Global Courant
SINGAPORE — Early signs of hot, dry weather brought on by El Nino threaten food producers across Asia, while US growers are counting on heavier summer rains from the weather phenomenon to ease the effects of severe drought.
El Nino, a warming of water surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, is expected to develop in the coming months, according to meteorologists.
The impact of the phenomenon typically produces hot, dry weather in Asia and Australia, while bringing heavier-than-normal rainfall to the southern US and southern South America.
As El Nino looms, wheat production in Australia, the world’s second largest grain exporter, is expected to take a hit from dry weather, while palm oil and rice production is likely to suffer in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, forecasters predict. and analysts said.
Soils are drying out in India and Pakistan, which is expected to hamper summer crop planting, while El Nino is also expected to dampen the impact of South Asia’s crucial June-September monsoon season.
“We are looking at longer-term drought in Australia from now until at least August,” said Mr Chris Hyde, a meteorologist with US-based Maxar. “The seasonal outlook in India is a weaker than normal monsoon for the whole country, extending into Pakistan.”
Lower grain and oilseed production in Asia due to El Nino is likely to add to food inflation concerns for some of the world’s most vulnerable consumers, dashing hopes of further relief from lower prices in recent months is beaten.
Even if the weather pattern ultimately boosts crop production in the Americas, the impact in Asia could reverberate in global food markets.
Wheat prices fell to a two-and-a-half-year low this week, while corn and soybeans have fallen from multi-year highs in 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid-19 disrupted world supplies.
Australia, which has been producing huge wheat crops for three years, has had a good start to the 2023/24 planting season with adequate soil moisture, but is predicted to experience lower rainfall and higher temperatures during the crucial winter months in the southern hemisphere.
For Indonesia and Malaysia, which supply 80 percent of the world’s palm oil, drought in the second half of 2023 could reach 2024 yields.
“Dry weather concerns have increased compared to the situation a month ago. The outlook suggests that El Nino is developing,” said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at the National Australia Bank, noting that Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland have had little rainfall.
The start of monsoon rains in South Asia is likely to be slightly delayed this year and El Nino could hit rice and oilseed production.
“El Nino could develop in July…it could have an impact in the second half of the season,” said Dr OP Sreejith, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department.
