Global Courant
Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea had far-reaching consequences for world politics – demonstrating that it is still possible for countries to get away with re-drawing borders through aggression.
Although the international community condemned the annexation and imposed it economically sanctions As for Russia, the sanctions have not returned Crimea to Ukraine, nor have they stopped Russia from invading again in 2022.
The People’s Republic of China has long viewed the resolution of “the Taiwan question” as crucial. China’s leader Xi Jinping has stated that Taiwan’s absorption, even if it requires poweris the key to being plan to “rejuvenate the Chinese nation”.
China’s leaders closely watch the situation in it Ukraine, who see it as a test of American resolve and the unity of Western alliances. China also sees the potential for a protracted conflict in Europe as one distraction for the West. As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, it consumes US resources and attention.
If Russia ultimately retains control of newly annexed Ukrainian territory, that could encourage China in its ambitions to forcibly annex Taiwan. The threat of sanctions may not be enough to deter Beijing: policymakers in China can also expect that other countries’ economic dependence on China could mitigate the severity of these impacts, and some Chinese officials believe they can dodge US-led sanctions.
It is therefore crucial that Ukraine’s supporters send a decisive message to the West, and do it now.
Before the 2022 invasion, there was little confidence in it Crimea could be returned to Ukraine, and that possibility remains an open question in the ongoing conflict.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meet in 2018. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
US Secretary of State Anthony Blink previously stated that a Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a red line for Putin, but there has been a shift in his attitudeas he claims there will be no “just” or “lasting” peace unless Ukraine’s territorial integrity is restored.
A Biden administration official even told members of Congress in December 2022 that Ukraine had the military capacity to take back Crimea. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges of the US military said there was growing belief that the Ukrainian military would successfully regain control of Crimea by August 2023.
The United Kingdom has recently given Ukraine several “Stormy shadow“cruise missiles, which greatly enhance the country’s long-range attack capabilities.
In addition, French President Emmanuel Macron concerned to provide Kiev with the SCALP-EG missile, similar to the Storm Shadow, with a range of up to 249.4 kilometers.
This advanced weaponry has the potential to attack strategic locations, including the Bridge over the Kerch Strait – a vital land link between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, serving as a vital supply route for Russian troops amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Despite the fears of certain Western leaders regarding Putin’s designation of Crimea as aRed line”, the region remains under relentless attack by Ukrainian forces.
The recent introduction of extended-range advanced munitions from the United States is poised to further escalate the barrage on military targets. While Russia hastily builds a defense trenches in Crimea, it became clear that Moscow was deeply concerned about the region’s sensitivity to a possible Ukrainian invasion.
Last September, Putin declared Kherson part of Russia, despite the lack of full control. Putin has made this known Russia would use “all forces and means at their disposal” to “protect” this newly acquired territory.
However, Ukraine showed little concern and within 40 days Russia left the capital of Kherson. The justification for Putin’s annexation was based on a staged poll, claiming it represented the will of the people, much like the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
In a recent statement, the former French president Francois Hollande emphasized the idea that a victorious Ukraine, symbolized by the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbas and possibly even Crimea, would effectively discourage Russia and China from pursuing imperialist ambitions against their neighbours. Putin’s defeat would mean not only giving up such temptations, but also sending a firm message that aggressive actions will not yield favorable results.
However, if Ukraine fails to reclaim its original 2014 borders and if it can only restore its pre-February 2022 borders, China could interpret that as evidence of the West’s insufficient commitment to restoring international order.
People gathered outside the Russian representative office in downtown Taipei during the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year. Photo: CNA/Screengrab
The recently appointed special envoy China’s response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has emphasized an immediate ceasefire. This proposal means that Russia will take control of the currently occupied regions of Ukraine. Such a result would further encourage Russia.
Consequently, a Russian triumph would send a discouraging message to the world and set an alarming precedent for the Chinese, encouraging them in their own ambitions.
The timely delivery of essential weapons to Ukraine, enabling the restoration of its internationally recognized borders, is of great importance to both the United States and Europe. Failure to accelerate this support inadvertently benefits China, diverting attention and resources away from Taiwan
In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the United States would be forced to prioritize the defense of Taiwan due to its increased strategic value. Therefore, it becomes crucial for the United States to motivate its European allies to take a more prominent role in protecting against Russian aggression.
Encouragingly, recent developments point to a positive trend, illustrated by Germany’s recent announcement of its largest support package to Ukraine – almost 3 billion dollars.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has mention“This Russian war against Ukraine and against all free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea – with its liberation.”
But the significance of the end of the war in Crimea extends beyond today’s Europe. It will serve as a cautionary reminder in the face of future acts of aggression that the democratic world will unite in the long run, however long it takes to defeat authoritarian aggression.
A quicker end to the war with a full restoration of international order serves as the best deterrent to China’s Taiwanese ambitions.
David Kirichenko (davishjr@gmail.com) is a freelance journalist and editor at Euromaidan Press. He tweets @DVKirichenko. This article was originally published by Pacific Forum and is republished with permission.
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