Global Courant
The record-breaking fires in Nova Scotia came as a shock to a region known for relatively mild and wet weather. But rather than being an anomaly, they are a sign of things to come for Atlantic Canada, experts say.
That’s because of how climate change is disrupting underlying weather patterns in the region, making it more susceptible to intense and longer fire seasons.
“People don’t normally think of fires in the Maritimes or wildfires here,” said Anthony Taylor, a professor of forest management at the University of New Brunswick in Fredericton.
“But cases like last week hit the fact that it’s happening here, and it can happen on a large scale here.”
As the fires in Nova Scotia show this year, wildfires in Eastern Canada may not be as big as in other parts of the country, but they affect many people. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press)
The climate is changing the region in several important ways – with warmer weather, less predictable rain and more tropical storms – which are generally scientists predict fire-enhancing weather patterns could double or triple in Atlantic Canada by 2080.
And while the region’s fires will likely never be as large and dramatic as the massive wildfires in the western and northern forests of the country, they will nonetheless threaten people and communities – as Halifax residents vividly witnessed as hundreds of homes in the periphery of the city were damaged or damaged. destroyed.
“We will live with fire and all this smoke in the air, now and for many years to come,” said Lynn Johnston, a wildfire specialist with the federal government’s Canadian Forest Service.
Less predictable rain
Like the rest of Canada, Atlantic Canada is getting hotter because of human-induced climate change. According to projectionssummer temperatures in the Maritime Provinces and Newfoundland and Labrador could be 2-4C above normal by 2050.
But precipitation — rain and snow — will also change, impacting wildfire patterns.
Atlantic Canada is expected to remain wet and total rainfall is expected to increase slightly, but the way it falls will become more uncertain, with high precipitation at times and dry spells at other times.
“If that precipitation doesn’t come on a regular basis and we have these persistent hot, dry and windy periods that stick around for a long time, that’s a big problem for fire activity,” said Johnston, whose research focuses on climate change and what it’s like. affecting wildfire patterns across Canada.
“Because once that fire starts, if it’s hot, dry and windy for a week, two weeks or more, that’s really, really, really good weather to keep fires burning.”
Rising temperatures and erratic precipitation are projected to lead to more wildfire-friendly weather in Atlantic Canada. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press)
That could lead to longer fire seasons, she said, and the fires within those longer seasons are more intense and unmanageable.
Eastern forests have some natural resistance
In general, forests in the Atlantic region are less prone to fire than in other parts of Canada. That’s because they have a mix of tree types – deciduous, which shed their leaves in the fall, and evergreen.
Deciduous trees, such as maple, birch and beech, have moist leaves and are generally less likely to catch fire than evergreen trees with cones and needles.
Firefighters and other emergency responders work at a staged command center outside Halifax. Climate change could lead to longer and more intense fire seasons in the region. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press)
In contrast, the vast boreal forest that covers northern Canada is characterized by mostly evergreen coniferous trees, which are more prone to major fires.
But even deciduous trees will burn under the right conditions — including long dry spells — and climate change will make those conditions more common.
The total area burned in the region each year will also increase, according to Taylor — about double what is seen now.
Adding fuel to the fire — literally — are tropical storms expected to hit the East Coast more frequently and with increasing intensity, a reality all too familiar after Hurricane Fiona last September. These storms blow down trees, which can become kindling for fires down the line.
“Even though we have fewer wildfires here, if conditions warm up as expected and we see this more than doubling the area burned, that’s important for a small region, especially in a region where we have a high density of people” , he said.
Fires get closer to people
All experts point to a major risk factor for fires in Atlantic Canada: how close they occur to where people live.
In the Halifax area, fires in the communities of Hammonds Plains and Tantallon destroyed about 150 homes. More than 16,000 people had to flee the area.
An evacuee directions sign is seen as volunteers and workers set up an evacuation center for those forced from their homes due to the wildfires in suburban Halifax. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press)
The area burned in Nova Scotia by two major wildfires, including the one in the Halifax area, amounted to 24,000 acres – an unprecedented number for the province. It pales in comparison to the 3.3 million acres that have burned in Canada so far, but it shows how even relatively smaller fires are having a big impact in Atlantic Canada.
“The density of people in the Maritimes is quite high, given the geographical area,” Taylor said.
“If you have an increased risk of fire, I think it will have a direct impact on people’s lives, just because we’re not that far from the forest.”
