Global Courant 2023-05-12 11:36:58
BANGKOK – A dynastic daughter of the billionaire, anti-coup Shinawatra family is leading certain polls to become prime minister after Sunday’s (May 14) national election.
But her potential victory is far from assured due to an unelected military-appointed senate that will hold 250 seats for the kingdom’s next leader.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36 and politically inexperienced, pledged during the campaign to give every Thai adult the Thai baht equivalent of $10,000 and make recreational cannabis illegal again. While nursing her newborn baby boy.
To spend more time with her child, Paetongtarn Peua could allow Thai’s Srettha Thavisin, a real estate magnate, to become prime minister if the party wins and can form a coalition government.
Throughout the 21st century, the Shinawatras and the military have fought an insidious political blood feud that has sparked new concerns of a coup if the family wins a major victory on May 14.
The family’s dynastic hold on a large group of opposition voters, particularly in the densely populated and impoverished northeast of the country, is of concern to many Thais outside the military. A large turnout cast votes during “advance voting” that began Sunday (May 7) — a week before polls close on Sunday (May 14).
After the vote count, competing parties will struggle to form a coalition and then announce a new prime minister, likely by September.
Voters can choose candidates and parties to fill only the 500-member House of Representatives of Parliament. The military controls the 250-seat Senate of Parliament, which has a five-year term and can vote on the next prime minister until next year.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha and his newly formed United Thai Nation (UTN) party are trailing in polls ahead of his re-election. Prayut, describing his devout altruism and nationalism, said in a May 7 campaign speech:
“I have functioned as Prime Minister in the most dutiful and ethical manner for the past eight years.”
Prayut’s new United Thai Nation Party is trailing in opinion polls. Image: Twitter/Screengrab/SE Asia Globe
Prayut was chief of the armed forces in May 2014 when he led a bloodless coup against the elected civilian government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Paetongtarn’s aunt.
“If I did everything for personal gain, would I have lasted as long as prime minister?” he said.
For years, Prayut ruled as the leader of a junta, banning political activity, arresting civilian opponents and taking other harsh measures.
“There should be no more coup,” he recently told reporters. “If a serious conflict arises again, I don’t know how to resolve it, because I have nothing to do with it now.”
Army Chief General Narongpan Jittkaewtae also responded to Thailand’s latest public spasm of fear of a coup on May 11, telling reporters, “I can assure you that what happened in the past, the chances are zero now.”
“We have reached a point where democracy must continue. Everyone should be attentive and avoid what should not be done,” the army chief said.
Old soldier Prayut gives foreign governments and investors a sanitized, dynamic and happy picture of Thailand.
Prayut passed a constitution in 2017 that strengthened the power of the Constitutional Court to dissolve political parties and exile their leaders.
The Constitutional Court may dissolve Paetongtarn’s or any party that commits election violations, engages in conflicts of interest or other illegalities before, during or after the election.
“I would expect the Constitutional Court to find an excuse to force Thaksin’s daughter out of office before a military coup took place,” said Paul Chambers, a social sciences lecturer and specialist in Thai politics at the Center for Southeast Asia. from Naresuan University.
“If there were angry demonstrations after the ‘judicial coup’, then there could be a military coup that would take place before the annual military redeployment, which regularly takes place on September 30,” Chambers said in an interview.
The dangers of a coup increase exponentially when a victorious Paetongtarn allows her convicted father and his sister – former Prime Ministers Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck – to return from self-exile with no criminal convictions or pending charges for corruption.
Paetongtarn has said she will bring her convicted self-exiled father home to Thailand. Image: Twitter
If the Shinawatra siblings return without arrest, Thailand will be torn between those who adore Thaksin, now 73, and those who despise him. Clashes for and against him have killed hundreds in the streets of Bangkok in recent years.
Some see Paetongtarn as a possible placeholder for her father who, after fleeing Thailand, inspires supporters with online announcements.
Thaksin, a former police officer and telecommunications magnate, was elected prime minister in 2001 and 2005. Both Shinawatra fugitives maintain that the corruption allegations against them are politically motivated.
Throughout the 21st century, Thailand has gone back and forth between governments led by the Shinawatra family, alternating with coup-installed military regimes.
