Global Courant
There appears to be a potential major development in Ukraine aimed at a negotiated deal with Russia.
“Ukraine is ready for negotiations and a peace agreement,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said, “if Russia changes the previously stated goals of the special military operation.”
Okeksiy Reznikov (from Twitter)
His statement came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Kherson on June 8 to update on the ongoing offensive in the Zaphorize region.
No doubt Zelensky got news he didn’t want to hear: the Ukrainian offensive is not going well and the Ukrainian army’s losses are heavy. The Russians succeeded in knocking out many Ukrainian tanks, including French-supplied AMX-10s and German-made Leopard tanks transferred from Poland to Ukraine.
The Russians also destroyed the critical Hensoldt TRML-4D AESA radar, part of the Iris-T air defense system which had been brought into range to support the Ukrainian forces on the offensive. The neutralization has given Russian troops command of the skies over the battlefield.
Iris T hidden among trees with soldier on top of radar prior to destruction
We don’t know much about Russian casualties or material losses. We do know that what was arguably Ukraine’s most modernized brigade – the 47th Mechanized, trained in Europe by NATO, equipped with night vision goggles, thermal imaging equipment and infantry fighting vehicles, including the American Bradley, and supported by a massive amount of artillery, including HIMARS – failed to gain ground or push the Russians back.
It’s unclear how much total damage was done to this brigade, but other units were mauled – so much so that some battalions refused to fight.
Ukraine still has a very large force that can bring it into battle, so the offensive is still in its early stages. But the Russians also have a huge reserve force, perhaps 200,000 soldiers, which they are starting to deploy.
Zelensky cannot openly ask the Russians for a deal because that would destroy his relationship with the US and other NATO countries and weaken him in Ukraine.
The question is, does Reznikov mean that his statement requires the Russians to agree to change their objectives prior to negotiations? Or does he mean that the Ukrainian position is that a deal requires a change in the objectives of the Russian special military operation?
If he asks the Russians to change their position ahead of a negotiation, it will be rejected outright. So far, there has been no comment from the Kremlin and it is likely that Russian officials are trying to find out what Reznikov means and whether he actually has the authority to negotiate.
Recently, Zelensky wanted to fire Reznikov for corruption. In heavily censored Ukraine, stories were leaked on Reznikov’s dirty hands. Then mysteriously all was forgiven. So the relationship between Zelensky and Reznikov must be difficult. Does Reznikov speak for the rest of Ukraine’s military leaders? Was Zelensky afraid of a possible coup d’état if he continued with his corruption threat?
Did Reznikov move alone? That is one of the propositions that the Russians have to test.
Russia can try to smoke out whether Reznikov is serious – and capable of negotiating – by putting forward ideas of its own aimed at their special military operations objectives. This can be done through public channels or through intermediaries or trusted intermediaries.
The last time there were serious negotiations between the two sides was when former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett commuted between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. He says he was on the verge of a quid pro quo when his effort was undermined by the Biden administration, forcing Zelensky to call off any deal.
Illustrative: Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett shake hands during their meeting in Sochi, Russia, on Friday, October 22, 2021. Photo: Evgeny Biyatov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool
According to what Bennett has stated, the main issue at the time was the preservation of Zelensky and his government, something that Putin was willing to guarantee. Putin is also said to have abandoned Russia’s goal of “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.
Moscow and Washington say Bennett mischaracterized the outcome of the negotiations.
In 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, US President John F. Kennedy bypassed his national security team and sent his brother, Robert Kennedy, to meet secretly with the Russian ambassador to the US, Anatoly Dobrynin. Robert Kennedy was Attorney General at the time.
The question Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev had was whether Robert Kennedy was just freelancing or really speaking for his brother. A Soviet journalist, Alexei Adzhubei, the son-in-law of Nikita Khrushchev, interviewed President Kennedy, not for publication, on January 30, 1962. His big question was about the authority of the president’s brother. Kennedy confirmed that his brother represented him.
US President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (R) and USSR leader Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev go to their first meeting on June 3, 1961 at the start of the East-West talks in Vienna, a year before the start of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. President Kennedy ordered a blockade of Cuba in October 1962 after the Soviet Union began shipping missiles to the island. Photo: INTERPHOTO
That opened the door to a series of secret negotiations that resulted in the withdrawal of Russian missiles from Cuba and the removal of US nuclear-armed Jupiter missiles from Turkey, though the Jupiter portion of the deal was not announced at the time.
If Reznikov is indeed authorized to enter into real negotiations with the Russians, he must be able to prove it to the Russians.
If Reznikov operates under his own authority but represents a significant part of the Ukrainian security apparatus, then his initiative will interest the Russians as a way to break Ukrainian unity.
But the most important possibility is that there can be real negotiation.
If this gamble turns out to be nothing, the war will continue.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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