Global Courant 2023-05-04 00:52:10
According to the Russian media, namely Tass, RT and Sputnik News, two drones attacked the living quarters of President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. He was not at home on the evening of May 3, so the attack, if launched, failed to achieve its goal of killing Putin.
As things stand, the Kremlin has produced a number of videos — one of which shows what appears to be a drone exploding perhaps 50 feet above the ground. That video, oddly enough, also shows two individuals — some have said they are soldiers — climbing one of the buildings, which has a dome-like structure identified as the Senate Palace dome. They climb up as the drone comes down.
If the video is authentic, we don’t know what they were doing there in the middle of the night.
Do they carry a MANPADS, a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, to the top to intercept incoming drones? There’s no video evidence that they’re carrying anything.
Could it be spotters, who were ordered to look closely at the skies around the Kremlin? This is possible if there was early warning of the attack. In any case, they were late to the party. And since the video ends after the explosion, we don’t know what happened to these guys.
Ukraine denies involvement in drone attack. The government in Kiev has responded to the Kremlin’s accusation that Ukraine carried out an attempt on Vladimir Putin’s life early Wednesday morning with two drones. An attack on the Kremlin would “change nothing… pic.twitter.com/gLj4CnV2k0
— Dénes Torteli (@DenesTorteli) May 3, 2023
Moscow now has one of the most extensive aircraft and missile air defense systems in the world, perhaps rivaling Israel’s layered air defenses. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Russians copied what the Israelis do, but with significantly different equipment. An integrated air defense network should have been able to intercept any drone strike long before it approached the Kremlin enclave.
There is a story circulating in the blogosphere that the attack on the Kremlin was an inside job, with a team of Ukrainian mercenaries launching the drones very close to the Kremlin walls. In this case, the extensive air defenses around the city of Moscow would have been effectively bypassed and early detection of a drone strike would not have been possible.
The Russians say the drones have (finally) been electronically stopped. This suggests that not only did the electronics of the drones jam, but the Russians, at least in the case of the one that exploded, were able to detonate the drone’s payload. Is this possible? The answer is affirmative, as the Russians have not only jammers, but very powerful jammers, perhaps strong enough to trigger a drone’s explosive pack.
Reports from Russia also say that the destroyed drones fell to the ground in thousands of pieces. In other words, conveniently, there is no hard evidence that the attack happened.
The Ukrainian government has denied any involvement in a drone attack on the Kremlin against Putin. Conveniently, Zelensky is in Finland for a state visit. Wisely, or perhaps prudently, he has postponed his return to Ukraine. It is suspected that he does not want to be around when the bombs fall on his underground bunker.
But another way to look at Zelensky’s decision to extend his visit to Finland is that he wanted to make time for a special operation against Putin. If successful, he could return home a hero. If it didn’t work out, he could find other things to do.
US officials also said that if a drone strike were to occur, Washington would receive no advance warning from Ukraine. This is a convenient way to evade responsibility, at least until there is evidence to the contrary. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Russian claim that there was an attack must be taken with “a very large salt shaker”.
The Russians say they will respond to the attack on the Kremlin at a time and place of their choosing. That announcement actually adds a glimmer of credibility to Russia’s claims that the attack took place. If the Russians could track down the team that launched the drones, that would really be something – but don’t hold your breath.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and at the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published by the author Substack weapons and strategy. It has been republished here with permission. Follow Stephen Bryen on Twitter @stevebryen
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