Global Courant 2023-05-13 17:00:00
The federal opposition conservatives have increased their lead over other parties in terms of support and leadership in the vote, with minority liberals now under threat in areas that were strongholds for them in the previous election, according to the latest Nanos Research tracking.
(Nanos research)
The last tracking federal ballots — asking respondents if they would consider voting for each of the federal parties — shows Pierre Poilivre’s Conservatives leading with 35.2 percent and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals with 27.7 percent — more than seven percentage points behind. The two parties were statistically tied a few months ago, each hovering around 33 percent on Feb. 10. But since then, the Liberals have been on a negative trajectory. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, meanwhile, ranks third with 21.7 percent.
Nik Nanos, CTV News pollster and president of Nanos Research, says the drop in liberal support is not caused by a rise in the conservatives, who have not risen significantly since February.
“But where the change is in the liberal numbers. They’re down,” Nanos said on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line. “When the liberal numbers have anything with a two before it, it’s not good for (them).”
And when the NDP ballots get into the 20s, it creates a “perfect scenario for the Conservatives” because it results in the Progressive vote splitting, Nanos said.
Poilièvre, meanwhile, also has the advantage when it comes to who Canadians most want to be prime minister. The Conservative leader is at 28.3 percent, followed by Trudeau at 23.9 percent.
(Nanos research)
SEAT PROJECTS
The outlook for the Liberals gets even bleaker when you look at Nanos’ monthly seat projections.
The latest projections — for which polling data is modeled to show which party is capable of winning more seats if an election were held — show Trudeau’s Liberals down everywhere except Quebec and the Prairies (where they haven’t fallen, but remain flat ).
Nanos said ridings currently in play or at risk for the Liberals include those in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and British Columbia, which are “hugely important battlegrounds.” He pointed to riding in the Greater Toronto Area and the “905 belt” as examples of liberal strengths in the last election, but where they are now losing ground.
GTA May 2023 projections vs 2021 federal election results (Nanos Research)
The top right GTA map shows a healthy amount of red, representing the rides where the Liberals were winners in the 2021 federal election. It shows that the GTA remained a Liberal stronghold, with those rationales that helped the party establish another minority government. to win. However, the map on the left represents the latest seat projections from Nanos and a changing picture for the Liberals.
“The other card, if you see something that’s black, that’s the margin of victory — it’s too close to call because it’s less than two percent,” Nanos said. “If it’s gray, it’s two to seven percent. Look at all the ridings that are basically in play right now.”
Those rides include those in the Oakville and Mississauga areas, as well as Durham Region and Cambridge.
“Looking at this battlefield, like battlefield Toronto, I think the Liberals need to think about their strategy and how they will try to hold their own because they are already in a minority position. Losing seats in Toronto is just fundamentally bad news for the red team .And there are some critical suburban rides, the Mississaugas, Oakvilles, … that are in play.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts from. The next episode will be released on Wednesday, May 24.
