Global Courant
The invalid vote is capable of repeating the elections in Guatemala, although for this it needs to have 50 percent plus one of the valid votes, according to the Electoral and Political Parties Law (Lepp).
This electoral option has been valid since the Congress of the Republic reformed the Lepp in 2016. In the 2019 elections, for the first time there was talk of repeating an election.
That was the first voting event that ran with new rules, but on that occasion the invalid vote did not generate as much discussion as it happens in the current electoral process.
On the one hand, there are campaigns that call for null voting, and on the other, politicians who reject this type of voting.
Null Vote Misconceptions
Thus, the invalid vote has jumped as a protagonist in the current process and at the same time there are many mistaken ideas that confuse the electorate about its true scope, says Aquiles Faillace, constituent.
“It is of national urgency in view of the imminence of the elections that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) confirm the provisions of the law, that the invalid vote is a vote validly cast for all positions in all districts, on all ballots and that they must hold new assemblies to nominate candidates,” said the constituent.
One of the misconceptions about null voting is that it is only valid for the presidential election, but Lepp indicates that it applies to all elections.
It applies to all elections, “whether for municipal corporations, deputies and for the presidential binomial,” emphasized Blanca Alfaro, TSE magistrate.
Another issue that can lead to confusion is the difference between a null vote and a blank vote, since, although they seem to have the same concept, they are different.
The invalid vote is one that does not have a mark on a certain political party or coalition, covers more than one box or contains another series of messages, and they are valid.
But the blank vote is one in which the voter does not issue any mark on the ballot and only puts it in the ballot box. This type of suffrage does not affect voting and could not affect the repetition of elections.
In addition, unlike the votes obtained by political parties or coalitions, which represents a cost for the State —US$2, two for each—, with null the TSE is not obliged to pay anyone as a political debt.
In Latin America, political experts highlight the elections held in the city of Antioquia, Colombia, as a triumph of the null vote, where 56 percent voted null in the mayoral elections and the only candidate who participated could not take office because he they had to repeat the elections with other candidates.
complex percentage
But in Guatemala the same would not necessarily happen. For some political experts, the wording of the Lepp prevents the invalid vote from being a success in Guatemala, since the number of votes it requires is very high.
“The threshold is very high, we are talking about 50 percent of the votes plus one, and no candidate who has had the chance to make political propaganda in the country has managed to win in the first round, which would be the same thing that is needed for the null vote wins”, highlighted Jahir Dabroy, a political scientist from the Association for Research and Social Studies (Asies).
Voting null can have an exclusively symbolic meaning, said Renzo Rosal, an independent political analyst, for whom the call to vote null “has been gaining a certain intensity.”
However, he considers that this could be beneficial for the big political parties. “It seems that the null vote will be a symbolic or emotional expression, but in the political sense it will be the other way around, because mathematically – the null vote – will benefit the strongest political options,” Rosal said.
As the issue progresses, according to Rosal, the messages in favor or against the invalid vote may gain more space for discussion, but it will be something that will be seen until June 25.
“It is one of the particular features of this election, we will see in two weeks how effective the calls are in one direction or another,” concluded the political analyst.
“With the same candidates”
Judge Alfaro recognized that null voting is valid within Guatemalan law, but in her opinion it would not be the most appropriate because our law does not order political parties to nominate new candidates.
“There are two manifestations of nullity, the one that I give inside a sheet that has no intention because it has passed two or more boxes (…) and the one that is against the system of democracy, as I do not share and that is why I am not going to vote, or some other expression that must be counted for an election to be repeated,” explained the official.
Alfaro adds that the invalid vote would not change the political landscape, since in Guatemala the parties are not obliged to present a new political offer.
“Why shouldn’t we vote null? Because we are going to the election with the same candidates and we are going to go to an election completely with the same ballots, only a new date and we would have to do it, we make the State spend more than half a million quetzales,” said the magistrate.
When detailing the expenses that the repetition of the elections would entail, Alfaro pointed out that in addition to that half million there are Q210 million for the Electoral Boards, “so Guatemalans continue to pay with taxes.”
The magistrate affirms that a new reform of the Lepp is needed, but that it will be the task of future legislative authorities. “We are aware that a reform to the electoral system has to be carried out, but this reform must take place in Congress with the new legislature and also aware of what we want to strengthen.”
Null, the rejection of Parlacen
In the 2019 elections, for the election of deputies to the Central American Parliament (Parlacén), 5 million 53 thousand 576 were cast, of which 1 million 41 thousand 767 were invalid, that is, 20.61% of the votes cast.
The data of 20.61% of the votes cast that obtained the null vote was historic since the electoral memoranda of the TSE show that during 2015 the null vote for the Parlacén reached 7.63%; in 2011, it was 9.14%, and in 1999, it was 4.28%. In 2003 and 2007 no deputies were elected to that body.
The result of null votes that Parlacén had in that election —20.61%— was far from the 50 percent necessary to repeat the election.
The invalid votes exceeded by 408 thousand 336 votes, the party with the most votes on that ballot —UNE with 633 thousand 431 votes. And when the null vote is compared with the second and third place the difference is exaggerated. Vamos obtained 298 thousand 47 votes and the Union of National Change 228 thousand 288.
