International Courant
Kiev, Ukraine – Svitlana Menyaylo doesn’t wish to hear a phrase in regards to the success of the Ukrainian armed forces within the western Russian area of Kursk.
Since August 6, Ukrainian troopers have occupied dozens of Russian villages unfold over greater than 1,000 sq. kilometers, digging in to repel a looming Russian counteroffensive.
However for Menyaylo, a seamstress from the besieged metropolis of Pokrovsk within the jap Ukrainian area of Donetsk, the presence of Ukrainian troops in Kursk looks like a betrayal.
Pokrovsk, the executive middle of a closely industrialized agglomeration with a pre-war inhabitants of practically 400,000, is more likely to be captured quickly by advancing Russian troops.
They lie lower than 10 km (6 miles) east and are drawing nearer by the minute after months of heavy bombardments and “meat marches,” frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions which have price Russian generals tens of hundreds of troopers.
The depopulated metropolis and the a number of highways and railways that run alongside it served as a serious logistical hub for the Ukrainian military. Their seize might open up the entrance line and develop into a propaganda triumph for the Kremlin.
The federal government in Kiev “ought to have despatched these troops (from Kursk) right here to repel the Orcs,” Menyaylo informed Al Jazeera in a phone interview, utilizing a derogatory time period for Russian navy personnel.
Whereas many in Ukraine cheered the navy invasion of Kursk that caught Moscow unexpectedly, tens of hundreds in Donetsk are making ready to flee. In the meantime, Russian airstrikes on different elements of the nation proceed unabated: at the very least 51 individuals had been killed Tuesday in rocket assaults on Poltava in central Ukraine.
“And what in regards to the Kursk area? We’re shedding Donetsk,” Menyaylo mentioned, repeating a tragic meme that has been circulating on-line in current days.
A person hugs his daughter, different kids standing close by, as they anticipate evacuation in Pokrovsk, Donetsk area, Ukraine, August 23, 2024 (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Picture)
‘They reside in two realities’
In the course of the interview, the 42-year-old was about to depart her two-bedroom house when she was confronted by the roar of Russian shelling and the boring thud of heavy glider bombs that collapsed a number of close by buildings.
She mentioned she was packing luggage with garments, paperwork and souvenirs, comparable to pictures of her grandparents who moved from central Ukraine to Donetsk after World Conflict II.
She blames the lack of her residence on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s authorities and high brass, a few of whom had been fired by him on Tuesday in a serious shakeup.
“It is like they’re dwelling in two realities. They care about these short-term beneficial properties as a substitute of defending the Ukrainian land right here and now,” she mentioned.
Navy analysts agree.
“Sure, the 2 campaigns are growing in parallel realities, and regardless of a small success in Kursk previously two weeks, additional objectives usually are not solely comprehensible,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s College of Bremen, informed Al Jazeera.
Russia moved solely small numbers of troops from the Ukrainian entrance line to Kursk, supplementing them with barely educated conscripts and ethnic Chechen troopers with questionable battlefield expertise.
However Kiev despatched hundreds of troops to Kursk, leaving troops in Donetsk with a skeleton crew that might not forestall a “frontline breakthrough,” Mitrokhin mentioned.
The Kremlin strengthened its advance on Pokrovsk by deploying troops that stormed the close by city of Khasiv Yar. Their breakthrough in Donetsk meant they might assault Ukrainian forces within the close by Zaporizhia area.
Moscow captured three-quarters of Zaporizhia in 2022, and Ukrainian troops liberated small areas throughout their failed counteroffensive final yr.
“Within the subsequent two weeks, Ukraine will almost certainly lose virtually its total entrance line in Zaporizhia if it doesn’t convey all its reserves from someplace or begin a brand new advance” into Russian territory, Mitrokhin mentioned.
Individuals queue to register for evacuation in Pokrovsk, Donetsk area, Ukraine, August 23, 2024 (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Picture)
‘Slippery’ slope
However Ukraine seems to have run out of reserves attributable to additional losses within the southern Kherson area.
Since 2022, most of Kherson has been occupied and Kiev continued to attempt to regain territory there by capturing small islands within the Dnipro delta, regardless of heavy losses.
In current weeks, Ukrainian troops have left many of the islands and undermanned air protection forces are unable to cease Russian drone strikes which have “over-terrorized” the regional capital, additionally known as Kherson, Mitrokhin mentioned.
“Total, Ukraine’s positions deteriorated quickly in August,” he concluded.
The state of affairs is so unhealthy that some Ukrainian observers merely refuse to touch upon it.
“The topic is delicate, I do not wish to incite treason,” a navy knowledgeable informed Al Jazeera.
In the meantime, Ukrainian officers stress that the approaching lack of Pokrovsk is not going to lead to a strategic victory for Moscow, as Russia is operating out of manpower, weapons and ammunition.
“The enemy is now throwing all its forces and sources into breaking by means of there. And if they’re stopped now, they won’t have many sources to behave in different instructions,” Roman Kostenko, head of the parliamentary committee on nationwide safety, protection and intelligence, mentioned in televised speeches.
But the tip of summer time additionally introduced extra miserable information for Kiev.
In July, Ukraine obtained 10 F-16 fighter jets, and misplaced one final week.
Lawmaker Mariana Bezugla claimed it was shot down by pleasant hearth from the Patriot air protection system throughout an enormous Russian drone strike. Officers denied the declare, however Zelenskyy fired air power chief Mykola Oleshchuk.
Nonetheless, not all is rosy on the entrance strains, with Ukraine finishing up drone assaults on Russian airfields, gas depots, navy factories and infrastructure websites.
The biggest assault, involving 158 drones, occurred Saturday night time and reached 16 areas in western Russia, the Russian Protection Ministry mentioned.
The drones hit an oil refinery exterior Moscow and one in every of Russia’s largest thermal energy vegetation within the Volga metropolis of Konakovo, greater than 500 miles (800 kilometers) north of the Ukrainian border.
Russian officers claimed that 5 Ukrainian drones had been shot down with out damaging the plant. However witnesses, images and video proof recommend that the plant was badly broken.
“My entire home shook and the fireplace unfold to half the sky,” a Konakovo resident informed Al Jazeera on situation of anonymity. “And the sound of the fireplace was so loud that you just couldn’t discuss.”
Ukraine’s losses outweigh Kursk’s beneficial properties as Russia poised to seize key metropolis | Russia-Ukraine struggle
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