Global Courant 2023-05-07 01:09:12
Apart from the range of scenarios that arises around the question of whether Javier Milei can effectively enter a second presidential round, there is a reality: if the intention to vote shown in the polls materializes, the liberal can add between 10 – in the worst case – up to more than 20 deputies and his bloc would become decisive in Congress.
Lower House seats are allocated by the D’Hondt method of proportional representation. How many each political party gets depends on the percentage of votes obtained, how many competitors there are and how different they were from the rest. This is why the fine numbers are never clear until the final count.
But averaging polls, Milei has a 20% national vote intention. The number excites La Libertad Avanza and worries both the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio. Also to the third ways -the provincial and non-K Peronist parties- that, in the face of the parity of the two largest spaces, today retain the key to voting in Congress.
“Around 20 points in the Province there are between 6 or 7 national legislators. In the City it can be 3. But today we are already passing that percentage, and the ceiling has not reached,” they say in Milei’s party, where they are betting on continuing to grow.
Other provinces where the libertarian believes he can add legislators are Córdoba Mendoza, Entre Ríos, San Juan, San Luis, Santa Cruz, Tucumán, Misiones, Santa Fe, and La Rioja. “Possibly we will get around 25 to 30 national deputies,” they trust.
It is true that in many provinces the polls place Milei as the candidate with the most votes individually, although he is later in third place when the percentages of the other applicants by electoral front are added.
But in Mendoza they position it remarkably high, although it is a demanding location to win seats: the distribution is accessed with around 16% of the votes. With the calculation of some surveys, it could also reach 2 or even 3 of the 5 deputies who renew in that province.
“It is a very anti-Kirchner society and although the radical government is well accepted, Together for Change does not arouse the same popular fervor as Milei” they analyze.
The truth is that Milei is currently part of a block of two: he and Victoria Villaruel. Although in practice there are three, because Carolina Píparo – who had left Together for Change to run with José Luis Espert – now approached Milei. All of them have a mandate until 2025, with which they do not put any bank at stake.
Any percentage will increase your ranks. Even if his voting intention falls apart in half, he would triple the size of his current block.
Its expansion can completely change the dynamics of the Chamber. With the numerical parity between the main benches – the Frente de Todos only has 2 more deputies than Together for Change – today the Federal Interbloc holds the key. With socialists from Santa Fe, non-K Peronists and Juan Schiaretti from Cordoba add up to 8 and are key to tilting the votes. They stopped, for example, the idea of expropriation of Vicentin and the Judicial Reform; and they were fundamental to get half a sanction for the only paper ballot.
The question will be in observing which front Milei gets deputies from. The Front of All is the one that risks the most in Deputies. They renew 68 of their 118 seats for Deputies, while Together for Change commits 55 of the 116 they have. Between provincial forces and non-K Peronists, another 7 deputies are also renewed.
It will also be decisive which candidate reaches La Rosada. If the Front of All is maintained, Milei’s block could paralyze many projects. If it is Together for Change, they estimate that there may be more points of union, although it would also depend on who. Milei has already demonstrated, for example, her support for Patricia Bullrich, while she rants against Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, whom she once called a “dragging worm” and “shit lefty.”
“If we do not reach the Presidency, we will be able to stop all initiatives that do not coincide with liberal principles,” they warn.
It is not even known who the candidates will be, but it is not expected that they will be well-known names, but that the drag factor is what leads them to the national venue.
Is it a risk that they arrive and then play alone? “The same thing was already said in the Legislature, that they could leave. Especially because of how Larreta’s ruling party operates, but it did not happen,” they respond.
