Global Courant
June 19 is a key day for the PASO of the Frente de Todos, in which today Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro and Daniel Scioli appear temporarily. That day expires the term for the political groups to inform the electoral justice of the integration and the regulation that this force will comply with for the primaries.
In the most orthodox official sector, the one that launched the presidential candidacy of Daniel Scioli and Victoria Tolosa Paz for the Buenos Aires governorship, it is concerned that some last-minute surprise does not appear. Already in informal conversations many differences appear. In sciolismo they point to Sergio Massa’s Renovation Front. Although the one who was left as representative of the national PJ, the main party of the FdT, is Gildo Insfrán from Formosa clearly aligned with Cristinismo.
The regulation is essential to make the competition transparent but also the tool that massismo and La Cámpora can use to win the largest number of applications. Doubts arise, for example, around the floor. Last week, Christian leaders threatened to raise the floor to 40% so that the Scioli-Tolosa Paz duo has fewer chances, they whitewashed. When something reasonable would be 15%.
Sergio Massa and Eduardo “Wado” De Pedro at the inauguration of the train from Mercedes to Tomás Jofré.
Another factor that can generate controversy is what system will be adopted to form the final list of candidates. The usual is the D’Hont system, which inserts the candidates in a list according to the percentages obtained by each payroll. But it could also be decided, arbitrarily, to apply a different system that benefits the majority.
The issue becomes relevant because now the STEP in Kirchnerism sound inevitable. The strategy seems to have taken a turn. At the beginning, in addition to Massa, Cristina Kirchner had replicated the proposal of a single candidate with the idea of the useful vote, that is, that there is only one such candidate on the night of the PASO, the FdT candidates were not relegated compared to those of Juntos for Change and Javier Milei. Now the prevailing idea is that single candidates leave a trail of Peronist leaders injured, or out of the game, who can go to play with other political spaces or not directly campaign for Kirchnerism. And the ruling party cannot give that advantage.
Scioli’s expectations could grow if the rival is Wado. “In some municipalities, Scioli is taller than Wado and the mayors take that into account,” they say in the environment of the ambassador in Brazil.
That Cristina has sent the Minister of the Interior to walk the country, does not yet archive the expectation that the presidential candidate will be Massa or Axel Kicillof. It all depends on how much level of ignorance De Pedro discounts and gains in voting intention. For Kirchnerism to have a chance of retaining the province of Buenos Aires, it needs a presidential candidate who is taller today than Kicillof for his re-election.
On the other side of the road, the motto seems to be “there will always be a reason to differentiate ourselves.” This time the discussion revolves around the governor of Córdoba and presidential candidate for a non-K Peronist space, Juan Schiaretti, who days ago assured that “what Argentina needs to leave behind so many years of decadence and frustration is to have a program of common government, make a new political alliance by those of us who agree and then a government of national unity”.
This Monday there will be no definition at the meeting of the JxC National Table, which brings together the presidents of the parties. However, the fight will be quantity vs. specific weight.
Juan Schiaretti, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri in 2015.
The majority, including Larretismo, the UCR and the Civic Coalition are in favor of the incorporation of Schiaretti and José Luis Espert into the anti-K coalition.
Morales was the one who proposed adding Schiaretti, after holding a dialogue with the Cordovan governor whom I have known for a long time. “I’m in the mood to add and put my shoulder in for what’s to come,” the Gringo told the governor of Jujuy.
In the Civic Coalition they remember that “we always had a vocation to expand and build wide spaces” and they work “for the unity and triumph of Together for Change” but also to add.
While in the case of Miguel Pichetto with Federal Republican Meeting, they assure that they would also support the expansion, because they consider that “it is always better to add” and clarifying that it is necessary to work for the candidacy of Luis Juez and Rodrigo De Loredo for Córdoba Capital, His position is that “we must try to add those who are aligned with our proposals.”
But those who oppose it are Patricia Bullrich, and probably also Mauricio Macri.
From Larretismo they list that in many provinces there are agreements with Peronists such as Miguel Pichetto, whom Macri appointed shortly before the lists closed; in Salta that he had the support of Bullrich; in San Luis with Claudio Poggi; in Tucumán with Germán Alfaro; in San Juan Marcelo Orrego; in the province of Buenos Aires with leaders who support the former Minister of Security such as Manuel Passaglia or Joaquín de la Torre.
Patricia Bullrich, along with Senator Luis Juez and National Deputy Rodrigo De Loredo.
In bullrichism they maintain that it is Larreta who wants to change the conformation of the coalition “because he is losing the internal one”, otherwise he would not move anything.
The two problems that afflict Juntos due to the change are the conflicting interests of Larreta and Bullrich, and the loss of loyalty of the electorate in the brand.
“We are running the risk that this is the first election in which we cannot guarantee to maintain the votes between the PASO and the election,” they say that Ernesto Sanz, one of the founders of Cambiemos, stated in a meeting with leaders of the coalition, worried because of the situation of the opposition.
Sanz is one of the leaders always consulted, who maintains that the night of the PASO there is a cultural battle for the reading of the result, which is what finally defines the election. In 2015, Cambiemos won that discussion by showing that he could be in the second round and win, and Kirchnerism, despite putting all the apparatus, could not overcome Macri’s initial victory over Scioli. In 2019 it was the other way around, when that night he showed forceful Kirchnerism and for more Plaza del Sí and the significant reduction in votes that Cambiemos made, he ended up losing the election.
Perhaps the biggest problem is that on the night of August 13 in Together for Change they must go out to explain that the votes of Rodríguez Larreta, Bullrich, Espert and some other presidential candidate, if there is one, must be added. Do they really add up?
