Global Courant 2023-05-26 11:45:48
Chinese are trying to reassure Russians who, after watching Chinese President Xi Jinping hold the first China-Central Asia summit in Xi’an last week, fear Moscow will lose control in the Central Asian countries that reigned.
A Kremlin official and a Russian defense columnist recently expressed concern about loosening ties between Russia and five countries of the former Soviet Union: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (C5).
The comments came after Beijing pledged to provide 26 billion yuan ($3.67 billion) in financial aid and aid to the five countries in the region.
Chinese commentators said the Russians shouldn’t worry too much, as China only takes care of C5 “on behalf of Russia”.
Meanwhile, Chinese and Russian officials signed a series of agreements on trade and sports cooperation during Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s visit to China on Wednesday.
Xi told Mishustin that China and Russia will “continue to provide strong support to each other on issues affecting each other’s core interests and strengthen cooperation in multilateral arenas,” the Xinhua news agency reported. During his meeting with Premier Li Qiang, Mishustin said Sino-Russian relations are at an all-time high.
When China still had its zero-Covid policy last September, Xi visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and a personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was his first trip abroad since the pandemic broke out in early 2020.
On May 17 Presidents C5 arrived in Xi’an, the starting point of the ancient Chinese Silk Road to Europe, and attended the China-Central Asia Summit on May 18-19. They were received by Xi with grand ceremony.
Since then, Mishustin has been promoting a proposal for Chinese investment in 79 projects worth about $165 billion in Russia’s energy, mining and agriculture sectors. The details of the plan are not available even after Xi and Putin signed a joint statement on March 21 to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties.
‘Color Revolutions’
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a May 17 press briefing that the Central Asian countries are well aware that “neither the West nor anyone else” can or will recoup their losses if they choose to cut ties with Russia.
“We assume that our partners also understand that the potential losses from curtailing ties with our country would immeasurably outweigh the effect of the notorious secondary sanctions,” she said.
Chinese and Russian officials sign a series of agreements on trade and sports cooperation on May 24, 2023. Photo: Xinhua
A writer from Henan says that the words “someone else” mentioned in Zakharova’s speech clearly refer to China. He says Russia may be afraid that C5 will run away from it, but there is absolutely no need to, as China just wants to connect with its neighbours.
“Central Asian countries will not lean only to the West if they can choose to cooperate with China,” said a columnist from Hebei. say in his article. “China can help Russia protect the Central Asian region.”
He says US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan in late February and Uzbekistan in early March to promote the so-called C5+1 system and offered $25 million to improve trade and education in the region. He says the US could promote “color revolutions” like the one in Ukraine in 2004, in Central Asia.
New military block
The debate seems endless. On Tuesday, Russian defense journalist Roman Skomorokhov published a article titled “China is taking over Central Asia,” saying Xi openly offered to form a military bloc with the post-Soviet states, some of which are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Skomorokhov says Xi promised to give Central Asia 26 billion yuan in financial aid, which is quite decent if it is used to buy Chinese weapons.
He says China today has economic power and military strength, while some members may eventually leave EAEU and CSTO if a new C5+China military bloc is created.
He says such a trend will not pose any military threat to Russia, while the dissolution of the EAEU does not mean that Central Asian countries will abandon Russia. However, he doubts the Chinese are strong enough to handle the new military bloc and infrastructure projects in the region on their own.
“Maybe Skomorokhov is jealous of the close relations between China and C5, and his bitterness is just overwhelming,” say a Jiangsu-based writer in an article published Wednesday. “His strange outlook may represent that of some Russians. It may not be hostile to China, but it reflects Russia’s current feelings of helplessness.”
He says it’s normal for Russians to be upset since their country fell from a superpower and became a second-class nation struggling to win over Ukraine.
He says China should maintain a smooth channel for obtaining oil and gas from the Middle East through Central Asia, in case the US suddenly blocks China’s maritime routes.
Moscow at war cannot cover all bases
An adviser to multinational companies specializing in Russia who has requested anonymity told the Global Courant that the Kremlin wants to maintain its leadership in Central Asia, but this is impossible under the current circumstances.
He claims that Moscow is far from happy that Beijing is doing its job in Central Asia, but that it should not complain because China’s economic support is badly needed.
The expert says the Kremlin understands China wants to avoid forming a Sino-Russian military alliance, at least for now, and understands Beijing wants to maintain an economic relationship with the West. He says Russia, China and C5 are unlikely to form a new military bloc anytime soon.
He says China could consider a “sort of alliance” with Russia, but only in the event of a direct and serious threat from the United States allied with Japan. The anonymous source says the Russians don’t need such a formal alliance either. He adds that both China and Russia want freedom of action given that the national interests of both countries are far from the same.
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Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
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