World Courant
Because the U.S. presidential election approaches, the race to draw voters has intensified. Of the varied constituencies that Democrats and Republicans are preventing over, one stands out: the Muslim neighborhood.
Though Muslims make up about 1 p.c of the U.S. inhabitants, they’re an vital voter group as a result of they principally stay in swing states, the place they usually win narrowly in elections.
On this election cycle, the Muslim neighborhood seems extra united than ever on one political concern: the conflict in Gaza. Any candidate hoping to win over massive swaths of Muslim voters must handle the neighborhood’s calls for to finish the bloodshed in Palestine.
That is in line with a brand new examine revealed by the Institute for Social Coverage and Understanding (ISPU) in partnership with Emgage and Change Analysis. It’s based mostly on a survey performed in late June and early July that centered on how Muslims in three swing states – Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan – plan to vote within the 2024 presidential election.
What we discovered is that President Joe Biden’s dealing with of the conflict in Gaza has turned Muslims, who have been amongst his strongest supporters in 2020, into his fiercest opponents.
In 2020, about 65 p.c of Muslim voters in these states turned out to solid their ballots for Biden. This help was important to his election victory, as he gained key swing states by slim margins. He gained Georgia by simply 12,000 votes, a state the place greater than 61,000 Muslims voted, and Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes, the place 125,000 Muslims voted.
In contrast, in our survey, which was performed earlier than Biden withdrew from the presidential race, simply 12 p.c of respondents mentioned they might vote for him, marking a dramatic drop in help not seen amongst some other group surveyed. Whereas that is having an influence on the presidential race, it has additionally performed out in a broader disillusionment with the Democratic Get together’s institution.
The conflict in Gaza has united Muslim voters in a manner that no different concern in latest historical past has. Based on the 2020 American Muslim Ballot performed by ISPU, an important voting points for Muslim voters have been well being care (19 p.c), the economic system (14 p.c), and social justice (13 p.c).
Examine that to 2024: Throughout the political spectrum, the highest precedence for Muslim voters in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan is the conflict in Gaza (61 p.c), adopted by retaining the U.S. out of international wars (22 p.c).
Chopping navy help to Israel additionally obtained help from the overwhelming majority of Muslim voters in our survey, who, no matter partisan sentiment, overwhelmingly view this coverage as a motive to vote for a candidate. Whereas an abroad conflict could appear far faraway from the every day considerations of American Muslim voters, many see the U.S. position—offering unconditional help and diplomatic cowl for Israel—as complicity within the continued oppression of Palestinians.
The importance of the conflict in Gaza to Muslim voters turned clear months earlier than we performed our survey. The Muslim neighborhood performed a number one position within the Uncommitted Nationwide Motion, which urged Democratic voters to vote “uncommitted” of their states’ presidential elections. The initiative rallied greater than 700,000 Democrats to take action, signaling their demand for a change within the Biden administration’s tone and insurance policies towards Israel and Palestine.
This dramatic Muslim migration away from Biden, nonetheless, doesn’t characterize a wholesale leap throughout the aisle. Muslim help for Trump rose from 18 p.c in 2020 to 22 p.c in 2024 in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Overwhelmingly, former Muslim Biden supporters are both switching to 3rd events or are nonetheless undecided. Our survey discovered that almost a 3rd of Muslim voters will both vote for a third-party candidate (27 p.c) or write in a candidate (3 p.c). About 17 p.c of Muslims mentioned they’re undecided on a candidate, in contrast with 6 p.c of most people.
This implies there’s nonetheless room and time for candidates to win over this vital constituency. And it appears to be like like they’re making an attempt.
Not solely has Biden dropped out of the race, however Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has additionally signaled her departure from his unwavering help for Israel’s conflict in Gaza. In July, the vp missed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handle to Congress, mentioned she wouldn’t stay silent in regards to the struggling in Gaza and made clear she supported a ceasefire.
In August, she selected as her operating mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who’s broadly seen as extra sympathetic to the Palestinian trigger than Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. This 12 months, Walz praised Minnesota’s disengaged voters, calling them “civicly engaged” and saying, “This can be a humanitarian disaster. They’ve each proper to be heard.”
And whereas Muslims have been cautiously optimistic at greatest, the Harris marketing campaign’s refusal to permit a Palestinian American to talk on the Democratic Nationwide Conference final week dashed these hopes.
Third occasion candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West have each voiced help for the individuals of Gaza. West selected Melina Abdullah, a black Muslim girl, as his operating mate. Stein selected Muslim activist and tutorial Rudolph “Butch” Ware.
Even Republican candidate Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is concentrating on Arab-American voters — a shock given the anti-Muslim rhetoric he used throughout his 2016 marketing campaign. Individuals concerned in his marketing campaign are attempting to attraction to Arab voters in swing states. Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, married the son of a Lebanese-American businessman, Massad Boulous, who’s making an attempt to persuade Arabs in Michigan to vote for the previous president due to the present administration’s failed insurance policies in Gaza.
The mobilization of the Muslim neighborhood in Palestine has come at a excessive value for a lot of. The Council on American Islamic Relations reported an unprecedented spike in incidents of bias, with a 56 p.c improve in stories of Islamophobia in 2023. Anti-Palestinian racism has additionally skyrocketed, a troubling development epitomized by the taking pictures of three Palestinian college students in Vermont sporting the keffiyeh scarf. Hundreds—lots of them Muslim college students—have been arrested in campus protests, and lots of have been threatened with deportation or confronted felony expenses for his or her pro-Palestinian activism at schools and universities throughout the U.S.
And but, Muslim voters this time round appear undeterred, even by the results of taking a public stand on Palestine. Solidarity with the individuals of Gaza has develop into the one most vital concern for American Muslim voters, a gaggle no candidate can afford to disregard.
The views expressed on this article are these of the authors themselves and don’t essentially replicate the editorial place of Al Jazeera.
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