Global Courant 2023-04-13 22:49:04
Washington, DC – There is a lot of uncertainty about the alleged secret US government intelligence assessments circulating online: Are they authentic? Are they accurate? Who leaked them? And why?
Despite growing questions, experts seemed to agree on one thing: The leaks are detrimental to Washington’s intelligence gathering and foreign policy.
The documents include details of Western military support for Ukraine, information on Russia’s war effort, and intelligence gathered from allied states.
US officials have not denied the validity of the documents, acknowledging that they pose “a very serious risk to national security” and appear to be genuine, although altered in some cases. But they warned that the leaks “have the potential to spread disinformation”.
Analysts have said the leaks risk exposing intelligence sources and create diplomatic headaches for Washington.
Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official who also served with the CIA, called the leak “damaging.”
“I think the United States needs to better protect classified information,” Mulroy said.
The “biggest concern,” he added, is the potential compromise of intelligence-gathering methods, including human sources. Mulroy stressed the importance of the “ability to protect our assets, to protect our way of doing business, so that we know information that is necessary for policy making.”
While the intelligence assessments — which were intended for senior Pentagon officials — did not include names of possible human sources, experts said the revelations could help U.S. adversaries, particularly Russia, identify U.S. assets in their midst.
Glenn Carle, a former senior US intelligence official, described the leak as a “failure of great magnitude” that “could kill some people”.
“Every counterintelligence agency will now hurriedly and thoroughly find out who has access to that information in their country and reduce the number of possible individuals,” Carle told Al Jazeera’s Inside Story.
“And it’s very possible that they can identify the sources — and depending on the country, that will hurt or destroy their careers, or kill them.”
Carle said the leaks were an “unfolding disaster” because intelligence agents have an “ultimate responsibility” to protect their sources, who could be harmed by the slightest breach.
‘Embarrassing’
The leaked classified documents made headlines earlier this month, after circulating in some obscure corners of the internet weeks before. The Pentagon and the Justice Department are investigating the matter.
a Washington Post report published late Wednesday traced the files to a single poster on a private server on the online platform Discord. The user, known as OG, told friends he works at a military base, the paper reported.
David Silbey, an associate professor at Cornell University who specializes in defense policy and military history, said the fact that the documents were first posted on a private forum indicated that the alleged leaker had no intention of widely spreading the information.
“One of the strange things about the leaks from the very beginning was that this was a very strange place to show up,” Silbey told Al Jazeera.
“If it had been some kind of spy act, why put them on a random Discord server? You wouldn’t reveal it publicly anyway; you would just give it back to Russia. If it was a leak to share with the public, it’s about the worst possible way to leak it.”
He added that the leaker appeared to be “showing off”. But regardless of intent, the leak remains “significant,” Silbey said.
The documents show that the US has insider accounts of some countries it considers partners, including South Korea and Egypt, suggesting Washington could be spying on its allies.
For example, an opposition leader in South Korea has called on Seoul to “respond sternly to the spying on state secrets” after the leaks.
“It may pose risks in relations with our allies, which we have also collected (intelligence) according to these things; that will be a diplomatic rift,” said former Pentagon official Mulroy.
He added that while any feud with partners can be quickly mended because “many countries collect information on even their friends,” it’s still “shameful” when that notion goes public.
How did this happen?
Governments around the world keep a close eye on this type of information. Under United States law, it is a crime to disclose or even mishandle classified information.
But with countless intelligence and national security agencies, classified information can pass through many hands within the sprawling U.S. defense apparatus, making it susceptible to leakage, experts say.
For example, while the recently leaked intelligence assessments were intended for the eyes of top Pentagon officials, “many people” may have had access to them, Mulroy said.
“It is not only in the hands of the very highest people. It goes through people who prepare the instructions and the staff of several senior officials,” he told Al Jazeera.
Silbey, the professor, highlighted a dilemma for dealing with intelligence: the more government officials share information, the more it can increase their understanding of the issues and lead to better decision-making, but it also makes secrets easier to leak.
The US has seen several major leaks and classified information scandals in recent years.
“The US has this weird problem where they overclassify things, but also distribute a lot of classified material very widely,” Silbey told Al Jazeera.
In addition to investigating the leaker, Mulroy said he expected a review exploring “what went wrong”.
“Someone deliberately stole this information and put it online. And I don’t know why they would do that, but it definitely looks like a crime, and one that is designed to do serious damage to US national security,” Mulroy said.
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