Global Courant 2023-05-24 05:58:32
There have been reports of fighting in Russia involving pro-Ukrainian or anti-Putin forces fighting in Belgorod Oblast. This is a region close to Russia’s border with Ukraine, with a mixed Russian and Ukrainian ethnic population. It is common knowledge that Russia has done that urgently displaced nuclear weapons from a storage facility in the region.
Details are so far sketchy, but the fighting is reported to involve the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) and other groups, including the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), which began after a May 22 attack on the Russian border village of Kozinka in Belgorod. oblast. Ukrainian partisans and other pro-Ukrainian forces have been fighting in the region since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022.
There is a lot of speculation about the attack and it should be noted that there is intense misinformation coming from both sides, meaning full verification is impossible at this stage.
The level of military action is reportedly quite low, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) contained the attacking force “two tanks, an armored personnel carrier and nine other armored vehicles”. But the significance of attacks on Russian soil, regardless of the origins of the belligerents, cannot be underestimated, as it marks an escalation of the war – if only in relation to its geographical location.
Who is involved?
The LSR consists of Russian citizens, including defectors and volunteers. It is believed to be part of it The International Legion of Ukrainea group of volunteers that has been compared to the International Brigades who fought on the side of the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War.
This is important because it is International Legion part of the formal command and control structure of the Ukrainian army. In fact, if the LSR is involved, this could mean that the operation in Belgorod is an attack by the Ukrainian state on Russian soil, rather than a partisan operation.
The ISW, which follows the campaign daily, has done so located and confirmed the attack on Kozinka. But further attacks in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod have yet to be confirmed.
The LSR said in a post on Telegram, translated by Reuters: “Once again, the myth that the citizens of the Russian Federation are safe and the Russian Federation is strong has been shattered.”
The Governor of Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, residents advised who had left not to return home and said people will be informed “when it is safe” and “the counter-terrorism operation is over”.
The LSR message also acknowledges the involvement of Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) at the attack. This group consists of Russian nationalist paramilitaries. Leader Denis Kapustin, better known as Dennis Nikitinstates that Russia “went completely the wrong way.”
The RDK has been identified by Bellingcat journalist Michael Colbourne as “consisting largely of ostensibly anti-Putin Russian far-right extremists in Ukraine.” Any official involvement with the Ukrainian military is unclear.
Unlike an earlier raid on 3 March in Bryansk Oblast, which had a limited scope and lasted only a few hours, the May 22 attack appears to have been more coordinated. And apparently it extended further into Russian territory, involving more troops and military hardware.
What it means
The main factor influencing future analysis is how the attack is mounted by Ukraine and Russia, as well as the wider community. Moscow is eager to reject the attack an act of Ukrainian terrorists.
Meanwhile, Andrii Yusov, spokesman for the Main Intelligence Service of Ukraine (GUR), is adamant that Ukraine had nothing to do with the events in Belgorod. He has claimed in Pravda, a Ukrainian news site, that the troops involved were local anti-Putin ones.
The situation is therefore that an unofficial unit that has joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a group of Russian anti-Putin fighters have allegedly carried out an attack on Russian soil. If true, this would mean an escalation in the war.
While Ukraine denies involvement in the attack, the military hardware and equipment available to the attacking personnel – including tanks and armored personnel carriers – make it unlikely that they were not provided by Ukraine, or countries sympathetic to Ukraine.
Map: Wikipedia
However, the Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolya tweeted: “As you know, tanks are sold in every Russian military store and underground guerrilla groups are made up of Russian citizens.”
The debate is then not really about the state of the attack or the advance. The question is rather: has Kiev launched an attack on Russian soil and, if so, what are the consequences of that action?
More specifically, what will it tell us about Vladimir Putin’s grip on power and the ability of Russian troops to maneuver or mobilize to counter, especially if this attack gains momentum without a significant response?
Gavin EL Hall is a teaching fellow in political science and international security at the University of Strathclyde.
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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