Global Courant
If you’re American and, like most Americans, don’t pay much attention to South Korean politics, you may be surprised by the announcement Joe Biden and South Korean Yoon Suk Yeol made when Yoon visited Washington in April.
The two presidents have a “Washington DeclarationThat gives South Korea control over any US use of nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula and obliges South Koreans not to develop their own nuclear weapons.
It’s fair to say that most Americans were unaware that the South Koreans were thinking about getting the bomb. But they were – and while Yoon signed on, it’s by no means certain that the statement extinguished those thoughts.
Republic of Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol holds an acoustic guitar signed by Don McClean with US President Joe Biden at the White House on April 26, 2023. Yoon, a karaoke fan, sang McClean’s “American Pie.” During that visit, the two signed the Washington Declaration. Photo: Yonhap
South Korea is a solid US ally, a free-market democracy that both hosts 28,000 US troops on its territory and has sent its own troops to fight alongside the US in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. It paid 90% of the $10.8 billion to build the base south of Seoul used by US troops.
South Korea is an important country for American farmers and ranchers. It is the No. 6 overseas market for U.S. agricultural products, worth $9.34 billion by 2022. While many countries only import raw materials from the U.S., the South Koreans’ largest purchase, worth $2.7 billion, a value-added product, beef.
This is reported by Pew Research At the center, 89% of South Koreans have a favorable view of the United States, the most in Asia and second globally only to Poland. Think about that: the South Korean public takes a favorable view of the US, but would rather not rely on the US nuclear umbrella.
Despite the strong ties, the South Korean president spoke earlier this year about developing nuclear weapons. Polls showed 71% of South Koreans are in favour.
It’s not hard to guess why. The unimpressive US withdrawal from Afghanistan cannot have inspired confidence in South Korea. There are also concerns that a re-elected Donald Trump would resume his effort to withdraw US troops from South Korea.
And since North Korea has missiles that can reach the US mainland, South Koreans naturally wonder: Would the US endanger San Francisco to save Seoul?
The reliability of the US was also in question when South Korea last considered developing nuclear weapons. That was in the 1970s, when the US withdrew from South Vietnam and Cambodia.
President Gerald R Ford and South Korean “President for Life” Park Chung-hee at Ford’s arrival ceremony in Seoul on November 22, 1974. Before the stone Ford’s visit, U.S. intelligence had learned of the South’s secret nuclear program -Korea. Photo courtesy of Gerald R Ford Library
Seoul backed down when Washington said South Korea could have either a US alliance or nuclear weapons, but not both. Seoul chose the alliance.
South Korea was then a poor developing country ruled by a dictator. Today it is a developed country that chooses its rulers. For some South Koreans, having nuclear weapons is as much about national prestige as it is about security. Their starving, backward cousins to the north have nukes. Why wouldn’t they?
Perhaps as important as concerns about the reliability of the US is the increasing severity of the threat. North Korea is clearly not talking out of its nuclear weapons. The US has almost stopped trying.
What about MAD?
Would it really be so bad if South Korea developed its own nuclear weapons? It would clearly be a blow to nuclear nonproliferation, a policy that has been supported by every president for the past seven decades, including Trump.
While that policy has not stopped proliferation, it has limited it. In the early 1960s, President John F. Kennedy predicted that by 1975, 10 to 20 countries would have nuclear weapons. The world only got to nine when North Korea got the bomb.
A devil’s advocate might say, “Let mutually assured destruction work its magic.” India and Pakistan defied the consensus on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and neither has used nuclear weapons against each other. Couldn’t a South Korean bomb reduce the risk of nuclear catastrophe by deterring North Korea?
North Korea has nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, and 71% of South Koreans want their country to have them too. Map: Wikimedia Commons
Non-proliferation advocates have a ready answer. The greater the number of countries that have nuclear weapons, the greater the chance of a nuclear catastrophe due to an accident or miscalculation or the greater risk of terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons.
President Biden has emphasized that the US umbrella creates deterrence, vow that any North Korean nuclear attack on the US or its allies would “mark the end” of the Pyongyang regime.
By giving South Korea more say over the use of US weapons, the Biden administration hopes to prevent yet another country from going nuclear. Graham Allison, a well-known Harvard expert, to call to action the Washington Declaration a “major problem”.
Whether it’s a big enough deal to stave off further nuclear proliferation remains to be seen.
This article, originally published on June 2nd by the latter news organization and now republished with permission by Global Courant, is © Copyright 2023 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow Urban Lehner on Twitter: @urbanize
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