Global Courant
Taiwan and Japan are seeking a closer security relationship. Many of its building blocks are clear: relationships between people, political continuity, and geostrategic concerns. However, the lack of formal diplomatic relations stands in the way of closer military cooperation.
The lack of military readiness of Taiwan and Japan necessitates the role of the US.
Although Taiwan was a Japanese colony from 1895 to 1945, relations between the two countries have always been friendly. Japanese rule in Taiwan was marked by the construction of ports, dams, railways and other infrastructure projects.
The Japanese feel at ease in Taiwan, where they are warmly welcomed. When asked what their favorite country is, many Taiwanese would answer “Japan”. Both are democratic countries that share an aversion to communism.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT) has some members with strong anti-Japanese feelings due to memories of World War II and the disputed sovereignty of the Diaoyutai or Senkaku Islands. However, even during Ma Ying-jeou’s KMT administration from 2008 to 2016, the relationship between Taiwan and Japan was stable.
Nevertheless, Japan was happy that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in the 2016 election. The same was true after the 2020 election. Japan has always found the DPP easier to deal with than the KMT.
Strong friendship
Taiwan will hold presidential, vice presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2024. This is reported by the Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wuregardless of whether the DPP stays in power or the KMT comes to power, the relationship with Japan is likely to remain cooperative.
Throughout Japan there are friendship clubs between Taiwan and Japan. In 2021, the Kobe statement proved Japan’s bonhomie for Taiwan. The declaration called for a Japan-Taiwan Relations Act modeled on the US Taiwan Relations Act and received support from all parties, including the Communist Party of Japan.
In addition, much of Taiwan’s culture has been influenced by Japan, including everyday life, the grassroots organization of government, the national voting system, and Japan’s recently adopted jury system known as the “civil court law.”
In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has a comfortable majority in the powerful House of Representatives. Of the 465 seats in the House, the LDP has 260 and its junior coalition partner Komeito (Clean Government Party) has 32.
Given the relative weakness of Japan’s opposition parties, the LDP appears to have no direct challengers. The current factional balance of the LDP favors advancing relations with Taiwan. However, Komeito (the political arm of the Buddhist Soka Gakkai) promotes peace and is friendly with mainland China.
Perceived China threat
Geostratetically, if China were to take power, it would turn Taiwan, the cornerstone of the First Island Chain, into a massive naval base. The Chinese navy could easily send its ships to the Western Pacific and threaten the status quo and Okinawa Prefecture.
Japan’s southernmost island, Yonaguni, is just 146 kilometers from Hualien, Taiwan. Okinawa, which China claims, is uncomfortably close to Taiwan. In addition, Okinawa is the site of major US military bases and the majority of US troops stationed in Japan.
Tokyo and Taipei have a mutual interest in maintaining the status quo of the Taiwan Strait. For Taiwan, the strait is a buffer zone between Taiwan proper and mainland China. For Japan, the strait is a vital trade artery through which oil from the Middle East is transported to Japan. Chinese control of the Taiwan Strait would restrict access to the South China Sea and the Bashi channel.
In the wake of growing Chinese military assertiveness, Japan and Taiwan are seeking a closer security relationship.
The late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was instrumental in raising Japanese people’s awareness of the growing danger from China. At the same time, Taiwan has faced growing Chinese infiltration of society, more bellicose Chinese statements, and a clear intent by the Communist Party of China and General Secretary Xi Jinping to absorb Taiwan into China, calling it the “great rejuvenation of China’.
Taiwan hardens the military
Taiwan has implemented a number of military reforms. The conscription law has been extended to one year of compulsory service for men, effective January 2024. Such extensive training will aim to cultivate relevant military skills and make those enlisted feel that their time has not been wasted.
The Military budget 2023 has been increased to the equivalent of US$19 billion, an increase of almost 15%. New weapon systems have been acquired, such as 66 F-16Vs, 108 M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks and 400 Harpoon missiles.
There is a suggestion that the US and Taiwan could start co-producing weapons systems. Under the current government of Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has launched an upgraded industrial defense base, including a new jet trainer, minesweepers, naval corvettes and the Yushan multi-purpose naval vessel.
The Taiwan Army has created a new reserve command and increased the time and frequency of reserve training. However, there is much disagreement about the doctrine within the Ministry of National Defence. Should the MND opt for traditional warfare that emphasizes expensive, large weapon systems such as F-16s and tanks or adopt a more asymmetrical model of warfare?
Japan has entered a new strategic era in which the guiding Yoshida doctrine, which emphasized economic growth over security concerns, has been replaced by three updated security documents from Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Jeffrey W Hornung from the RAND Corporation has pointed out that Japan’s National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), and Defense Build Up (DBU) are jointly seeking to increase Japan’s defense budget by 60% in five years, loosening an informal budget cap of 1% of GDP, and acquire counter-attack missiles as long-range precision-guided munitions designed to deter an opponent’s attack.
Other significant changes include the establishment of a permanent Joint Operational Headquarters, the transfer of authority of Japan’s Coast Guard to the Department of Defense during any conflict, the establishment of robust cyber defenses, and a new commitment to intelligence capabilities. The NSS is also concerned with economic security, energy security and food security.
Despite the above, Taiwan and Japan have major obstacles to overcome to develop a viable security relationship:
If there are no formal diplomatic relations, which makes interaction difficult, look for alternative channels to communicate. Increase weapon interoperability. While there has been some improvement in intelligence sharing, more needs to be done. Homogenize military doctrines. Create joint training between the Taiwanese and Japanese armies. Improve Taiwan’s counterintelligence against Chinese espionage to create more Japanese confidence in Taiwan as a reliable partner. Reduce Japan’s dependence on China as an export market. Clarify Japanese policy towards both Taiwan and China.
These hurdles place the US in a central role to encourage Taiwan and Japan to cooperate in their mutual interest.
Both Tokyo and Taipei are on a tightrope in their relations with Beijing, forcing them to consider China’s and US’s reactions and reactions. Mutual geostrategic sensibilities and shared democratic beliefs will promote the further development of relations between Taiwan and Japan.
Nevertheless, the security relationship between Taiwan and Japan is in an emerging phase. To fully develop a viable security relationship, many obstacles must be overcome. Finally, the role of the US is crucial.
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