Global Courant
While claiming victory in the battle of Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), gave another of his Firebrand Interviews.
In unequivocal terms, he denounced Russia’s defense minister and his chief of staff, Russia’s “deep state” — namely the presidential government and the “quasi-defense” establishment — and the elites who protect their sons from the fronts.
He revealed that he doesn’t understand what the war in Ukraine is being fought for, but “as long as there’s fighting, we have to fight it well” – even though he added that the long war to come would take a huge toll. In this, Prigozhin spoke the bitter truth – which raises the question of how he gets away with it, while others face jail terms for much milder criticism.
The answer is that he reflects the views of a significant part of Russian society. These people are pro-war, but critical of the way it is fought, and stripped of the corruption and incompetence that have killed the military.
This anti-elite but “patriotic” sentiment is shared by those who, under certain circumstances, can act politically and, if necessary, forcefully, giving Prigozhin a sense of popular resonance.
Prominent among these figures are the “heroes” of the so-called Russian Springthe men who fought in the uprising in Donbas from 2014 onwards. The common narrative in the west is that this uprising was solely a Kremlin’s guess.
But my research with leaders like Igor Strelkov (real name Girkin) and field commanders suggested otherwise. Many of these commanders were motivated by personal convictions – contrary to Putin’s regime, they dreamed of an idealized Russian world in a new one “Novorossiya” in Eastern Ukrainein contrast to the crony capitalism that characterizes Putin’s Russia.
I was convinced that they were sincere in their faith and willing to give their own lives and the lives of others to pursue a higher purpose. I came to believe that when critical circumstances arise, this group will have a role to play – and they may.
The Russian state, initially not knowing how to deal with these fiercely pro-Russian but unruly characters, realized that they could be dangerous. They have been suppressed since 2017.
Sputnik-i-Pogrom, the main online intellectual source of right-wing Russian nationalism blockedand its editor Yegor Prosvirnin died under suspicious circumstances in 2021. Those who survived were kept under control and kept out of the media and politics, so they focused their energies”milblogging.”
Men who love war
These are men who love war and all that goes with it – the weapons, the tactics, historical battles, wargaming, uniforms, belligerence. They exist in every society, but in Russia, the intervention in Ukraine created an opportunity for them to gain political prominence.
These “internet warriors” emerged from the obscure fringes into the political limelight. Their sources attract a large audience on the popular app Telegram.
Channels like Rijbar (1.13 million subscribers), WarGonzo (1.3 million) and personalities Igor Strelkovthe former “defense minister” of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, who started the first uprising in 2014 (790,000), have drawn more supporters in Russia than their liberal counterparts.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group, speaks in Bakhmut in a video released earlier this year. Photo: Telegram channel / @concordgroup_official
They post articles, videos and engage in conversation with their audience, classifying themselves as voenkory or war correspondents. Viewers appreciate their candid assessment of front-line reality, their real-world sources, captivating journalism, and interesting guests.
Collective emotions are important, and the “warriors” have created a subculture that has proven contagious. It has its own legends, such as Vladlen Tatarsky (Maxim Fomin), who robbed banks, served time, escaped prison when a tank fired on him, fought in the Donbas uprising, published three memoirs and hosted a popular channel. He was recently killed in a targeted explosion. For Tatarsky and those like him, war was an adventure worth living, even if it was only a short one.
The “Reverse of the medal”, a YouTube channel in which Tatarsky was involved markets martial clothes and insignia, such as those of the Wagner group – a red skull with two mortar shells – that have become a stamp of recognition among followers.
Cultural clash
Thus, two radically different military cultures collide: rigid and top-heavy Ministry of Defense which has the resources of the state behind it, and the guerrilla tactics of volunteers and private military companies (PMCs) that rely on improvisation and initiative.
These two groups are wary of each other. The Department of Defense has been reluctant to provide large amounts of ammunition to Wagner. Meanwhile, Prigozhin lashes out at them for the military failure. Putin, meanwhile, watches and seems to enjoy the challenged generals.
The state cannot afford to alienate this “warrior” constituency, as it may have to rely on them both on the front lines and to help maintain a pro-war momentum in society. But the Kremlin is also aware of the risks involved – “warriors” like Prigozhin can be difficult to control and can develop ambitions.
Their camp is not uniform, and personal animosities and differing views on Russia’s future exist. And yet, the outlines of a political force that could influence post-Putin Russia’s outcomes are beginning to emerge.
If an internal crisis – Putin suddenly dies, for example – opens up an opportunity and the ruling elite loses control, this constituency will be the most willing to act. Thanks to people like Prigozhin, they will have organizational, financial and media resources.
Prigozhin will become a kingmaker, even if he is not a king himself. Therefore, we need to look beyond seeing the hand of the Kremlin everywhere and notice autonomous actors who can become movers and shakers of the new order.
Anna Matveeva is visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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