Global Courant 2023-04-25 19:45:26
French President Emmanuel Macron, right, poses for a photo with a reenactor soldier at a ceremony as part of World War I centenary celebrations – Philippe Wojazer/Reuters Pool
While citizens of other nations try to escape the Crisis-hit Sudanese capital Khartoum, one thing stands out: it is an ‘every man for himself’ scrambling. Armed forces from around the world and across the region are hurriedly trying to get their citizens out, but one government – or perhaps a future government – is notable for its absence. That is the European Union.
That’s odd, because the EU – unlike NATO – has theoretically had a variety of different rapid reaction forces for decades, way back to the European Rapid Operational Force announced in 1995 (and disbanded in 2012). The latest foolish plan along these lines is French President Macron’s call last month for a European army capable of acting independently of the US and NATO, including a 5,000-strong “rapid reaction force”.
In fairness to Macron, he was the one who called the warring Sudanese generals and brokered a kind of ceasefire, which helped a lot in the initial rescue efforts. He pushed for an open door as it was in the interest of both sides for foreigners to leave unharmed, but it was nevertheless a small diplomatic victory for Macron.
Macron, of course, needs every victory he can get, given that France is currently effectively in a state of insurrection. The other lever that French presidents traditionally turn to in times of domestic crisis is US or NATO bashing. Macron’s recent calls for an EU rapid reaction force could be dismissed as a swipe at NATO, except that he is apparently serious about trying to develop some sort of military capability for the EU alone.
It’s not the most foolish insult to NATO and the US ever made by a French president – that would probably be Charles De Gaulle’s call in 1966 to leave and stay away – but it is intensely rude and unhelpful in these tense times. . Macron’s apologists would no doubt point to the Aukus Pact and claim that the UK and US are drifting away from defending Europe; but Aukus is the exact opposite of that. It’s a focus on the real emerging threat: China.
We must not forget that NATO was founded in 1947, the same year that the US Joint Chiefs of Staff rose up to deal with the new threats of a Cold War world. Today there is talk of creating a civilian equivalent of the Joint Chiefs to effectively and efficiently lead US civilian departments against the burgeoning Chinese threat. France could learn from this kind of thinking.
Anything that undermines the cohesion between the West and NATO is music to Chinese ruler Xi Jinping’s ears. Xi knows that his main adversary, the US, must build and strengthen a network of alliances as the red dragon begins to spread its wings. While the current focus is on Taiwan, analysts are taking a broader view of the humble deference Putin is forced to show Xi.
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It is not too early to wonder what the future holds for the Russian Far East – parts of which have a Chinese ethnic majority – in the event of a collapsed or severely weakened regime in Moscow. Given Xi’s clear intention to unite China and the Chinese, including Taiwan and elsewhere, it is to be hoped that the right people in the Pentagon and elsewhere are already thinking about this.
Such a shift in focus by China could happen sooner than one might think. If we assume that the current war in Ukraine would end with the collapse of Putin’s regime, it might not just be Ukraine that eventually joined NATO. A heavily weakened Russia, possibly newly free and democratic in that scenario, could also ask to join NATO. The motherland would certainly need new friends in that case. Such an upheaval would bring NATO face to face with the People’s Republic over the soon-to-be contested Siberian tundra.
However things are going in Ukraine and with China, a strong NATO is absolutely essential for the security of the West – and bluntly, for the security of France. NATO members must and must shoulder their share of the burden by spending 2% of GDP on defence: currently only seven of the 30 member states do so. France, for example, does not. It is shameful that the US accounts for as much as 70 percent of the alliance’s defense spending, and even more shameful that Macron is calling on European members to commit their already too small forces to a mickey-mouse game EU force structure no one will accept seriously.
Anything that undermines NATO is playing with fire. Even if enough troops could be deprived of existing NATO commitments or wear a double hat, an EU force would be crippled at birth by the very nature of the EU. Agreement on his mission, his command and on its actual deployment would be Byzantine and unlikely to happen.
The EU military would also be paralyzed by the military limitations of its members. The recent French deployment to Mali exposed one of the main shortcomings of such a force: airlift. In the case of Mali, Britain provided the necessary American C-17 and Chinook heavy transports and helicopters. The British C-17s are the only long-range heavy military transport aircraft in Western Europe: the British Chinooks are the only viable heavy helicopters.
Part of Putin’s calculation when he invaded Ukraine was NATO’s ineffectiveness and lack of cohesion. The concerted response of the US, UK and many European countries to arm and support Ukraine came as an unpleasant shock to him.
This reaction has not gone unnoticed in Beijing either. Any invasion of Taiwan would entail a 110-mile (180 km) crossing of the Taiwan Strait: a feat that would have been impossible without naval, aerial and missile bombing supremacy, as well as Taiwan’s complete physical and military isolation. The mere existence of a strong and united NATO makes those conditions almost impossible.
President Macron must understand, despite his domestic political problems, that the continued push for an unviable EU force independent of NATO and the US fundamentally undermines the defense of the West. The same goes for the defense of France.
Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer who served in the SAS and as Commander of the Royal Irish during the 2003 invasion of Iraq when his pre-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world
