitarized zone and a possible referendum in disputed areas.
The proposal immediately drew criticism from Western officials, as well as from Mr. Reznikov.
“I’ll try to be polite,” Mr. Reznikov said, adding, “It sounds like a Russian plan.”
Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, said many of the countries that are trying hardest to avoid having to take sides between the United States and China, such as Indonesia, will soon be unable to influence the dynamics. as a growing number of countries outside the region want to play a bigger role.
“The problem is that the world is changing,” he said, adding, “That more passive attitude means they’re no match for how it’s being shaped.”
And even countries that have switched between leaning towards Washington and Beijing expressed skepticism about China’s promises.
Philippine military officials highlighted the gap between Chinese statements and the actual maneuvers — citing several recent instances of aggressive behavior by the Chinese Coast Guard, including harassment of fishing boats, in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone.
“While China talks about dialogue, China’s actions demonstrate confrontation,” said Commodore Jay Tarriela of the Philippine Coast Guard.
That caution about China’s intentions and ambitions has prompted US allies in the region to strengthen their military ties with the West. Japan led the way, announcing a few weeks ago that it was working to open a NATO liaison office in Tokyo.
While Chinese officials have been quick to describe such efforts as futile and dangerous, Japan’s defense minister Yasukazu Hamada insisted that connections between countries and regions were “not about fighting”.
“Even if we expand military capacity, diplomacy is more important,” he said.
It was one of many veiled references to China’s refusal to respond to United States requests for direct talks between the two countries’ senior military officials.
General Li, who has a background in aerospace engineering, was thought to be less astute than his colleagues in the People’s Liberation Army, and his presence in Singapore was taken by some as a sign that China wanted to strike a friendlier tone at the forum.
Still, Mr. Li did not meet with Mr. Austin, he only briefly shook hands at a Friday night dinner. On Sunday, he warned that China would not back down from defending its rights and interests, quoting the words of a song:
“When friends come to visit, bring out the good wine. When jackals and wolves come to visit, get out the shotgun.
