World Courant
In a significant cupboard reshuffle, President Vladimir Putin is poised to dismiss Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s 12-year protection minister, from his publish and appoint him secretary of the Safety Council, a place that Nikolai Patrushev since 2008.
The transfer has sparked hypothesis amongst Kremlin watchers, intrigued by what might have led to the shock transfer, and what it means for Shoigu, Patrushev and Andrei Belousov, the deputy prime minister and economist who is about to turn out to be the brand new minister of to turn out to be Russia’s protection.
Shoigu is named a Putin loyalist; the pair have been photographed collectively on many a male fishing expedition via the depths of Siberia, and led the Russian forces throughout their invasion of Ukraine.
Belousov’s appointment is predicted to be confirmed by the Federation Council this week.
“Right now the winner on the battlefield is the one who’s extra open to innovation, extra open to implementation as rapidly as doable,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov instructed the press. “It’s logical that the president has determined at this present stage that the Ministry of Protection ought to be headed by a civilian.”
Observers mentioned the reshuffle is a sign that Russia has no plans to finish its conflict in opposition to Ukraine, now in its third yr.
“This means that the Kremlin shouldn’t be trying to depart Ukraine, however to increase its capability to climate the battle for so long as doable,” mentioned Jeff Hawn, PhD candidate and visiting lecturer on the London Faculty’s division of worldwide historical past of Economics. “Russia may be very restricted within the extent to which it may well improve its scale as a consequence of financial shortcomings. Nonetheless, they will preserve a sure degree of exhaustive warfare. And we hope to have the ability to try this in all probability longer than Ukraine can.”
Shoigu will quickly assume the function of deputy president of the Navy-Industrial Fee. He can even head the Federal Service for Navy-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), which is chargeable for coping with navy {hardware} with different nations.
“Now that an economist is taking on the Ministry of Protection and the previous minister is taking over a coverage and advisory function, the technocrats are on the rise. Nonetheless, the aim shouldn’t be peace, however a extra environment friendly conflict,” wrote Mark Galeotti, the writer of a number of books on Putin and Russia, in The Spectator. “Whereas Putin focuses on the long run, with ‘particular navy operation’ now the central organizing precept of his regime, he is aware of he wants technocrats to maintain his conflict machine operating.”
Putin’s decree additionally removes the FSVTS from the Protection Ministry, leaving Shoigu accountable solely to the president himself.
“In simply over two years of the particular navy operation (in Ukraine), Sergei Shoigu has nonetheless outgrown the extent of the Minister of Protection when it comes to his skilled degree,” mentioned Alexander Mikhailov of the Bureau of Navy-Political Evaluation, a Russian protection group. assume tank, instructed state information company TASS, noting Shoigu’s degree of worldwide experience and expertise overseas.
Navy skilled Rob Lee wrote of
“The massive loser on this scenario seems to be Patrushev, who was additionally one of many key choice makers behind the invasion of Ukraine.”
It’s nonetheless unclear the place Patrushev’s new project can be.
Nonetheless, Shoigu’s new placements might not be the promotions they appear.
The reshuffle comes lower than a month after Deputy Protection Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested on bribery costs.
“The Safety Council is changing into a reservoir for Putin’s ‘former’ key figures – who can’t be let go, however there isn’t any place to deal with them,” political analyst and founding father of R.Politik Tatiana Stanovaya wrote on Telegram, referring to the latest turbulence in Shoigu’s profession.
Ivanov loved a repute for his lavish life-style and is accused of pocketing cash meant for the reconstruction of the battle-ravaged Ukrainian metropolis of Mariupol. Stanovaya additionally pointed to latest disputes with Rostec, the state arms producer Shoigu accused of working slowly, and the fallout from final yr’s Wagner mutiny.
“Putin makes it clear that the reference to the earlier place will live on, that continuity is necessary – completely in his thoughts,” Stanovaya continued. “However all that is extra harking back to the will to take Shoigu out of the sport in order to not offend, with most honor. Not as a result of he’s a good friend, however as a result of it’s safer for Putin himself. Identical to it occurred with Medvedev in January 2020. Apparently that is how the Safety Council justifies its personal title: making certain security in opposition to former heavyweights who’ve nowhere else to go and can’t be thrown out.”
Who’s Andrei Belousov?
Like Shoigu, Belousov is often known as a Putin loyalist and a robust supporter of presidency spending. He’s mentioned to have been behind the controversial improve in worth added tax (VAT) in 2019.
“One among Putin’s most extravagant appointments is Keynesian economist Belousov as protection minister,” mentioned Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace. “It’s now necessary for Putin to make sure that the large sums of cash spent on conflict are usually not stolen.”
“Belousov is not only an executor of duties, he has his personal imaginative and prescient in his head of how the Russian economic system ought to perform, and he brings it to life as finest he can,” a supply near the Kremlin instructed Impartial Russian information. exhaust The bell.
One other added that in 2014 he was the one economist near Putin on the time who supported the annexation of Crimea.
“I’ve recognized Andrei Belousov, the brand new Russian Protection Minister, for a few years,” economist Konstantin Sonin mentioned in a prolonged publish on X, including that they don’t seem to be in a relationship now. “The brand new adjustments – Belousov as an alternative of Shoigu in Protection (Ministry), Shoigu as an alternative of Patrushev within the Safety Council – are an ideal illustration of our ‘degenerate autocracy’ concept.
“Issues will not go in response to Putin’s plan, however he’ll endlessly rotate the identical small group of loyalists. Putin has at all times been cautious of bringing new individuals into positions of authority – even in the most effective of occasions, they should not have been anybody with out their very own perspective. Much more so towards the tip of his reign.”
‘The aim shouldn’t be peace’: What’s behind Putin’s wartime reshuffling of Russia? | Battle information between Russia and Ukraine
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