Thai politics is swirling with hatred, revenge, threats, elections, coups, juntas, lawsuits, prison sentences and self-exiled citizens.
Opponents fear the Shinawatras, especially Thaksin, who claim they plunder and destroy the land when they rule.
Supporters devoted to the Shinawatras praise Thaksin for providing universal “30 baht (88 US cents) health care” in government hospitals, easy credit for the poor, scholarships and other populist policies.
However, the number of Shinawatra votes may be divided.
Those who want a tougher attack on the military’s political power are flocking to the smaller, more liberal Move Forward Party (MFP) led by Harvard University-educated Pita Limjaroenrat.
Pita is much more outspoken about challenging the military and is willing to join any coalition unrelated to coups or the armed forces.
“The next government should be made up of parties coming from the opposition bloc – the MFP, Pheu Thai, Seri Ruam Thai and Prachachat,” Pita said on May 7.
Pita Limjaroenrat, center, is reportedly rising in opinion polls just days before the election. Image: Twitter
Pita’s apparent surging popularity is based in part on his stance that “precluded any partnership with the military, earning his party the approval of many indecisive voters,” Bangkok Post columnist and assistant news editor Chairith Yongpiam wrote on May 6.
Pita and his MFP “may overtake Bhum Jai Thai (BJT) as number two,” making MFP the second-biggest winner of the election after Paetongtarn’s PTP, which is expected to become number one, Chairith said.
BJT party leader and prime ministerial candidate Anutin Charnvirakul, is health minister in the Prayut government and is famous in Thailand for pushing cannabis to become legal for adults last year.
Anutin endorses cannabis for medicinal use only and promises that Thailand will become rich by growing marijuana.
Thousands of cannabis vendors opened stores across Thailand selling expensive indica, sativa and hybrids – smuggled from California or legally grown locally. They say tens of thousands of customers, mostly foreign tourists, are buying.
Anutin has volunteered to join any coalition — military or civilian — that keeps marijuana legal for adults.
Paetongtarn is demanding that weed be made illegal again, except in limited clinics among medical staff who treat patients in need. Paetongtarn’s stance against recreational marijuana would devastate Thailand’s burgeoning public cannabis retail market.
Pita and his MFP are in favor of more tightly regulated recreational cannabis for adults.
Paetongtarn’s new populist plan is to give the equivalent of $10,000 to every Thai over the age of 16 – rich or poor – to revive Thailand’s Covid-ravaged economy.
Prayut’s re-election prospects, meanwhile, seem less certain. He is also hampered by a political expiration date.
The Constitutional Court recently ruled that Prayut has been in power since 2014, so he can only be re-elected for two years, instead of the normal four years.
Born in 1945, ex-army chief Prawit Wongsuwan was the deputy prime minister of Prayut and is eligible for a four-year term. Prawit insists he did not take part in the 2014 coup and later joined the junta.
After the election, Prawit and Prayut will be able to combine their House seats with other current coalition parties, plus the Senate’s 250 appointees.
Prawit Wongsuwan, center, barely follows polls on the next prime minister. Image: Twitter
If that isn’t enough to form a parliamentary majority, they could declare a military-dominated “minority government”.
To become Prime Minister, a candidate needs a majority of 376 parliamentary votes out of a total of 750 MPs. “The senate with 250 senators will vote almost entirely for Prayut or Prawit,” Chambers said.
Either would only need an additional 126 seats from the current coalition parties to get a total of 376 and become prime minister.
“That means Peua Thai needs an extreme majority to win – 376 seats,” said Chambers. “If the Peua Thai or Move Forward Party is dissolved, it will become impossible for Peua Thai to form a coalition.”
PTP and MFP also compete for votes. MFP appeals to Thailand’s younger generations, including some who have abandoned Paetongtarn over its anti-recreational cannabis stance.
“I will vote Peua Thai not because I like Thaksin, but just to change this government,” said an exasperated transport worker.
“Over the past eight years, the prices of food, gasoline and everything have gone up too much. Pita is good too, but Pita and their MFP are mainly for young people,’ said the middle-aged man.
Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent who has been reporting from Asia since 1978. Excerpts from his two new non-fiction books, “Rituals. killers. Wars. & Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York” and “Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks” are available here.
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