Global Courant 2023-05-24 11:06:50
The Ministry of Finance recently presented a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, covering 2023 to 2027, almost the entire term of the next government, no matter who remains. Within the guidelines established in the document, there is a realistic estimate of tax revenue so that the State can cover operating expenses, investment and public debt payments. Said recommendation constitutes a kind of sarcasm, since the mandate of Alejandro Giammattei has continued the route of loans, undertaken by successive governments for three decades, but accelerated thoroughly in the last one, with a series of excuses and technical verbiage that in They contribute nothing to the reduction of the burden, which falls on generations that have not even been born and without any hint of a solution to problems related to development.
To make matters worse, the vast majority of presidential candidates have little idea of the current state of national finances. They dedicate themselves to offering everything without knowing how much real budget they have or to propose hypothetical efficiencies, despite the fact that the current management inherits additional commitments such as increases to the teachers’ union, health workers, the passive classes and also payments to alleged ex-military personnel.
The vegetative expansion of the State persists as a consequence of clientelism, unnecessary jobs, programs that are dysfunctional hindrances and anodyne entities, all of which constitute the main cause of the continuous indebtedness, which up to now yields an unpayable balance of more than Q13 thousand per inhabitant, including children and newborns, a calculation that arises by dividing the amount of public debt by 18 million Guatemalans.
Part of the economist jitanjáforas of the parties in contention expose recycled terms such as “boosting investment”, “optimizing execution”, “improving taxation mechanisms”, “investment generation” or “reducing tax evasion” , which may denote advantages in themselves, but to be applied they require a State reform by updating the contracting law, a new civil service regulation or a program to eliminate waste such as free lunches, uncontrolled petty cash or sterile payments for allowances to deputies. In addition, a serious technical and non-political discussion of the budgets in the Legislative Branch is required, a situation that worsens in each election year.
Loan approvals should not be passed at the whim of the ruling party, but only after a convincing demonstration that they will be used for the construction of productive infrastructure or the implementation of viable projects for education, health and the fight against malnutrition. 2022 closed with a public debt of Q218 thousand 335 million, which corresponds to 31.4 percent of the gross domestic product estimated by the Banco de Guatemala for that year.
The technocrats on duty often argue that risk levels have not yet been reached to guarantee new loans, but the amount does not stop growing and positive results are not seen either. In 2023 the budget contemplates Q76 billion for operation, Q19 thousand 716 million for investment and another Q16 billion for public debt. The figures speak for themselves and the current Executive can recommend little to whoever succeeds him, who, surely, will have a lot to claim.
