Global Courant
For several weeks, a flurry of meetings between US and Chinese officials seemed to indicate that the two countries were trying to ease tensions after months of resentment and frozen high-level contacts sparked concerns about the risk of conflict, whether or not not by accident.
First, US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Vienna in May. The two countries’ top trade officials then held talks, the first bilateral cabinet-level meeting in Washington in months. China’s ambassador also arrived in Washington last week, finally filling a post that had been vacant since January.
But while Beijing has come back to the table on some issues, it has also taken an even tougher stance, complicating the “thaw” in US-China relations that President Biden predicted last month. China has interrogated Washington’s sincerity pushed back US technology export controls by imposing its own restrictions and demanding the removal of sanctions.
Beijing turned down an invitation for China’s defense minister Li Shangfu to meet defense minister Lloyd Austin at a security meeting this weekend in Singapore, the Pentagon said this week. And last Friday, a Chinese plane buzzed a US spy plane over the South China Sea and flew right in front of the plane’s nose, a maneuver the US military called “unnecessarily aggressive.”
“China tends to view access to its senior leaders as a reward for acquiescence, rather than a tool to create stability or resolve disputes,” said Drew Thompson, a former US defense official who is currently a fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore. “You have to meet China on their terms to get a meeting.”
The Pentagon called China’s rejection of this week’s Shangri-La Dialogue security forum meeting in Singapore an example of Beijing’s “worrying” reluctance to address military issues. Mr Li, who was appointed to his position in March, has been subject to US sanctions since 2018 for purchasing military equipment from Russia. Pentagon officials have said this will not stop Mr. Li from meeting Mr. Austin.
But China has argued that sanctions against Chinese officials are a barrier to improving the relationship. Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, said Washington would lift sanctions against Mr. Li should lift and “create favorable conditions for dialogue”. On Tuesday, she reiterated China’s position that Washington must “immediately correct wrongdoing” if it wants to restore communication between the armies.
China wants to meet US officials without degrading conditions, said Shen Dingli, an international relations professor at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“We want to have a meeting based on mutual respect,” Professor Shen said. “We want the US to lift the sanctions and seek a compromise through mutual concession.”
In recent years, the US has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials and companies over allegations of human rights violations, technical espionage and a range of other issues.
The US and China have incentive to take firmer stance ahead of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November in San Francisco, which will be closely watched for any meeting between Mr Biden and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. While both governments have said they want to end the downward spiral in relations that started in February when the US downed a suspected Chinese spy balloon, their motives are not always aligned.
US officials want open lines of military communication with China. As last week’s aircraft interception showed, the two countries’ armies regularly patrol disputed areas such as the South China Sea, raising the risk of an accidental conflict. On Thursday, Mr Austin said some of China’s activities in international airspace and waterways were “provocative”. (Beijing, for its part, blamed the United States for deploying planes and vessels too close to China’s borders.)
Mr Biden has spoken of putting up “guard rails” to prevent competition between the US and China from turning into a crisis. But Chinese officials have dismissed that suggestion as an attempt by Washington to contain and suppress China’s rise.
“If there is no dialogue, there are unacceptable risks for both sides,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the United States German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program. That includes, she said, the risk of “sleepwalking into a conflict over Taiwan.”
The US also sees the potential for closer cooperation with China on issues such as climate change mitigation and debt relief in poor countries, arenas where the two rivals are more likely to find common ground than on sensitive military and security issues.
John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, said last month that China was inviting him for a “short-term” visit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said in April that she hopes to visit China and called for a “constructive” and “healthy” economic relationship.
For China, resuming trade talks with the US could help revive its domestic economy. China’s recovery this year after three years of strict “zero Covid” restrictions has been uneven and export growth has slowed. Geopolitical tensions and China’s focus on national security have created an uncertain business environment.
“We want to talk about how we can export to the US without compromising US national security, and how the US can access the Chinese market while respecting China,” said Professor Shen of Fudan University.
In an effort to bring companies to justice, China has welcomed a series of visits from leading entrepreneurs, including Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, in March, and Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, this week.
On Tuesday, China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang took advantage of a meeting with Mr Musk to convey Beijing’s talking points that a “healthy, stable and constructive” relationship between the US and China would benefit both countries and the world. Mr Qin said the two countries should know when to “pull the brakes” to “avoid dangerous driving” and when to “press the accelerator” to promote cooperation.
China may also feel pressure to work with the US to push back against sweeping restrictions announced in October by the Biden administration to block Beijing’s access to critical US technologies, such as semiconductors. China is outraged by Washington’s attempts to rally allies like Japan and the Netherlands to similarly halt chip exports to China, moves that have hurt the Chinese economy.
In what analysts saw as a retaliatory move, the Chinese government last week announced a ban on certain companies buying products from Micron Technology, a US-based microchip maker.
“When China talks about finding stability in the relationship, it’s often more about the US easing strategic pressure on China,” said Paul Haenle, a former director for China on the National Security Council under the Bush and Obama administrations. “They want the US to end the sanctions, end the export controls.”
Even if conversations are restarted, some issues may be difficult or impossible to resolve. Washington has repeatedly warned of the consequences if China provides deadly aid to Russia, Beijing’s closest strategic partner, in Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Bipartisan political moves in the US to confront China could limit the scope for overtures by the Biden administration, analysts say.
Commenting last week, the Communist Party’s main newspaper, People’s Daily, said Ambassador Xie Feng’s arrival in Washington on May 23 was “a sign of détente that takes the strained relationship off the edge.”
But the article also blamed U.S. policymakers for damaging the relationship, saying improved relations depended on Washington being willing “not to damage mutual trust, avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations, and take concrete steps to fulfill its promises.” to fulfill”.
