Global Courant 2023-05-13 00:11:37
To revive its sluggish economy, China has been trying this year to bring in foreign investors and stabilize its ties with the West. But these goals clash with what China’s leader, Xi Jinping, sees as the top priority: strengthening national security in a world he says is fraught with threats.
Mr Xi has warned that China must fight back against a campaign by the United States to contain and suppress the country’s rise. In this worldview, foreign rivals use spies to weaken China’s economy; Russia is not treated as a pariah, but as a vital partner in blunting the NATO threat; and the diplomatic stage is a place to assert China’s influence and reshape the world order in its favor.
At home, authorities have terrified foreign companies by cracking down on consulting firms with international ties across the country. China’s state broadcaster accused Western countries of stealing sensitive information in key industries with the help of consulting firms that help investors navigate China’s murky economy.
Abroad, China’s efforts to improve ties with Europe — to drive a wedge between the United States and some of its key allies — have been complicated by Beijing’s proximity to Moscow. During a visit to Germany this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang dismissed criticism that Beijing was not doing enough to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. He also warned that China would retaliate if the European Union decides to impose sanctions on Chinese companies accused of supplying Russia with technology for its military.
China’s increasingly forceful approach has also raised concerns in Canada. That government accused a Chinese diplomat of harassment and gathering family information about a Canadian lawmaker who was a staunch critic of Beijing’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims. After Ottawa ordered the Chinese official to leave, Beijing expelled a Canadian diplomat in Shanghai.
“China’s ability to manage multiple and competing interests, domestic and global, is rapidly becoming a defining challenge for Xi,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a Georgetown University Asian studies professor who served as an adviser to President Barack Obama.
While that is not new, Mr. Medeiros said, it has become much more difficult as China’s economic recovery is more fraught with a slowdown in export growth and rising unemployment rates. “Xi seems to think he can both assert himself and attract other countries, relying on the gravity of their economies and global frustration with US power. These are big bets.”
The campaign against consulting firms has puzzled observers given China’s recent assurances that it was open for business again after three years of strict Covid measures. But the companies’ access to data on Chinese industries, including defence, finance and science, seemed to have raised alarms in the country’s security apparatus, which now takes precedence over economic decision-making.
The party has long struggled with the tension between its mistrust of the outside world and the need to maintain global ties to fuel its growth. However, Mr Xi stressed at the annual legislative session in March that he prioritized security, calling it the “foundation of development”.
“President Xi has made it quite clear that security is more important than development,” said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as director for China at the National Security Council under President Obama.
“If that means shutting down the consultancies and deterring foreign capital in the process, that’s a price he seems willing to pay,” added Mr. Hass to it.
Ultimately, Beijing is betting that access to China’s vast market is simply too tempting for foreign companies and governments to give up.
Mr Qin ended his four-day trip to Europe on Friday, after making additional stops in France and Norway, with competing interests looming everywhere.
In France, Mr. Qin to build on the friendly talks last month between Mr. Xi and President Emmanuel Macron, who had traveled to China with a bevy of French business leaders. Mr Qin met with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna on Wednesday and told her that “China is ready to work with France and other countries to build a bigger pie for cooperation and development opportunities.”
Mr Macron had argued for European “strategic autonomy” from Washington, particularly on controversial issues such as Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing. Beijing wants more countries in Europe to follow Macron’s example. But the continent remains deeply divided over China, especially as Beijing continues to provide economic and diplomatic support to Russia as it wages a war on Western Europe’s doorstep.
The caustic tone of Chinese diplomats has not done China any good either. Last month, his ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, caused a diplomatic storm after questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet states like Ukraine. The comment, which was rejected by the State Department, may have reflected an excessive level of confidence within China’s leadership about China’s appeal.
“China believes it has a relatively high degree of flexibility to use aggressive tactics to protect its interests because the Europeans cannot afford to allow breaches,” Mr Hass said. “We’ll see that theory put to the test in the future.”
Unease at Beijing’s assertiveness has pushed more countries deeper into the arms of the United States, including longstanding allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia, as well as cross-border nations like the Philippines. It has also brought India closer to Washington than ever, something that once seemed unthinkable in US foreign policy circles given Delhi’s history of non-alignment.
Analysts say these kinds of self-inflicted wounds are inevitable under Mr. Xi. The more Mr. Xi feels insecure and threatened, the more his nationalistic tendencies force him to push back, no matter the cost.
“The regime is in a defensive position after the failure of the ‘zero Covid’ policy and the economic slowdown, so Xi needs to put on a strong face,” said Suisheng Zhao, a US-China expert at the University of Denver . “As long as he feels vulnerable, he will try to show the world that he is powerful, steadfast and will defend all of China’s so-called vital interests.”
Still, talks this week between China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, pointed to a possible thaw in Beijing-Washington relations.
As relations with the West falter, China has intensified its courtship with the global south, holding recent meetings with the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan, while Mr. Xi will chair the first China-Central Asia Summit on May 18.
“From China’s perspective, given deteriorating relations with advanced, democratic countries in the global north, this makes sense,” said Bates Gill, executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
China’s intention is to “become a much bigger player in the global south,” added Mr. Gill so that it can “harness that influence within the larger geopolitical rivalry with the United States.”
Olivia Wang contributed research.
