Global Courant 2023-05-27 22:51:20
General Valerii Zaluzhny, appointed as Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in July 2021, also became a member of the National Security Council of Ukraine. Zaluzhny mysteriously went missing a few weeks ago. Now he has apparently resurfaced, if a short video released by the Ukrainian government is to be believed.
There were many rumors about Zaluzhny. The first was that he was killed, along with several other senior Ukrainian officers, during a meeting at a command post somewhere in eastern Ukraine. That rumor was soon followed by another – that he was in fact badly injured in the same command center when it was hit by a Russian Iskander missile. Some extensive rumors ensued that Zaluzhny had survived the blast but needed multiple surgeries and that while he would recover, he would never be available to command Ukraine’s army again.
Victoria Nuland. Photo: Wikipedia
Ukraine is planning a major offensive that will be launched “soon”. Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says the US was working with Ukraine on plans and operations for the upcoming offensive. That puts additional pressure on Zelensky to carry it out.
He hesitated – even though 12 brigades have been organized, nine of them equipped with American and European weapons, including Leopard tanks.
Many analysts believe that the Russians significantly outnumber the Ukrainian forces and have good equipment and many advantages. The most optimistic estimate is that the Ukrainians can make modest gains, but at a high cost.
These reviews help explain Zelensky’s nervousness.
There are other rumors pointing to an ongoing battle in Ukraine between military and civilian leaders. That battle is said to have resulted from the heavy losses recently suffered by the Ukrainian army, the almost complete exhaustion of the Ukrainian air force and the degradation of the Ukrainian air defenses.
If an offensive is launched, Ukraine will be largely without air cover for any advance and will face a heavily electronically blocked battlefield where Western smart weapons may not work as advertised.
Perhaps most divisive is what happened in Bakhmut. Despite all selfish propaganda, Bakhmut was a great defeat for Ukraine, the country poured so many soldiers into battle and suffered huge losses.
The Ukrainian army was against holding Bakhmut, the place both sides called a “meat grinder”. Zelensky was the main proponent of the Bakhmut battle (he even visited Chasiv Yar, a small town near Bakhmut that was used as a rallying and supply area) and of the rotation of troops in and out of the city. Reports say Ukraine rotated its troops six or seven times and units sent there suffered heavy casualties.
Many of the Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut wore green armbands (some also wore green on their helmets), indicating they were new recruits. Many of them were poorly trained. The 12 brigades that will be deployed in the upcoming offensive also have a lot of green bracelet boys, not a good way to launch a major operation. Ukraine has few skilled workers.
This brings us to Zaluzhny. He is considered a first class commander, admired by his troops and extremely smart and capable. But where is he?
The Military Summary Channel (found on YouTube) is generally a reliable and objective source for war news. The canal rated the new Zaluzhny video and found a major discrepancy, questioning its authenticity.
Judge yourself. Is it the same person> Photos: Government of Ukraine
The music video released in Ukraine, which lasts only a few seconds, shows Zaluzhny sitting at his desk.
The video shows him waving and chatting to the cameraman, but there is no sound.
The wavy motion is also rather odd. It’s hard to remember a military or civilian leader waving at a cameraman.
As you can see, the photo above is a screenshot of the video with two inserts: on the right is an insert of a well-known photo of Zaluzhny. On the left is an inset from the screenshot.
In the authentic photo, Zaluzhny has blue eyes. In the latest video, he has brown eyes.
There are also some facial differences if you look closely, especially the nose.
Is the video Zaluzhny a double? We live in an age of deep fakes where AI technology can mimic almost any video image.
With questions emerging like those suggested by the Military Summary Channel, we’ll have to wait for conclusive evidence on the general.
Another mystery: the case of Ivan Khurs
The same kind of problem arises over the fate of the Ivan Khurs, the Russian spy ship that was attacked by three Ukrainian naval drones filled with explosives. The Ukrainians made a video that claims the Ivan Khurs was hit by one of the drones and sank.
The Russians have made a video showing the Ivan Khurs returning to the port of Sevastopol without any evidence of damage.
The photo shows the Russian ship Ivan Khurs entering Sevastopol. It appears undamaged and is operating under its own power (no tugs). Photo: Russian government / Twitter
What’s true?
My own opinion is that if a Russian ship was outflanked by a drone at sea, the Russians would immediately send rescue teams and planes. None have been seen. I also wonder how the Russians got their video after the ship sank. Not possible.
The naval gun was an automatic naval version of the 14.5mm Vladimirov KPVT (SARP model) capable of firing armor-piercing and incendiary bombs at a rate of 70 to 80 rounds per minute. That gun on the Ivan Khurs was remote-controlled, stabilized and connected to the ship’s radar.
Unlike the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva on April 14, 2022 by Ukraine – where the crew was asleep or the radar subjected to electronic countermeasures from a US P-8 aircraft – the attack on the Ivan Khurs was clearly noticed. by the ship’s lookouts and radar.
So I think the Ukrainian version of Ivan Khurs’ story is fake. The same goes for the Zaluzhny video.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
Similar:
Loading…
