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MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki mentioned Tuesday that whereas former President Trump trailed Vice President Kamala Harris by three factors, the previous president had underperformed in earlier elections and nonetheless received or got here inside a whisker of successful.
“In case you’re a Republican, it’s also possible to take some consolation in the truth that when you take a look at the Labor Day polls, Donald Trump is not any stranger to this place. He is behind on Labor Day within the presidential election,” Kornacki mentioned.
In response to a nationwide polling common, Harris leads Trump 48% to 45%, about two months earlier than Election Day.
“In 2016, he was on common 5 factors behind Hillary Clinton after Labor Day. In fact, Trump received in 2016. In 2020, he was on common a lot additional behind Joe Biden. And but he did not come again and win, however he got here shut, Trump did, within the Electoral Faculty,” Kornacki mentioned.
MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki mentioned Tuesday that Donald Trump could also be in a greater place than Republicans assume based mostly on previous elections, regardless of his assist for VP Harris. (Screenshot/MSNBC)
KAMALA HARRIS BEATS TRUMP ON ‘VIBES,’ CNN’S FAREED ZAKARIA SAYS
“From Trump’s standpoint, it is definitely higher to be three factors behind than the final two occasions,” Kornacki added.
He additionally famous that Democrats can be pleased with the nationwide polling common as a result of Harris was forward, a stark distinction to President Biden’s polls earlier than he dropped out of the race.
CNN knowledge guru Henry Enten made an identical argument in August, arguing that Trump has traditionally been underestimated in polls.
Enten mentioned Trump was underrated by a median of 9 factors in 2016 and by a median of 5 factors in 2020 in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump speaks at a marketing campaign rally in Asheboro, North Carolina on Wednesday. (Kate Medley for The Washington Submit by way of Getty Photographs)
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“The underside line is that this: In case you have any concept — when you’re a Kamala Harris fan and also you need to pop that champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is completely on this race. If we had a polling shift like we have seen in earlier years, from now till the ultimate consequence, Donald Trump would truly win. I am not saying that is going to occur, however I’m saying he is completely on this race based mostly on the place he’s now, in comparison with the place he was in earlier years,” Enten mentioned, based mostly on polls from early August.
Nate Silver, a polling and knowledge guru, joined Fox Information’ Bret Baier in August and in addition famous that Trump has been underestimated previously.
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“One, we have got three months to go. There’s going to be extra surprises. And two, the polls have been mistaken earlier than. Within the final two basic elections, they’ve underestimated Trump,” he mentioned, noting that Harris had a slight lead within the polls on the time, all throughout the margin of error.
MSNBC’s Kornacki says Trump is trailing Harris, however is in a greater place than within the earlier two elections
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