Nonetheless an enigma, Prigozhin resurfaces in Belarus

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Considered one of my readers took word that I used to be unsuitable about Yevgeney Prigozhin. I had argued that Prigozhin was now not the chief of Wagner and had been sidelined and was lacking. However I used to be not proper, assuming the information reviews that Prigozhin has surfaced in Belarus are appropriate.

The official Russian press is totally silent on the matter, so what we’ve to go on is a quick assertion attributed to Prigozhin and a really fuzzy video of Prigozhin welcoming the Wagner troops. The individual pictured might be anybody however is claimed to be Prigozhin.

Presumably, these troops arriving in Belarus had been half of a giant convoy that traveled from Russia final week.

I’m engaged on the idea that the Prigozhin assertion and the video are actual and that Prigozhin is again in charge of Wagner forces in Belarus: The person who at one second was seen as a traitor is now again in enterprise.

There could also be good cause to welcome Wagner forces in Belarus, because the authorities there are keenly nervous that Poland might launch an assault on the border in an effort to separate Russian military forces in Ukraine. The looks of Wagner troops in Belarus seems to checkmate any thought of a Polish assault.

My good good friend Larry Johnson has the opinion that the Prigozhin affair was contrived and that Putin and the GRU (Russia’s navy intelligence) labored collectively to show Western intelligence meddling in Russia and to determine disloyal navy leaders. This argument suits with unconfirmed tales that as many as 16 Russian navy leaders have already got been purged.

Whenever you cope with Russia you all the time should attempt to separate what’s actual from what’s pretend. Typically in Russia, that is known as Matryoshka, named after the well-known Matryoshka dolls that characteristic one doll inside one other. I preserve a set that I picked up a very long time in the past when Yeltsin was Russia’s President. Pictured beneath is a Gorbachev set.

A matryoshka doll from the Gorbachev period. Photograph: mercari.com

The issue with the conspiracy idea is that it could have been massively dangerous for Putin. There are nonetheless many questions.

Why did Putin attain out to his pal in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to assist dealer a cope with Prigozhin? Or did Lukashenko really strategy Prigozhin after which contain Putin?

Why did Putin make a cope with Prigozhin that, whereas halting the coup operation, left Prigozhin in a robust and harmful place? Equally, why did Putin name it an rebel and traitorous after the deal had been struck, however then reverse course once more in order that Prigozhin is again in operation in Belarus?

How come the military didn’t ship forces to Moscow to dam Prigozhin? In actual fact, the forces coming to Mosccow’s rescue had been the FSB, the police, and a Chechen unit.

After the deal brokered by Lukashenko, the Russian authorities started cracking down on Prigozhin’s holdings. The raid on his mansion in St. Petersburg was filmed and broadcast in Russia in an effort to discredit him. On the similar time, Prigozhin’s social community, which is in depth, was allegedly taken over by the authorities. Prigozhin misplaced his multi-billion greenback meals and provisions contract with the Russian military. It was reported that Prigozhin’s individuals working in operations exterior of Russia, notably in Africa, had been going to get replaced by common Russian military personnel (which led to robust complaints from the chief of the Central African Republic and others).

On this picture taken from video launched by Belarusian Protection Ministry through VoenTV on Friday, July 14, 2023, Belarusian troopers attend a coaching session given by mercenary fighters from Wagner non-public navy firm close to Tsel village, about 90 kilometers (about 55 miles) southeast of Minsk, Belarus.

Moscow backed down on changing Wagner forces in Africa. Only recently there was a “regular” rotation of Wagner personnel.

Who really controls Wagner additionally isn’t in any respect clear. Putin had chosen Andrei Troshev (Gray Hair”) to go Wagner, one thing he made clear on June twenty ninth when he met with Wagner commanders, together with Prigozhin. Is Troshev in command of Wagner forces in Belarus, in addition to in Russia and Ukraine? The reply is that we don’t know. If Troshev is in cost, and Prigozhin is in Belarus, what’s Prigozhin’s function? If the information reviews are correct, is Prigozhin now in general command of Wagner forces in Belarus? Does that stretch to the Wagner forces in Russia and Ukraine?

Then there’s the issue of “Normal Armageddon” Sergey Surovikin, who nonetheless is lacking. There’s an unconfirmed rumor that he’s going to fulfill with Putin this week. The difficulty with Surovikin is whether or not he was related to Russian military leaders who supported a coup that might change Chief of the Normal Employees Gerasimov and Protection Minister Shoigu. We don’t know what the Kremlin is aware of or doesn’t find out about any of this.

Lastly, there’s a doubtlessly associated problem of the obvious dismissal of Normal Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Mixed Arms Military preventing in Zaphorize, Ukraine. Popov was a well-liked and efficient commander, and his success in pushing again the Ukrainian offensive in Zaphorize ought to have made him a hero. He was fired when he overtly complained about “the shortage of counter-battery fight, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and accidents of our brothers from enemy artillery.”

Normal Ivan Popov. Photograph:

Prigozhin mentioned quite a bit worse issues than Popov, however he was by no means fired or criticized or arrested. In actual fact, when he voiced a lot of his complaints the military management was compelled to repair a few of the issues and supply help, whether or not it was shortages of ammunition and provides or defending the flanks of Wagner forces preventing in Bakhmut.

(A Telegram channel described as “near Prigozhin” has launched figures on Wagner losses in Ukraine. Based on this channel, most of the killed had been recruited from Russian jail camps.)

Plainly Popov’s getting fired, in the course of the conflict, has extra to do with excessive nervousness within the military management about who’s reliable and who shouldn’t be then with Popov’s particular complaints. One is reminded of George Patton’s elimination within the Second World Warfare, partially for slapping a wounded soldier however, in actuality, as a result of he had turn into a nuisance. After Normandy, Patton could be introduced again, largely as a result of he was an ideal navy chief and, regardless of his foibles, was cherished by his troops and was a fearless, efficient commander. What’s going to turn into of Popov we have no idea.

It stays unclear how critical the scenario is for Putin. If the Prigozhin affair was a charade, what might be gained by it on the peak of the Ukrainian offensive? Until, in fact, the military needed out of the conflict, not as a result of Russia was successful or dropping, however as a result of the human price of the conflict was too painful. Many senior officers on the Russian facet have been killed within the battle. Many troopers have been killed in battle. Regardless of numerous Kremlin opinion polls, among the many educated elite of the nation there have to be nice unhappiness over the conflict. That actually would spill over into the navy management ranks.

The opposite issue, hardly ever accounted for, is that Russia’s elite courses have been reduce off from the West and, in a lot of high-profile circumstances, have misplaced their property overseas due to Western sanctions. These seizures on the one hand and journey and banking restrictions on the opposite will need to have brought on nice unhappiness among the many particular group beforehand rewarded by Putin for his or her loyalty. After they evaluate Ukraine with their private fortunes, they naturally favor their private fortunes – in the event that they nonetheless have them.

Russia has all the time trusted its elites, who’re generously rewarded for loyalty to the federal government. If the elites defect, then Putin faces an almost insurmountable downside staying in energy.