Global Courant
BANGKOK – Thailand is likely to fall short of its goal of welcoming 30 million foreign tourists by 2023 amid fewer-than-expected visitors from China, according to Malaysia’s RHB Bank.
Inbound arrivals from China to Thailand could fall just under 5 million, well below the 7 million expected by the government, RHB Bank Senior Economist Barnabas Gan wrote in a note.
The possibility of China’s economic activity slowing in the second half of this year will dampen demand for outbound tourism, he noted.
Figures from hotel trading platform SiteMinder, Chinese shopping site Meituan and the Tourism Authority of Thailand released this week revealed that more than 1.3 million were travelers from China this year.
Between January 1 and June 25, 12.5 million foreign travelers entering Thailand reached 12.5 million, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Between December and May, a total of more than two million tourists have come to Thailand.
As a result, annual foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand will be between 26 and 28 million by 2023, according to RHB. That is still twice as much as last year (11.2 million).
Thailand welcomed about 40 million tourists before the 2019 pandemic, with Chinese tourists accounting for about a quarter of the total number of visitors.
“We expect full-year tourism arrivals to disappoint official estimates,” Mr Gan wrote. “Thailand’s tourism forecast remains neutral at best given the recent slowdown in inbound tourism.”
He also cited increasing tourism-led competition from neighboring countries and exacerbated domestic political noise as additional factors impacting prospects for Thailand’s tourism recovery going forward.
The bearish outlook for inbound Chinese visitors is also echoed by Thai travel agents. According to the Association of Thai Travel Agents, the number is below 5 million in terms of visa issues and security issues.
Media reports of extortion and tourist security have eroded confidence among Chinese travelers, said association president Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn. The government should push for more arrivals between July and September, the period that coincides with China’s summer vacations, to boost tourism, Sisdivachr said. BLOOMBERG
