Global Courant 2023-05-14 12:48:31
A person holds a ballot paper at a polling station in Ankara for parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023.
Breath Altan | Afp | Getty Images
Millions of Turks will go to the polls on Sunday in what will be Turkey’s most sweeping elections in two decades, and one whose results will have repercussions far beyond its own borders.
The country with a population of 85 million will hold both its presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. For the presidency – which is expected to be close – if no candidate wins more than 50%, the vote will move to a second round two weeks later.
Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces his toughest ordeal yet after two decades in power, grappling with public anger over deteriorating economic conditions and the government’s slow response to a series of devastating earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people. came to life.
His main opponent, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), is running as a unity candidate representing six different parties that all want to see Erdogan removed from power.
In a potentially groundbreaking development, one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, withdrew from the race on Thursday. As a former CHP member, he was heavily criticized for dividing the opposition vote in a way that would damage Kilicdaroglu’s chances.
With Ince out of the race, his votes may go to Erdogan’s top challenger Kilicdaroglu, helping him immensely and portending more trouble for 69-year-old Erdogan.
Another crucial factor will be turnout: More than 5 million young Turks will vote for the first time, and the greater the turnout of young people, the better for the challenger and the worse for the incumbent, election analysts say.
Campaign posters of the 13th presidential candidate and Chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kiliçdaroglu (L), and the President of the Republic of Turkey and the President of the Justice Party (AKP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R), are displayed.
Tunahan Turhan | Sopa Images | Rocket | Getty Images
With such a high-stakes match, many inside and outside the country are asking whether Erdogan can contest the result if he doesn’t win.
“The most likely tactic he will use to try to tip the vote will be to use influence in the electoral council (the YSK), courts and media to build a narrative that whether elections should be held again or that they are illegitimate,” said Ryan Bohl, a senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Rane. Erdogan did this in 2019 when his party narrowly lost the Istanbul mayoral race, only to lose again by a larger margin after demanding a repeat.
Some even fear violence and instability if the result is contested, which would lead to more volatility in Turkey’s already damaged economy. Turkish and foreign analysts and human rights activists have been sounding the alarm for years increasingly autocratic government from the government of Erdogan.
CNBC has reached out to the Turkish presidency office for comment.
‘There is so much at stake’
The outcome of the election and its impact on stability in the country, which sits at a crossroads between Europe and Asia and is home to NATO’s second largest army, is of paramount importance both nationally and internationally .
“So much is at stake for President Erdogan and his AKP for the first time as his 20-year rule over Türkiye may come to an end as the united opposition has managed to maintain and maintain a strong alliance.” on a hopeful positive campaign,” said Hakan Akbas, general manager of Strategic Advisory Services, a consulting firm based between Istanbul and Washington.
This is similar, he noted, to “what Istanbul mayor Emrak Imamoglu did to win twice against Erdogan’s AKP candidate in the 2019 mayoral election.”
Imamoglu, a popular figure who was widely expected to run for president as a formidable opponent of Erdogan, was sentenced in December to nearly three years in prison and barred from politics for what a court described as insulting the judges of the Supreme Electoral Council. YSK). Imamoglu and his supporters say the allegations are purely political and have been influenced by Erdogan and his party to sabotage his political ambitions.
Turkish President and Justice and Development Party (AK) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks as he and his wife Emine Erdogan attend an election rally in Mardin, Turkiye on May 10, 2023.
Turkish Presidency | Handout | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Politically, Turkey is deeply divided, with candidates using polarizing and fear-mongering messages in an attempt to garner voters. But for most Turkish citizens, economy comes first as the country faces a cost of living crisis with official inflation hovering around 50% and a currency that has lost 77% of its value against the dollars In five years.
“The next president of Türkiye will rise to the challenge of restoring economic stability and state institutions such as the central bank, treasury and wealth fund and restore investor confidence,” Akbas told CNBC.
“The country suffers from historically low foreign exchange reserves, widening current account deficit, artificially overvalued local currency, undisciplined budget balance and persistent high inflation.”
Even if Erdogan wins, Akbas said, “after years of low interest rates that contributed to high inflation and currency devaluation, he should probably adjust his economic policies to address the current economic crisis and attract investment.”
