Global Courant
MANILA – “In the event of a US-China clash, the Philippines would become a cemetery,” former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte warned during the most recent episode of his weekly television program.
Known for his anti-Western tirades and pro-Chinese stances during his six-year term (2016-22), Duterte warned that his successor Ferdinand Marco Jr.’s foreign policy, particularly his administration’s strengthened defense cooperation with the United States, could push the Philippines into endangers .
Duterte claimed that his Chinese contacts had recently expressed deep concern about the recently expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which gives the US Pentagon expanded access to several military bases near the South China Sea and Taiwan.
According to Duterte, China’s envoy to Manila warned that if the defense pact “enables aggression against Beijing, the Philippines will always be a target.”
In addition, Duterte also wildly claimed, without providing any evidence, that the US intends to station nuclear weapons on Philippine bases, even though such a move would violate existing agreements between the two allies of the Mutual Defense Treaty.
The ex-leader’s diatribes reflect a growing rift within the Philippine political establishment as Marcos Jr takes an increasingly tough stance on the South China Sea disputes with the supposed support of traditional Western allies.
At the same time, the president is also recruiting Western-friendly figures for top cabinet positions. also for the defense and possible Foreign Affairs departments.
The growing disagreements on foreign policy issues took center stage recent public spats between established order, culminating in the recent abrupt relegation from former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, another Beijing-friendly Philippine leader, to the ranks of the ruling coalition and Vice President Sara Duterte’s recent firing of the ruling party.
Then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter Sara Duterte in an archive photo. Image: Twitter
Both the Dutertes and Marcos Jr. have repeatedly emphasized their commitment to a “UniTeam” enduring alliance, which was instrumental in winning a landslide victory in last year’s presidential election.
Marco Jr. has consistently downplayed speculation about growing rifts with the powerful dynasty of the southern island of Mindanao. told recently Sara Duterte “I’m still your biggest fan.” For his part, the former president described his successor’s first year in office as “very good”.
But in all likelihood, foreign policy issues, particularly regarding how the Philippines positions itself between the two rival superpowers, are driving a wedge between the two powerful political families.
“By granting bases to America, we can be sure — and I’m sure when the sun rises in the east — that these nuclear bases, which have now expanded to 17, will have nuclear warheads,” Duterte said in his statement. recent television episode. how it would be “quite naive or (an act of) stupidity” to assume that Americans would not smuggle nuclear weapons into EDCA sites.
“Nuclear bombs are way too different…I think, or I don’t think, that the Philippines would be a graveyard if war comes,” he continued, effectively fired Marcos Jr.’s reassurance against any “offensive” use of EDCA sites by visiting US troops.
The ECAnegotiated shortly after the 2012 Scarborough Shoal Crisis, prohibits Americans from both building permanent bases and placing weapons of mass destruction on Philippine soil.
The defense pact gives the Pentagon only rotational, flexible and limited access to pre-designated locations and facilities based on mutual consent. But Duterte has nevertheless continued to echo Beijing’s warnings in recent months.
Outraged by Marcos Jr’s growing defense ties with the US, China has warned of “stirring up” regional tensions. In April, Beijing even hinted at internal disagreements in the Philippines by claiming that China’s mistrust of the EDCA is “shared by many in the Philippines,” likely referring to influential politicians such as Duterte and his proxies.
U.S. Marines attempt to establish defensive positions in a bilateral amphibious landing during Balikatan 22, Claveria, Philippines, March 31, 2022. Image: U.S. Marines/Corporal Madison Santamaria
A prominent Chinese scholar who works in a state-backed think tank also warned that the EDCA sites “definitely … is a big thing for China.”
The foreign policy schism, some analysts speculate, could culminate in the implosion of the ruling coalition. There are skeletons in the political closet. In the past, Duterte indirectly criticized Marcos Jr, then a prospective presidential candidate, as “spoiled” and a “weak leader.”
Last year, Dutetre, president of the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), also warned that he could potentially lead an opposition to his successor’s policies.
Prospects for a Duterte-led opposition gained momentum earlier this year when former President Arroyo, who also favored closer ties with China, was demoted from the senior ranks of the Philippine Congress, currently led by Martin, the nephew from Marcos Jr. Romualdez.
Shortly thereafter, Vice President Sara Duterte resigned from the ruling party, led by Romualdez, in a strongly worded protest against “appalling political power play” and “political toxicity.”
The episode was reportedly driven by suspects that the former president was “plotting a coup d’état” against the incumbent Speaker of the House, though many observers suspect growing disagreements over foreign policy issues were the real driving factor.
Arroyo, who portrayed Marcos Jr. regularly accompanied on major foreign visits, was reported increasingly vocal in its opposition to the incumbent’s Western foreign policy.
As a result, speculation is mounting about a possible Arroyo-Duterte twin ticket in the 2025 midterm elections, where Marcos Jr is expected to face backlash against his main policies, particularly the EDCA.
Meanwhile, Marcos Jr. strengthened his cabinet with reliable, Western-friendly political figures. In that direction, the president recently appointed Gibo Teodoro Jr., a Harvard-educated attorney and known Marcos ally, as his full defense secretary.
Two former generals previously served as temporary defense chiefs because of a one-year constitutional ban on the nomination of former election losers, including Teodoro Jr., who ran for Senate last year.
Returning to his old job, which he held in the late 2000s, Teodoro made it clear that the recent pivot of the Philippines’ foreign policy to the West has been purely defensive, namely a response to China’s growing assertiveness in the embattled South China Sea .
“If other countries genuinely want to have good relations with the Philippines, they have to give us a little bit of confidence, that we are responsible that we are nobody’s puppets and that we want the Philippines for the Filipinos,” Teodoro stated in a thinly-veiled rebuttal to Beijing’s criticism of Marcos Jr.’s foreign policy
“The president has said this many times. I have said this over and over that these are really for the defense of our country, because a strong Philippines is a benefit to the world,” the new defense chief added,
Meanwhile, speculation is mounting that Marcos Jr. considering the appointment of a new foreign minister. A top candidate is the current Philippine Ambassador to the US, Jose “Babe” Romualdezwho also happens to be a first cousin of the president.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Philippine Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel “Babe” Romualdez. Image: Facebook
Throughout his half-decade as Manila’s top envoy to Washington, Romualdez was instrumental in ensuring that the Philippine-American alliance remained intact and robust despite the vicissitudes of both allies’ domestic politics.
The experienced ambassador is the target of recent malicious attacks by pro-Beijing elements in the Philippines fearing a stronger Philippine-American defense alliance under a new foreign chief.
Former Minister of the Interior and Trade, Manuel Araneta Roxas, a Wharton-educated technocrat related to First Lady Liza Araneta has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for the top diplomatic position.
In 2012, Roxas, then the top leader in the ruling Liberal Party, served as a special envoy to China, where he met and reportedly engaged in constructive dialogue with then-incoming Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“We had a frank and candid exchange of views and I am pleased that I was able to faithfully convey President Aquino’s message,” Roxas said after his meeting with Xi.
Although unlikely, his possible appointment as top diplomat would also have an important domestic political dimension by expanding the base of the incumbent party by bringing ex-loyals of the Liberal opposition into his potentially fractured ruling coalition.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter @Richeydarian
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