Global Courant
Robert Fico, Slovakia’s three-time prime minister, has a chance to return to power in hard-fought snap elections on Saturday, raising the prospect of the Central European country abandoning its staunch support for neighboring Ukraine.
Fico’s SMER-SSD party has a narrow lead in two of the latest four opinion polls over the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS), which has vowed to stay the course on foreign policy.
Late voter shifts give PS an edge in the other two polls.
A government led by Fico’s party could forge an alliance with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, who has been an outlier in Ukraine and has sparred with the European Union over the rule of law.
Such an alliance could be strengthened if Poland’s conservative PiS wins a new term in October, although PiS has an aggressive view of Russia.
The leading Slovak party is expected to get the first chance from liberal President Zuzana Caputova to form a cabinet.
But who succeeds will depend on the results of six smaller parties, as SMER-SSD and PS will not win a majority and will need several allies in the 150-seat parliament.
The third largest party and possible kingmaker is the moderate-left Hlas (voice) of Peter Pellegrini, a former member of SMER-SSD and prime minister in 2018-2020. He has kept his options open but is seen closer to Fico.
Protests against the government
Fico, 59, resigned in 2018 following anti-corruption protests following the murder of an investigative journalist.
He adopted more pro-Russian positions, reinforced by disinformation on social networks, in opposition to a center-right coalition that ruled the country from 2020.
That coalition fell apart last year and was replaced by an interim cabinet.
Fico has pledged to end military aid to Ukraine, a sharp reversal from Slovakia’s current position as a supplier of heavy equipment to its eastern neighbor.
“We reject statements and positions that state that the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also our conflict,” Fico told Reuters news agency in an email.
Political analyst Grigorij Meseznikov said that despite the fiery rhetoric, Fico had a reputation for avoiding unnecessary clashes with Brussels or NATO allies, but that as an ally Orbán would encourage him.
“Orban has managed to at least hinder the adoption of (Russian) sanctions packages… Fico will do the same,” he said. “They will support each other.”
“He will stop the guns (for Ukraine), he will get support for that.”
Migration policy
Fico has criticized Slovakia’s admission of migrants and said in a televised debate on Tuesday that he would immediately impose controls at the border with Hungary.
Fico’s policy would depend on which coalition SMER-SSD could form. Potential partners range from Hlas to the far-right Republika, which foreign diplomats said would be a red line for Slovakia’s allies.
Centrist liberal voters have flocked to the non-parliamentary PS, led by Michal Simecka, an Oxford political science graduate and vice-president of the European Parliament, 39.
PS has ruled out cooperation with extremists or Fico.
The party has run a strongly pro-European campaign and is said to be closer to the Czech Republic within Central Europe.
It is open to cooperation with small conservative parties, although such an alliance may be unstable due to ideological differences.
Fico was criminally prosecuted in 2022 for using sensitive information about political opponents. The charges, which he denied, have been dropped, although the investigation continues.
Fico has called for the removal of the country’s special prosecutor who handles high-level corruption cases.
Such moves would be closely watched by Brussels, which could withhold EU subsidies – as it has done in the rows with Poland and Hungary – if it considers them to be contrary to the rule of law, an EU official told diplomat to Reuters.
