Global Courant 2023-05-12 14:00:00
SINGAPORE — A reviving economy has pushed China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to record highs in the first three months of the year and is on track to reach all-time highs for the whole of 2023, an analysis published Friday shows.
Emissions grew by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to a year earlier, according to the analysis by the Center for Research into Energy and Clean Air (Crea).
The end of China’s zero-Covid policy and a drought that curbed hydropower production were the main reasons for the jump in emissions levels, noted the organization, which is registered in Finland and has staff across Asia and Europe.
But the rapid growth of investment in renewable energy is changing the outlook. Increasing wind and solar generation are expected to curb China’s massive appetite for fossil fuels, especially coal, meaning emissions from the world’s biggest carbon polluter could peak this decade and could begin to decline, the analysis said.
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of coal, which is burned in power plants and steel mills. Coal is the main source of greenhouse gas pollution driving climate change and what China decides on energy consumption has major implications for global climate diplomacy and climate impacts.
The country emits a third of all the world’s greenhouse gases, says the World Bank.
But it is also the world’s largest investor in renewable energy, and the government is accelerating spending on wind and solar power, as well as nuclear power, to meet China’s growing electricity needs.
According to the analysis, which Crea made for Carbon Brief, a news site about science and policy on climate change, China is targeting 160 gigawatts (GW) of new wind and solar capacity by 2023, up from 125 GW added in 2022.
Globally, new wind and solar capacity for 2022 totaled 267 GW, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.
“If the 160 GW target is met, the additional capacity would generate enough to cover a 3 percent increase in China’s electricity demand,” said Crea analysts Lauri Myllyvirta and Qi Qin in the report, which is based on official figures and commercial data.
Electricity demand growth in 2023, driven largely by industry, would likely be even greater because of the economic recovery and government stimulus, meaning coal production would also increase, the analysts said.
“For the remainder of the year, the government’s focus on economic growth means China’s emissions are likely to hit an all-time high in 2023, surpassing the previous peak in 2021,” they added.
In 2021, China’s carbon emissions will rise to nearly 12 billion tons, accounting for 33 percent of the global total for that year, according to the International Energy Agency. China’s emissions were relatively flat in 2022, falling 0.2 percent, it added.
