Global Courant 2023-05-11 11:18:35
The revolution in Myanmar that spawned resistance to the 2021 military coup is entering its third year. Violence continues to escalate as the army has attacked villages in opposition areas with artillery and aerial bombardments.
Supposedly boogeyman columns routinely invading and massacring the civilian population in what had been the army’s traditional recruiting area in central Myanmar in an attempt to force them into submission.
But the democratic coalition around the National Unity Government (NUG) of elected members of parliament (MPs) and their allies in the ethnic resistance organizations opposed to the coup is gaining ground.
many parts of the country are now beyond the reach of the juntaexcept for the ubiquitous air raids. The democratic forces are now capable of it hit well-defended military installations with missile fire. Their guerrilla-style attacks approach the army’s fortress capital of Naypyidaw.
New research has revealed by the US Institute for Peace that the military is in a weaker state than previously believed: it has an effective fighting force of 70,000 plus an unknown number of the 70,000 police officers that can be deployed for military use.
Casualties, desertions and defections undermine the army’s troop strength while that of the democratic forces increases: the NGGs The People’s Defense Forces already number some 65,000 troops and allied ethnic resistance organizations, the Karen National Union, the Kachin Independence Organization, the Karenni National Progress Party and the Chin National Front add tens of thousands more.
The major difference between the parties remains in the vastly superior equipment that the military has.
That’s what seasoned observers now claim the army loses. On its current trajectory, the question is no longer if the army and the junta it supports will collapse, but when.
This should be good news for those who want to end the war in Myanmar. Certainly, it will not be for friendless Russia, which risks losing yet another rogue partner. India, another current friend of the junta, will probably recover when it finally succeeds in deciphering the writing on the wall. So will Thailand.
China, which has its ear much closer to the ground, cooperates with the junta to push projects in its interests, but denies its full support and maintains ties to the resistance.
However, what is curious in light of the current situation is the actions of some Western and some Asian democracies ostensibly supporting a return to democratic rule in Myanmar.
There’s been a lot of buzz lately about the divisions in opposition to the military junta. The NGG, a democratic coalition of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and ethnic minority legislators and leaders of ethnic resistance organizations and the National Unity Consultative Council, is a slow-moving consensus machine.
Diplomats and development partners in Yangon and across the border in Thailand lament the bickering between the revolutionary forces and the slow progress towards a new political architecture for what will become a federally democratic Myanmar.
This revolution has been started from the bottom up by the people. The fact that the National Unity Consultative Council, the NGG and the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, the elected parliament, are so diverse in composition and vision is the great strength of this movement.
The basic steps for the future are outlined in the charter of federal democracy. The fact that no major agreement has been reached is not a failure. In fact, such an agreement would be premature as major players such as the United League of Arakan and the United Wa State Party cannot yet be accommodated.
The fact remains, the NGG now acts as an executive government. The NGG and its ethnic allies are extending control over the liberated areas they rule. The Pyidaungsu Hluttaw now meets regularly and is effectively the world’s first remote parliament. The alliance between the NLD MPs and ethnic resistance organizations continues. The Karen National Union unequivocally affirmed this alliance at his recent convention.
Even the ethnic resistance organizations that oppose the junta and have not yet joined the political coalition, such as the Arakan army that controls much of the southwestern state of Rakhine and the Ta-ang National Liberation Organization and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army , military cooperation with the coalition.
Everyone agrees on the basic premise: Myanmar will become a highly decentralized federal democracy and the military will no longer play a role in politics.
The alternative view of the junta, based on a continuation of its dominance in Myanmar’s politics, with mock elections excluding political parties that have 80% of the popular support, based on an undemocratic constitution written by the military and broken at will, has no appeal to anyone in the country. The junta has repeatedly had to postpone its mock elections because it has no control over the land. It offers no way forward.
Here we now have a failed junta that has committed genocide against the Rohingya, that slaughters people on a daily basis, that sustains itself through a parasitic resource-extraction racket based on environmental degradation and narcotics and human trafficking. while the economy is in ruins.
In the coup, the army violated its own constitution and derailed Myanmar’s first “democratic transition”. It is clearly not trusted by anyone. Now it also loses militarily.
Reconciliation a failed policy
To help the democratic coalition rid the country of this parasitic organization would be a good idea for an advanced democracy, wouldn’t it? Well, think again.
Seasoned partners like Switzerland And Japan continue to try to accommodate the junta by brokering ceasefires.
During meetings, employees of a particularly active peacemaker would fantasize about the possibilities of bringing the ethnic resistance organizations into a quasi-federal system based on Myanmar’s 2008 constitution. That is the constitution that the army imposed on the country during the first , failed “transition to democracy” and which it itself violated during the 2021 coup.
Such a compromise is of course imaginative, but it shows the arrogance of the so-called peacemakers who want to use their privileged relations with the junta to “end dying and suffering”. In the minds of these peacemakers, the people of Myanmar seem to lack any agency or even the right to choose which cause to fight and die for.
These peacemakers would force the people of Myanmar into another failed “transition” that would keep the military rentier state afloat in the name of peace. The success of this model is now exhibited in Sudan.
The junta accommodists no longer have a leg to stand on. Their “privileged channels” to the military did nothing to keep the first “transition” on track and they are now useless. There’s a reason countries regularly rotate their diplomatic staffs. It’s about time some partners brought in new people with a fresh perspective on things.
Even less cynical partners need to do more. The US is the only partner providing useful material assistance to the National Unity Government and the National Unity Advisory Council. I’ve said before that the democratic institutions need support, firstly in terms of funding and secondly in terms of advice.
The European Union talks a lot, but does little. I understand that it is procedurally difficult for bureaucrats to find ways to fund an unrecognized government. But more of those lofty declarations and remote federalism workshops that don’t involve transferring funds won’t cut it.
Make no mistake, peacemakers, facilitators and advisors do have a role. Democratic coalition partners could do with some long-term, informed facilitative support to engage in some difficult conversations among themselves about the way forward. But what the democratic institutions need most right now is cash.
Finally, we must realize that there is a danger in the current inaction. A long, slow decay of the junta is infinitely less desirable than its rapid collapse, even if violent. Low-boiling conflicts and the collapse of the state cause as much death and suffering as war.
Despite the greater reach and efforts of the NGG and ethnic partners, they cannot provide services to a large part of the population: a generation is losing education. Without support and sustained momentum, the current democratic coalition could languish and any hope for a united, peaceful Myanmar could fade. It doesn’t take much to prevent this tragedy.
Similar:
Loading…
