Global Courant 2023-05-30 06:52:43
Now comes the hard part.
If you thought it was hard for President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to broker a debt ceiling agreement, wait and see if getting the bill through Congress is even more challenging .
Both the president and the speaker will test their persuasiveness to get the votes lined up for the deal.
It is quite clear that the wings of both parties – the far right and the far left – are outraged by this pact.
BIDEN, MCCARTHY REACH DEBT CEILING AGREEMENT TO AVOID DEFAULT: HERE’S WHAT’S INSIDE
No one really knows how many yes and no there are to this plan until House whip operations start humming as lawmakers roll into Washington after a shortened Memorial Day recess.
There have been multiple press calls, a few press conferences from the speaker outside his office, conference calls with lawmakers and comments from Mr. Biden. But until everyone is actually huddled in the Capitol, the vote count is unclear. Especially after a whirlwind weekend full of political intrigue and behind-the-scenes negotiations.
At first glance, the bill should pass. It received the support of the President, Speaker, Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and other prominent legislators. There is a broad, bipartisan group of members in the center who could vote to approve this plan – even if no one is really excited about the measure. Fox was even told there could be a scenario where 240-270 members could vote yes – and maybe more.
But it is a delicate balance to find the right mix of votes for this parliamentary cocktail. There is a good chance that something will go wrong or that a dramatic miscalculation will occur on both sides when relying on those across the aisle to provide the necessary votes.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, leaves a news conference following the weekly Republican caucus luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, DC, U.S., on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. The Senate voted Tuesday to pass a stop-gap funding bill to keeping the government afloat after a bid to include a controversial energy licensing bill was dropped. (Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Calling on a holiday weekend is one thing. But leaders want to look co-legislators in the eye to understand where they really stand on the issue and whether they can count on their voices.
Here’s the guiding question for the GOP: Will conservative interest groups and outraged voters start ripping off the phones in the Capitol and tearing up Republicans in the middle of the road for supporting the plan? There could be attrition on the right if those legislators take too much heat and walk away.
Here’s the guiding question for the Democrats: In fact, there are two: What exactly did they get out of this deal? And why should they be called upon to save majority Republicans?
This is why the stakes for miscalculation are high. Both parties expect a certain number of votes from the other party.
DEBT CEILING AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE BETWEEN DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS
McCarthy has significantly increased his political capital and strengthened his bona fide relationships with members of the Republican House since January’s difficult vote for Speaker. So this conversation might be a little different if the vote were to come in late January or February. Therefore, McCarthy should be able to get a significant portion of his conference’s vote. It’s unclear how many votes House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., can deliver. But honestly, this isn’t really about Jeffries. This is about President Biden. He’s the chairman. He is the leader of the party. It’s a problem if Mr. Biden can’t provide the required votes to drag this across the finish line.
But like McCarthy, President Biden also has political barnacles. His position is weak in the polls. In fact, one of the most compelling arguments Mr. Biden could make to reluctant Democrats is “don’t undermine my presidency and the economy” by voting no.
And we probably wouldn’t even talk about the political ability of President Biden and McCarthy to persuade members to vote yes if it weren’t for two factors. Democrats are blasé about Mr. Biden. McCarthy endured the longest race to become Speaker since 1859.
This brings us back to the infamous vote on TARP (the Troubled Assets Relief Program) at the end of September 2008. President George W. Bush and the Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress reluctantly decided to spend more than $700 billion to rebuild the US economy. and a nationwide fiscal collapse. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had a significant portion of Democrats willing to vote yes. But Mr. Bush failed to deliver House Republicans. The GOP was tired of President Bush. The party left their president. No one really knew how many votes Republicans had. But they failed to keep their side of the bargain.
U.S. President George W. Bush reacts after a correspondent threw shoes at him during a joint press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, not seen, in Baghdad, Iraq, December 14, 2008. (AP Photo/Thaier al-Sudani)
Could the Democrats abandon President Biden here?
The original version of TARP failed on the house floor. And the market crashed in sync with the vote in the House. The Dow finally lost what was then a one-day record, falling 777 points.
Trust between the parties also plummeted.
The undersigned asked McCarthy if he would wait to put the debt limit on the table until the market closed.
REPUBLICANS ENSURE MASSIVE APPROVAL OF GAS PIPE IN DEBT CEILING AGREEMENT
“You spend a lot of time coming up with crazy things,” McCarthy replied.
The other problem is simply moving the bill from the House Rules Committee to the floor.
Almost any piece of legislation that gets to the House floor must first get a “rule” from the Rules panel. The Rules Committee determines how the House deals with a particular piece of legislation. That includes time and whether any changes are okay. If the committee does not approve a rule – and if the House itself does not approve the rule – there is no bill.
Most of the speakers have led the Rules Committee with an iron fist. But as part of his concessions to conservatives, McCarthy awarded three seats on the panel to ardent conservatives whose views sometimes differ from the Speaker’s: Reps. Ralph Norman, RS.C., Chip Roy, R-Tex., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., will hold a news conference at U.S. Capitols Statuary Hall on Thursday, January 12, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
McCarthy checked Massie Sunday when he touted a provision to keep the line of credit accounts pushed by Massie as an item in the legislation. In other words, if Massie scored his idea in law, how could he oppose it?
But Norman and Roy were furious about the legislation.
Norman called the bill “idiot.” Roy characterized the legislation with less than drooling language.
A senior House GOP source told Fox before McCarthy praised the Massie language that they believed “Massie is most likely to vote for the rule in committee and on the floor.” But if all three refuse, Republicans will need a Democrat on the Rules Committee to vote to jettison the measure.
No line, no bill.
The Rules Committee has not failed to approve a rule in its panel in recent times. Once in a blue moon, a member of the majority has a problem with the bill or the rule itself. So instead of voting no, those members “just take a walk” or are mysteriously absent from the committee meeting.
Late House Speaker Tip O’Neill, D-Mass., served on the Rules Committee in the 1960s. In his biography “Man Of the House,” O’Neill recounts how he and future Rules Committee chairman, Rep. Jim Delaney, DN.Y., broke their party’s ranks and voted no to an education bill in the early 1960s. Such a move is rare.
No one Fox asked could track down a recent case of a minority member who once voted for a rule to help the majority pass a bill to the floor.
All of this makes for a very interesting Rules Committee meeting on Tuesday afternoon.
So, will they have the votes?
This is reminiscent of the legendary Life cereal commercials in the 70s and 80s.
Three brothers sit at the breakfast table pushing around a bowl of Life cereal and refuse to eat it.
“I’m not going to try. You try!” says a boy.
Finally, they push the bowl for the pickiest load of them all. Mikey.
“Let’s get Mikey,” says a brother. “He hates everything.”
Suddenly, Mikey starts devouring the cereal.
“He loves it!” exclaims a brother.
The taste test, complete, they all dig in.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
This bill is a bit like the Life commercial for breakfast cereal. Some members are hesitant to vote for the bill until they see someone else vote first.
The only difference is that Mikey actually liked the cereal he was eating. This legislation is not nearly as pleasing to the political palette.
Chad Pergram is currently senior congressional correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based in Washington, DC
