World Courant
Vice President Kamala Harris’ positioning as a change agent is going through headwinds resulting from her position within the unpopular Biden administration: Whereas three-quarters of Individuals in a brand new ABC Information/Ipsos ballot need her to take a brand new route from President Joe Biden’s, most do not assume she would.
Harris additionally follows former President Donald Trump in offering ample particulars in regards to the insurance policies she would pursue as president. However the imaginative and prescient shortcomings aren’t simply hers: Greater than half say neither Trump nor Harris have executed a very good job expressing new concepts for the nation’s future.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris attend an occasion on gun violence within the East Room of the White Home, September 26, 2024, in Washington.
Saul Loeb/AFP by way of Getty Photos
The survey, produced for ABC Information by Longer Analysis Associates with fieldwork from Ipsosfinds that the general public from greater than 74% to 22% would somewhat see Harris take a brand new route as president than proceed the insurance policies of the Biden administration. Even most Democrats say that.
However that is not what most individuals count on: 65% as an alternative assume Harris would primarily proceed Biden’s insurance policies, in comparison with 33% who say she would chart a brand new course.
Preferences versus expectations
ABC Information/Ipsos ballot
See PDF for the total outcomes.
The need for change displays how the Biden administration continues to face deeply unfavourable assessments of its financial efficiency. Forty-four % of Individuals say they don’t seem to be as effectively off financially as they had been when Biden took workplace, about the place it has been since early 2023 and at its highest polling charge since 1986. Few, 18%, say they’re higher off, though that’s up from 13% in January.
Harris’s vulnerability on this subject was underscored this week: When requested on ABC’s “The View” what she would have executed in another way than Biden throughout his presidency, she initially replied, “Nothing involves thoughts.” (She later mentioned she would appoint a Republican to her Cupboard.) Trump’s marketing campaign pounced on this remark.
Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, speaks to reporters within the spin room after an ABC Information presidential debate with Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, September 10, 2024, in Philadelphia.
Matt Slocum/AP
Trump, in flip, does higher in relation to preferences versus expectations, though there’s nonetheless a spot between the 2. Sixty-four % assume he would proceed the insurance policies of his earlier authorities. Greater than half would favor a brand new route as an alternative — nevertheless it’s 53% who say so, versus the 74% who search for Harris to distance herself from Biden’s observe.
One other technique to assess these outcomes is to see how many individuals agree on what they need and what they count on from the candidates. Trump is doing higher: for 54%, what they need and what they count on from him are the identical, whether or not it’s continuity or change. Fewer, 48%, agree with Harris.
The large distinction is that 32% each assume Trump will proceed his previous insurance policies and need him to take action, whereas solely 18% each assume Harris will proceed Biden’s insurance policies and need her to take action.
Attunement to preferences and expectations
SOURCE: ABC NEWS/IPSOS POLL
The partisan disagreements on these questions are telling and as soon as once more mark Biden’s unpopularity. Even amongst Democrats, solely 36% need Harris to proceed the Biden administration’s insurance policies. Sixty-three % of Democrats need Harris to take a brand new route.
Throughout the board, these numbers are reversed: 65% of Republicans need Trump to proceed the insurance policies of his earlier administration, whereas solely a 3rd need a new route. Furthermore, amongst independents, twice as many individuals need Trump to proceed his insurance policies as Harris desires to proceed Biden’s.
Preferences for earlier insurance policies – by social gathering
SOURCE: ABC NEWS/IPSOS POLL
Insurance policies and concepts
By way of outlining their insurance policies and expressing their imaginative and prescient, neither candidate excels. Solely 37% say Harris has executed sufficient to supply particulars in regards to the insurance policies she is going to pursue as president; extra, albeit solely 42%, say the identical about Trump. 5 share factors is a lead for Trump, however a small one given his lengthy dominance within the nationwide highlight.
By way of imaginative and prescient, there’s just about no distinction general, with the general public ranking Harris 53%-46% extra negatively than positively in relation to having new concepts for the nation’s future. It is a comparable 54%-44% for Trump.
By way of depth of sentiment, Trump is worse off than Harris on this entrance. Thirty-nine % say he has executed a downright poor job on new concepts, in comparison with 31% who say this about Harris. Throughout the depth spectrum, far fewer say each have executed a superb job within the new concepts division: 20% for Trump, 18% for Harris.
Political loyalty is a robust issue right here, a testomony to the way in which individuals choose candidates by a partisan filter. Ninety-one % of Democrats charge Harris favorably on new concepts; 10% of Republicans agree. These numbers flip in opposition to Trump: 89% constructive of Republicans, 8% of Democrats.
Independents charge candidates basically equally on new concepts. Nonetheless, if Trump does sufficient to element his insurance policies, he does seven factors higher than Harris amongst independents (although neither does effectively, 40% vs. 33%), including to his general lead of 5 factors on this space.
Methodology
This ABC Information/Ipsos survey was performed on-line by way of the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® from October 4 to eight, 2024, in English and Spanish, amongst a random nationwide pattern of two,631 adults. The social gathering cut up is 29%-29%-30%, Democrats-Republicans-Independents. The outcomes have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 share factors, together with the design impact, for the total pattern. Sampling error is just not the one supply of variations in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC Information by Longer Analysis Associateswith sampling and information assortment by Ipsos. View particulars about ABC Information’ survey methodology right here.
Voters query Harris’ pitch as agent of change: POLL
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