Global Courant 2023-05-10 13:13:43
Canada was left out of the trilateral defense and security pact known as AUKUS — and a new report from a respected US think tank says Ottawa must overcome its apparent indifference to the deal or risk being left behind by its allies.
The analysis report, published online Tuesday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was co-authored by Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The report made no sense.
“The glacial pace at which Canada appears to be adapting to the realities of modern superpower competition has left it far behind, affecting both Ottawa’s reputation with its allies and its ability to protect Canadian territory and sovereignty and contribute to global peace and stability,” said the report, which examined the reasons why Canada was left out of AUKUS.
“The simple answer is that apparently Ottawa was not invited.”
Several defense and diplomatic sources have said Canada was not invited to participate until the pact was formally announced by the United States, Britain and Australia in September 2021.
CBC News does not name the confidential information sources because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
Rigby said he saw no indication Canada was about to be invited to join the arrangement that became AUKUS just a few months before it was announced.
“When I was national security and intelligence adviser, there was no indication that a deal was in the works,” said Rigby, whose tenure as Trudeau’s national security and intelligence adviser ended in June 2021. (He fully retired from the public service in September 2021. .)
Rigby said that while working with Trudeau, he had “regular discussions” with Canada’s allies in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partnership — Canada, the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand — and the idea of AUKUS- membership never came up.
“I had regular conversations with my colleagues in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. We talked about the threat environment,” he said. “We talked about how, as a Five Eyes partnership, we need to do more to respond to external threats, including from China, including in the Indo-Pacific region.
Canada not seen as a ‘major player’
“But in terms of actually coming together and focusing on submarine capabilities or broader defense, technology collaboration, that hasn’t emerged during my watch.”
He said that if Canada had not been invited to participate in AUKUS in the weeks following his departure from government, it “speaks volumes about the way Canada is viewed by its allies at the moment … that we are not necessarily seen as a major player on the international scene and especially in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told CBC News that it is his understanding that Canada was not invited due to its long-standing aversion to acquiring nuclear submarines.
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull: ‘I can understand why Canadians are really surprised why they weren’t informed.’ (Rick Rycroft/Associated Press)
“The initiative for AUKUS came about because the then Australian government, led by Mr (Scott) Morrison, wanted to break the contract with France and go ahead with marine nuclear propulsion,” Turnbull said, referring to the earlier plan of his country to buy conventional submarines from France. That plan was canceled in favor of the AUKUS scheme.
“They started with talks with the British and … then they made their way to Washington,” Turnbull added.
The AUKUS Pact has two main components or “pillars”: Australia’s acquisition of US and UK nuclear submarine technology and transfer of military technology and intelligence.
Turnbull said that since Canada does not operate or produce nuclear submarines, or seeks to build a nuclear fleet, it was not part of the dialogue.
“I can understand why Canadians are really surprised why they weren’t informed,” he said, noting that Canada has a lot of experience with nuclear power technology. “Canada has significant and extensive nuclear experience in operating civilian nuclear power plants. Australia does not.”
‘It made us ignorant’
Turnbull’s assessment is consistent with former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson’s perception of the events.
“It didn’t catch us by surprise, but the (political) balm was, well, we have a preferential relationship with the United States, we don’t really need it,” said Robertson, now vice president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. an Ottawa-based think tank that occasionally hosted events sponsored by defense contractors.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies report said Canada would have been turned off by the cost of acquiring and maintaining a nuclear subfleet through AUKUS.
In this photo, provided by the U.S. Navy, the Virginia-class fast attack submarine USS Missouri (SSN 780) departs Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam for deployment Sept. 1, 2021. (Amanda R. Gray/U.S. Navy via AP)
“Canada’s apparent indifference to AUKUS appears to stem from a combination of sticker shock and an inadequate understanding of the benefits that may accrue from the agreement,” said the report, which noted that the submarine portion of the deal Australia could cost between $268. billion and $368 billion Australian ($179 billion and $245 billion US) over 30 years.
At an event Monday at National Defense headquarters in Ottawa, Defense Minister Anita Anand was asked if Canada had been notified of or invited to join AUKUS. She avoided answering the question.
WATCH: Defense Minister Anita Anand on Canada and AUKUS
Defense Minister is asked if Canada has applied to join AUKUS
In response to questions about whether Canada has formally requested to be part of AUKUS, National Defense Minister Anita Anand says Canada is “deeply interested in continuing to work with our allies, including Australia, the United States and the UK’.
“As I said, we are very interested in continuing to work with our allies, including Australia, the United States and the UK, on our capabilities in advanced technologies, innovation in AI and quantum technologies,” said Anand.
Canada has expressed an interest in advancing cooperation with allies on artificial intelligence and other advanced technology unrelated to the nuclear program.
Robertson said he doubts Canada’s allies would be eager to sit around the table on the technology transfer and intelligence sharing in the deal.
“I don’t think the Australians want to see us,” he said, adding that the Americans could allow Canada “if we push them hard enough.” He said US support likely depends on Canada showing more initiative to meet NORAD’s modernization goals in the Arctic.
Turnbull argued, however, that it is in the interest of all allies to allow Canada, and perhaps New Zealand, to participate in the non-nuclear aspects of the agreement.
“Is Canada better off not participating in the partnership with the UK, Australia and the United States to build nuclear-powered submarines? That’s a question only Canadians can answer,” Turnbull said.
The former prime minister pointed out that the defense relationship between the members of the Five Eyes alliance “is already so close. Many people have wondered how it is possible for it to become even closer.
“But if it can get closer, if the collaboration, technology collaboration can become seamless, that can only be a good thing.”
‘Canada has a lot to offer AUKUS’
The Center for Strategic and International Studies report agreed. It said some of Canada’s policy frameworks and initiatives — particularly those related to critical mineral ownership and development — make it an important potential partner.
“Canada has a lot to offer AUKUS, and vice versa,” the report said.
“But striking the right balance remains a challenge for both sides. If Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States open the door too quickly to too many partners, there is a risk that the agreement will become too broad and unwieldy.”
For Canada, the report said, the downside of joining AUKUS would be “longer-term demands for dramatic increases in defense spending that may not be easy for Ottawa and the general public to accept.”
The consequences of not participating may be even less palatable, the report said.
“Beyond reputational damage, Canada’s weak security policies in the face of growing challenges from revanchist and revisionist powers will jeopardize Canadian national interests, as evidenced by aggressive Russian moves in the Arctic and increasingly hostile Chinese activities in Canada, including electoral interference.”
