Global Courant
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The main index on Oslo Børs recently reached a new top ranking for the first time in more than a year. At the start of a new stock market week, the oil price is one of the moments of tension.
In the space of a few months, the spot price of Brent North Sea oil has risen by 25 percent to more than $ 90 per barrel, driven by production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Without growth for US shale oil, analysts believe prices will remain high.
– It is difficult to see how this will be solved at all, i.e. on the supply side. As long as demand remains high, as seems to be the case so far, I think it is an exciting sector. Oil stocks have been quite strong, so now we are at the point where we are once again favoring oil services, says Gaute Eie, Eika investment director.
Eie points out that earnings expectations have not been raised for many players since November, highlighting companies such as Schlumberger and Subsea7.
– We think that within that sector it is so tight on the supply side that you will still get an estimate increase, he says.
The article continues below the advertisement“Peak oil” has been postponed
Eie notes that all history indicates that a high oil price will be followed by a sharp price drop.
– What may be different this time is that Opec dares to try to take back power, and shale oil can stabilize. Then power returns to someone who wants higher oil prices.
– Moreover, the major agencies have long talked about the “peak oil” coming very early. Just a few years ago it was 2027, but time is passing. The two things together allow the cycle to be longer, Eie says.
Earlier this weekend, DN discussed new estimates from the major bank JPMorgan Chase, which foreshadow sharply higher oil prices in the coming years.
JPMorgan has forecast oil prices of between $90 and $110 next year, and $100 to $120 by 2025.
– Fasten the seat belts. It will be a very volatile bullish cycle, JPMorgan Chase analyst Christyan Malek said in an interview with Bloomberg.
With fish
At Eika they have also made a few other small adjustments recently.
– Now we are approaching the last interest rate increase and we are slightly less positive about the banks. The fishing sector is one of our biggest challenges heading into the new season.(Conditions)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and/or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases via links that lead directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the contents may only be made with written permission or as permitted by law. For further conditions see here.
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Published: 18.09.23 — 01:05
Investment director in the oil market: – It is difficult to see how this will be solved
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