Global Courant 2023-05-17 13:19:10
Once a dominant political force, Taiwan’s main opposition party lost the last two presidential elections largely because it has fostered closer ties with China. Faced with voters alarmed by Beijing’s aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is pinning its hopes on a new type of candidate: a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny issue of China.
The Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, on Wednesday nominated as its presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a 66-year-old, two-term mayor of New Taipei City and former police chief who has tried to strike a middle ground within the Kuomintang over the island’s relations with China . Mr. Hou launched his bid with a call.
“We must unite for victory, especially at this stage where our country is facing fierce and dangerous international circumstances,” said Mr. Love after the announcement of his nomination.
His candidacy forms the basis for a tight race in January, that could set a new course for Taiwan in the great-power standoff between China and the United States and reshape tensions around the Taiwan Strait, one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints. Under the seven-year leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan has come under increasing military and diplomatic pressure from China and been pushed back by strengthening ties with the United States.
Within the Kuomintang, Mr Hou is regarded as a capable administrator with broad appeal, who would “cause the least internal party controversy, align with society’s general expectations and have the greatest chance of winning in the presidential election,” said Huang Kwei. —Bo, professor of international relations at National Chengchi University and former deputy secretary general of the Nationalist Party.
Mr Hou’s appointment pits him against Lai Ching-te, the ruling party’s candidate and current vice president. A victory for Mr Lai would likely mean a continuation of China’s policy of freezing Taiwan of any high-level involvement, as well as Taiwan’s continued proximity to the United States. A victory for Mr Hou and the Kuomintang could reopen communication channels with China and ease military tensions, potentially easing pressure on Taiwan to strengthen ties with Washington.
Mr Hou faced stiff competition from Terry Gou, the founder of the iPhone and electronics manufacturer Foxconn, who failed to make his case for nomination despite meetings on the island. Analysts said Mr. Gou’s lack of experience in politics and his business interests in China made him an unviable candidate for the Kuomintang.
The Kuomintang has struggled in recent years to balance its China-friendly leanings with Taiwanese people’s souring sentiment towards Beijing. That juggling act was complicated by Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong in 2019 and the ramped-up military exercises in Taiwan. The ruling DPP has positioned itself as a defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy, pointing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an example of the pressing threat of authoritarian expansionism.
But the Kuomintang scored big last year, winning in nearly two-thirds of contested local mayoral elections, races in which geopolitics matter less than bread-and-butter issues. Mr Hou handily won his re-election as mayor and has since topped multiple polls within the party for the candidacy.
Unlike most politicians in Taiwan, Mr. Hou started his career as a police officer in the 1980s. He rose through the ranks and was a key investigator in the 2004 assassination attempt on President Chen Shui-bian. Chen mr. Hou as the island’s chief of police, the youngest officer ever to serve in that position.
When he entered politics in 2010, he aligned himself with Eric Chu, who was then mayor of New Taipei City. Mr. Hou was deputy mayor under Mr. Chu and succeeded Mr. Chu as mayor in 2018. Mr. Chu is now the chairman of the Kuomintang.
Supporters of Mr. Hou in New Taipei City say he is taking real actions to improve the lives of residents. Jax Chen, a 28-year-old non-profit worker, cited Mr Hou’s attempt to convert a giant, decades-old rubbish dump into green park space as an example.
“On the political scene in Taiwan, it seems like everyone just talks too much,” he said. “But if there is a person who is pragmatic and able to enforce policy, I think it would be great and everyone would be willing to accept that person.”
Less well established are Mr Hou’s views on important geopolitical issues, such as how Taiwan should navigate its relations with China and the United States. China claims Taiwan as its territory, to be absorbed by force if necessary, and accuses the DPP of seeking formal independence. The Kuomintang has claimed that it is the party with the best chance of attacking China and avoiding war.
In an apparent attempt to get the point across, Mr. Hou has said he opposes both Taiwan’s independence and the “one country, two systems” formulation proposed by China to include Taiwan. The position eschews two extremes, but leaves open a wide range of possible points of view on the existential question of relations between the two straits.
The lack of clarity about his stance on China has already been criticized by some observers, a potential disadvantage for him on top of his lack of experience in foreign affairs, said Paul Chao-hsiang Chu, a professor of politics at National Taiwan Normal University who studies party politics and voter behavior.
At the same time, Hou’s restraint could make him more attractive to downtown voters, said Liao Da-chi, a professor emeritus of political science at National Sun Yat-Sen University. That is in contrast to Han Kuo-yu, the 2020 Kuomintang presidential candidate, who made rousing speeches and promised to restore closer relations with China, but lost to President Tsai in a landslide.
Overall, Mr. Hou has had very little interaction with the United States, said Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwanese expert and general manager of the Indo-Pacific Program at the United States’ German Marshall Fund. Mr. Hou has said he met at least eight times with officials from the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto embassy for the United States. But US congressional delegations to Taiwan have not been able to meet him since the reopening.
Beijing is causing tension in the Taiwan Strait and the Kuomintang’s contact with China has sometimes put it in a difficult position.
Earlier this year, just as President Tsai was traveling to the United States, Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan and an influential leader in the Kuomintang, left for an unofficial trip to China. Mr Ma was criticized in Taiwan for appearing to come to China during an inappropriately timed visit. (In retaliation for Ms. Tsai’s visit to the United States, China sent a record number of military aircraft, as well as naval vessels and an aircraft carrier, to Taiwan to conduct military exercises.)
“To win the election, it is imperative for the Kuomintang to convince the people that voting for them is the safer and more promising choice to achieve peace,” said Dr. Chu. “At the same time, a major challenge for Kuomintang is how it would convince the Taiwanese people that they will not betray Taiwan or allow China to completely swallow Taiwan’s sovereignty.”
