Global Courant
A Ukrainian soldier fires a rocket launcher during a military exercise not far from the frontline in the Donetsk region on June 8, 2023.
Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images
The collapse of a strategically important dam in Russian-occupied Ukraine raises questions about Kiev’s ability to launch a long-awaited counter-offensive, but analysts think the resulting carnage is unlikely to deter the next phase of the war.
The Nova Kakhovka Dam, located on the Dnieper River, was blown up on Tuesday. The rupture has since wreaked havoc in part of southern Ukraine, with tens of thousands of people displaced as entire cities were reduced to ruins by the gushing floodwaters.
Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam, while the Kremlin denied the attack, saying Kiev deliberately sabotaged the dam to divert attention from the counter-offensive. CNBC has not been able to independently verify the claims.
The dam burst comes amid months of preparation for Ukraine’s counter-offensive, a phase of the war many see as potentially crucial in Kiev’s push for victory.
NBC news reported Thursday that Ukraine had finally launched its counter-offensive, citing a senior officer and a soldier near the front lines. The report said a spate of Ukrainian attacks on the war’s southeastern front lines appeared to reflect a major new impetus.
However, a spokesman for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Friday dismissed reports that a counter-offensive had begun. according to Reuters. The government of Ukraine has repeatedly said that there will be no public announcement of the start of the counter-offensive.
Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe adviser at Teneo, a political risk consultancy, said the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam could change Ukraine’s offensive plans, but that they are “unlikely to derail”.
In a note published Thursday, Tursa said intensified and offensive actions by Ukraine could signal the start of a wider campaign, but it will likely be “gradual and cautious.”
It was long expected that Ukraine’s offensive would be aimed at liberating the southeastern regions of the country, which could break Russia’s ‘land bridge’ to Crimea, split the occupier and pose new risks to the Russian military assets on the peninsula,” Tursa said.
While this is likely to remain one of its objectives, Ukraine is also under increasing political pressure to demonstrate that Western military equipment and training have enabled it to deal major blows to Russian forces and recapture significant parts of occupied territory. no matter where it is.”
Volunteers sail on boats during an evacuation from a flooded area in Kherson on June 8, 2023, following damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station dam.
Genya Savilov | Afp | Getty Images
If Russia is behind the dam’s destruction, and it was approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin and military leaders, Tursa said “it shows a lack of confidence in their ability to defend the entire frontline by conventional means.”
In addition, the dam’s collapse sends a message to the international community that Moscow is willing to continue using “asymmetric, escalating and highly destructive defense methods, even if that also harms Russian interests,” Tursa added.
Consequences of the Nova Kakhovka dam breach
Ukraine has long warned that the Nova Kakhovka dam was a target for Russia. In November, Kiev expressed concern that the dam could be destroyed by retreating Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, also said he doesn’t expect the destruction of the dam to make much difference to the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
“This is not where the ‘land bridge’ (to Crimea) is most easily broken, so that is unlikely to have an impact,” Bremmer said via Twitter on Wednesday, stressing the importance of waiting for evidence on who was behind the collapse of the dam sat.
Russian troops and occupation authorities have since tried to exacerbate the humanitarian impact of the flooding following Tuesday’s dam breach, according to analysis of the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank.
This includes Russian troops hiding among civilians trying to evacuate from flooded settlements on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, according to the think tank, and reported shelling of a flooded evacuation site in Kherson City, which killed one civilian and several others were injured.
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko, meanwhile, said that the floodwaters released after the dam explosion will “definitely” complicate a counter-offensive in this area.
“We have hundreds of miles more of the front lines, so there (are places) to attack, but in this exact spot it will be more difficult. I’m not a soldier, so I can’t possibly not use the word. I don’t know but definitely much harder,” Goncharenko said in an interview with Channel 4 News.
(TagsToTranslate)Volodymyr Zelenskyy
