Global Courant
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will make his long-delayed visit to China on Sunday in hopes of slowing the downward spiral of relations between Beijing and Washington. But China’s increasingly assertive, sometimes downright hostile attitude suggests the visit will be as much about confrontation as it is relaxation.
According to China, the United States is a declining, hegemonic power trying to maintain its dominance in China’s backyard and provoking Beijing over its claim to Taiwan, the self-governed island democracy. The country’s leader Xi Jinping accuses the United States of leading other countries in a concerted campaign to contain China militarily, diplomatically and technologically. Even as Beijing has agreed to talk, it has also signaled that it is bracing itself for conflict and sees little chance — and possibly little use — of a real thaw.
“China has thrown away its illusions,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University. “It is becoming less and less confident in the idea that China-US relations could improve thanks to Chinese efforts.”
Mr Xi recently warned officials to be prepared for “extreme scenarios”, suggesting external threats are multiplying. Chinese military ships have maneuvered close to US warships and aircraft, in what US officials have called unnecessary provocations. And in a phone call this week, China’s foreign minister told Mr Blinken that it was “clear who bears responsibility” for deteriorating bilateral relations.
More broadly, throughout his decade in power, Mr Xi has been fixated on national security, emphasizing the need for self-reliance and suggesting that existential threats to Chinese Communist Party rule are pervasive. Rising nationalist sentiment in China – often fueled by the authorities – applauds Beijing’s aggressive foreign policy.
Washington faces its own domestic pressure not to come across as soft; a tougher approach to China has become a rare area of bipartisan consensus. President Biden, while expressing his desire for dialogue, has described China as America’s biggest geopolitical challenge. The United States has issued a barrage of sanctions against Chinese officials and companies and has sought to cut off Chinese access to critical technology worldwide. Some in Congress have accused the government of continuing to be overly lenient with China, such as when it downplayed recent reports that China was building a spy station in Cuba.
With both sides taking seemingly hardline positions, few officials and pundits hold out hope for a major breakthrough after Mr Blinken’s visit, the first visit by a US Secretary of State since 2018. It was unclear whether he would meet Mr Xi .
At the heart of Beijing’s cold attitude to Mr Blinken’s visit is the claim that US overtures are disingenuous and China’s treatment unfair. When Mr Blinken postponed his previously planned visit in February because of a Chinese spy balloon, Beijing called it an overreaction. China has also dismissed US allegations that it was considering arming Russia in its war in Ukraine, citing US efforts to rally allies to limit technology exports to China as evidence of a containment campaign.
In a editorial last week, The Global Times, a one-party tabloid, said the United States was “just acting” when asking for engagement.
“Not only can we not enable their performance, we must also remain vigilant about the real intentions behind it,” it said.
China’s declaration that it was up to the United States to mend relations showed that it was becoming increasingly uncompromising, said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Mr Xi, in his heightened perception of risk, would probably only be satisfied with major concessions that the United States would not be willing to make – for example, a reduced US military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
“It is clear that Blinken’s visit is not a negotiating session,” said Mr Thompson, who previously worked on China issues at the US Defense Department. “It will be an exchange of views so that the two sides can better understand their respective positions and have a better appreciation of each country’s bottom line.”
But even that exchange can have limits. While the Biden administration has insisted that high-level contact with Beijing is important to prevent competition from escalating into military conflict, China has shown what some see as an increasing appetite for confrontation.
This month, a Chinese warship slammed within 500 feet of a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait, according to the Pentagon, while a Chinese jet flew right in front of a US spy plane over the South China Sea in May. Washington called those actions unsafe, while Beijing responded that they were responses to US provocations.
Chinese troops have also urged US allies in the region. Its fighter jets, in joint exercises with Russia, flew near South Korea’s airspace this month, prompting South Korea to use its own aircraft in response.
Mr Thompson said Beijing probably wanted other countries not sure how it would react in certain situations so they would approach it more cautiously.
“That’s partly why China limits involvement, because they believe uncertainty in their opponents’ mindsets gives them an advantage,” he said.
The fact that China nevertheless agreed to Mr Blinken’s visit demonstrates Beijing’s recognition that the countries’ economies remain closely intertwined, a relationship too crucial to ignore as China attempts to revive its economy . China wants Washington to roll back its tech control. And Chinese officials have given lavish receptions to prominent American entrepreneurs who recently visited China, including Elon Musk, whose state media reported quoted as an expression of “confidence in the Chinese market”. Mr Xi agreed with Bill Gates in Beijing on Friday, calling him the “first American friend I met in Beijing this year.”
Both administrations hope that after Mr. Blinken, other senior US officials will visit China, including Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury Secretary; Gina M. Raimondo, the commerce secretary; and John Kerry, a special envoy for climate.
Perhaps most importantly, Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden could also potentially meet in San Francisco in November, at a leadership summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group of countries.
Professor Zhu, in Nanjing, said China was not opposed to talks; it just wanted to make sure the United States listened to its concerns, for example about access to semiconductor chips. “The most important thing for the Chinese side is that the topics of discussion cannot all be determined by the United States.”
Mr. Blinken expects Chinese officials to make strong statements on Taiwan, bracing for criticism of the Biden administration’s recent ban on the export of some advanced semiconductor chips and manufacturing equipment to China, Daniel J. Kritenbrink, the top Eastern executive Asian State Department official told reporters on Wednesday.
Despite low expectations for major deals, some analysts said restarting substantial diplomacy was a worthy goal in itself at a time when US-China relations are at their worst levels in decades.
At least during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had common expectations and standards of behavior that drove competition, said Evan Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and senior Asia director of the National Security Council in the Obama administration. . Those things don’t exist between the United States and China now, he said.
“For Blinken, he walks into China under conditions of strategic terra incognita,” said Professor Medeiros. “This is all new territory.”
Edward Wong contributed reporting.
