Global Courant 2023-05-23 04:23:00
Canadians are divided in their opinion of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, according to a new national poll, with two in five Canadians saying they approve of the prime minister, while just over half responded that they disapprove.
A study conducted by Angus Reid attempted to create a picture of the long-term trends of approval rates to see how Trudeau compares to his predecessors in their eighth year in office – and the results are mostly favorable, despite a large percentage of disapproving members.
With 40 percent approval, Trudeau has a higher approval rating than three former prime ministers at similar stages in their careers, with only Jean Chretien surpassing him.
The current approval rate comes from a survey of about 1,600 Canadian adults in early May.
Trudeau’s approval rating after eight years is four points higher than former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s approval rating, as well as eight points higher than that of his father Pierre Elliot Trudeau.
Brian Mulroney had an approval rating of just 12 percent of those polled eight years into his premiership. Mulroney resigned as Prime Minister the following year, before his party was decimated in the 1993 federal election.
However, with 55 percent of those surveyed stating they disapprove of Justin Trudeau, and a full 40 percent selecting “strongly disapprove,” it’s clear Canadians are far from united in their opinion of Trudeau.
According to this data, nearly all prime ministers since the 1970s had a higher percentage of Canadians who said they disapproved than those who said they approved.
The exception is Chretien, who had a 54 percent approval rating in December 2001, with 42 percent of Canadians saying they disapproved of him.
OPINIONS ON TRUDEAU OVER TIME
Angus Reid noted that several events this spring may have affected Trudeau’s approval rating, such as the “launch of a foreign election interference investigation, investigation into a $160,000 vacation to Jamaica, a redistributed budget, and the leak of an admission that Canada will probably never meet its NATO commitments.”
Yet opinions on the current prime minister have remained within a few points of 40 percent since last spring, with the lowest drop in the past year at 37 percent in March.
In February 2020 — a month in which massive national protests were sparked by hereditary leaders of the Wet’suwet’en Nation challenging pipeline construction on their lands and the novel coronavirus in Canada — Trudeau’s approval rating was 33 percent, according to the study, with a rejection rate of 64 percent.
However, by May 2020, he had risen to a 55 percent approval rating, the highest he’s received between February 2020 and May 2023, according to Angus Reid data.
EXCLUDE THE DATA
Broken down by political party, nearly 90 percent of former Conservative Party voters said they disapproved of Trudeau, while 81 percent said they disapproved “strongly.”
The majority of Liberal Party voters — 80 percent — approve of Trudeau, while 25 percent say they “strongly approve.” New Democratic voters have the next highest number of those who approve of Trudeau, at 53 percent, though half of the 43 percent who disapprove do so strongly. One in four Bloc Quebecois voters approve of Trudeau, while 68 percent disapprove.
Trudeau’s approval rating among women is one of the more consistent aspects of his approval over the years, according to Angus Reid. Women over the age of 55 consistently have the highest rate of Trudeau approval compared to other age groups, with an approval rate for Trudeau of 48 percent when only women over 55 are counted.
Since September 2022, Trudeau has seen a dip in approval among women aged 35-54, with an approval rate of 37 percent from this group as of May 2023, compared to 45 percent in September.
Trudeau’s approval rates have long been lower among men in general, with the approval rate of men aged 18-34 in particular showing many ups and downs since early 2021. Currently, this age group gives Trudeau a 38 percent approval rating, with 36 percent of men 55+ approving of Trudeau, and 34 percent of men 35-54.
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey May 8-10, 2023 of a representative randomized sample of 1,603 Canadian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Differences in or between totals are due to rounding. The research was conducted in-house and paid for by ARI.
