Global Courant 2023-05-01 11:29:02
Record-breaking heat waves in April 2022 put 90% of people in India at increased risk of hunger, loss of income or premature death, according to us new study.
After 2022 it was named the hottest in 122 yearsextreme heat has resurfaced early this year with over 60% of India they recorded above-normal maximum temperatures for April, according to the country’s Meteorological Service. El Niño, a natural climate event that can raise global temperatures, is also expected to occur this year.
The increasing frequency of such deadly heat waves could halt or even reverse India’s progress in poverty reduction, food and income security, and gender equality, harming the quality of life of more than 1.4 billion Indians.
As a natural phenomenon, extreme heat is expected to occur once in a while 30 years or so in the South Asian subcontinent. This is no longer the case thanks to human-induced climate change. India suffered more than 24,000 heat wave-related deaths since 1992 alone, with the May 1998 heat wave being one of the most devastating as it claimed more than 3,058 lives.
During the heat waves of May 2010, the temperature in the western city of Ahmedabad reached 47.8 degrees Celsius and the number of heat-related hospitalizations of newborns increased by 43%prompting the city to become one of the first in the country to implement a heat action plan designed to guide heat wave preparations and emergency response, which has since been thousands of lives saved.
The 2015 heat wave killed more than 2,330 people and prompted the Ministry of Disaster Relief to issue guidelines to prevent deaths during heat waves and push Indian states to develop their own plans.
Failure to implement these strategies could hinder India’s economic progress. If proper heat action plans are not developed, excessive heat could cost India 2.8% and 8.7% of its GDP, respectively. 2050 And 2100 respectively. This is a worrying trend, especially given India’s goal of becoming a A $10 trillion economy by 2030.
A ‘real-feel’ measure
Heat action plans only make sense if they can represent the consequences of heat waves for the entire population. In order for Indian authorities to recognize when deadly heat is present (and emergency action is needed), the government needs to know what the conditions feel like to the public.
The authors of this paper used an environmental health measure popular in the US, the heat index, to determine how warm the human body is likely to feel in relation to air temperature and humidity levels. This helped us map people’s sensitivity to heatwaves across India and found that 90% of the country was at risk of serious impact from last year’s heatwave.
Accurately measuring India’s vulnerability to deadly temperatures is important. The measure used by the Indian government, known as the Climate Vulnerability Index, does not take into account the physical dangers of heat to human health.
Our research showed that combining air temperature and relative humidity levels gave our heat index a “real-feel” measure of extreme heat. In other words, how extreme heat felt to people who experienced it.
Stop underestimating heat waves
Underestimating the effects of extreme heat in India could reduce or even reverse progress on a range of sustainable development goals. These include poverty, hunger, health and well-being, equality, economic growth and industrial innovation and biodiversity.
This is especially concerning as India’s progress towards meeting these goals has slowed over the past 20 years, while extreme weather events have increased.
For example, extreme heat can exacerbate drought by drying out the soil and disrupting rainfall patterns, ultimately affecting crop production and food security, endangering the health and well-being of much of Indian society.
Being a primarily agricultural economy, productivity losses in this sector threaten the jobs and health of millions of marginal and small landowning farmers, as well as their ability to adapt and build a new livelihood.
Another worrying trend with heat waves is increasing water and insect borne diseaseswhich could further strain India’s already beleaguered public health system.
Every year, millions of people migrate from rural areas to India’s cities in search of a better quality of life. But heat waves also have disastrous consequences for the country’s urban population.
Virtually the entire city of Delhi and its 32 million inhabitants were threatened by the heat waves of 2022. Most migrants are forced to settle in the poorest areas of the city, where the effects of heat waves are particularly catastrophic. Unfortunately, these communities also lack the resources to purchase air conditioners that would ease their misery.
Running water is scarce in many poor parts of New Delhi and people need government water supplies to brave the summer heat. Photo: iStock
The current procedures for assessing India’s sensitivity to climate change will not help people withstand the exceptional heat of recent years and should be upgraded immediately.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that heat waves in South Asia will become stronger and more frequent this century. Heat action plans will be crucial in accelerating efforts to mitigate and adapt the impacts, but they must reflect the complexity of India’s vulnerability to climate change.
The emphasis on making Indian cities resilient to extreme heat is critical as cities will see a population explosion in the next 10 years, with 70% of India’s building stock yet to create. There is an opportunity to incorporate methods of adaptation to extreme heat by designing new homes that are easier to keep cool.
With many more people in India expected to be hit by even greater heat extremes in the future will require finance, urban planning and education to help people adapt.
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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