Global Courant
July 8, 2023, marked the first anniversary of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Since then, Japanese foreign policy, with the exception of its policy toward Russia, has continued on the trajectory set by the country’s longest-serving prime minister.
While Abe doggedly pursued rapprochements with Russian President Vladimir Putin in hopes of resolving the long-standing dispute over the Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine forced a less conciliatory Japanese policy.
It is no longer possible to remain uninvolved
In his keynote address during the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2022, Abe’s Secretary of State and current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reflected on the changed geopolitical realities: “In light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, countries’ perceptions of security around the world have changed dramatically…. I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today can be East Asia tomorrow.”
Also in 2022, Kishida became the first Japanese prime minister in history to attend a NATO summit along with its Asia-Pacific partners, known as the AP4. In Madrid, Kishida stressed that the security of Europe and that of the Indo-Pacific region cannot be discussed separately.
This has since been repeated by Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi at numerous summits.
Thinking about a changed world
Japan faces a challenging security environment with China, North Korea and Russia in its immediate vicinity. In December 2012, Shinzo Abe published the essay “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond,Where he warned of China’s aspirations in the South China Sea and expressed the need for a revival of four-way security dialogue.
Abe’s government formulated the first Japanese National security strategy (NSS) and founded the National Security Council in 2013. The next step was the reinterpretation of the Japanese constitution and the introduction of national security legislation 2015allowing limited participation in collective security efforts.
At the time, it encountered opposition in parliament and massive demonstrations. In hindsight, it was the foresight of Abe’s cabinet that sacrificed short-term popularity by giving it up Yoshida Doctrine for long-term safety goals.
Abe’s successor, Kishida, has updated the Japanese NSS in December, along with two related documents. Originally, the government planned to update the NSS in 2020; however, due to Abe’s resignation as prime minister and Yoshihide Suga’s short-lived government, the task fell to Kishida’s cabinet.
The new NSS, including the goal of doubling military spending, reflects Japan’s new security reality: North Korea’s technological advances in weapons of mass destruction, China’s unprecedented rise, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Under Kishida, Japan has become the most outspoken supporter of Ukraine in the Indo-Pacific region. However, Japan does not stop at words. Following other leaders in the Group of Seven, Kishida visited Ukraine’s war-torn capital, and Japan provided unprecedented humanitarian aid, loans and, due to its constitutional limitations, non-lethal military equipment.
Abe was keen to surround himself with talented policymakers. One of these prodigies, the current National Security Advisor, Takeo Akiba, formulated the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP) in 2016.
On the one hand, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). 2017, and it was mainly up to Abe and Australia’s then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to save it. On the other hand, Abe found in Trump an unlikely ally for the Quad revival and for his FOIP vision. In 2018, the US even renamed its Pacific Command to US Indo-Pacific Command.
Despite his differences with Trump, US President Joe Biden’s administration has largely continued his predecessor’s policies toward the Indo-Pacific region and the Quad, but with some differences in tone and emphasis.
The Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and elevated the Quad to a leadership-level summit, where the four countries agreed to work together on issues such as Covid-19, climate change, technology and infrastructure.
The Biden administration has also sought to engage more multilaterally with its allies and partners in the region, including through ASEAN-led mechanisms, the G7 and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Kishida inherited FOIP, and in March he symbolically announced it his new plan for FOIP in India where Abe gave his famous 2007 speech”Confluence of the two seasin the Indian Parliament, presenting the Indo-Pacific region as one geostrategic theater for the first time.
Like the FOIP strategy, the Quad is also an idea Kishida inherited. Following in Abe’s footsteps, Kishida has enhanced collaboration based on the Alliance between Japan and the US.
Abe maintained longstanding Japanese relations with Australia and India and entered into strategic partnerships with India 2006 and with Australia in it 2014. The Kishida government deepened security cooperation with Australia and the UK further, and signed the Reciprocal Access Agreements.
Japan is planning to sixth generation fighter jet with the United Kingdom and Italy. Japan has also supported the UK’s entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the successor to the TPP.
The UK officially applied for CPTPP membership on February 21, 2021. The accession negotiations were concluded on March 31 this year and the UK formally signed the agreement as the first European country to join the pact on 16 July.
Japan is also strengthening security cooperation with France And Germany.
There is also continuity from Abe to Kishida in strengthening cooperation with the European Union and NATO. The Covid-19 pandemic was another game changer. The Kishida government learned from the pandemic and made economic security its priority. This emphasis is not only visible in the cooperation with Quad, but also with the EU, ASEAN and other partners.
Closer NATO ties
Ahead of the Vilnius summit, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Japan’s plan to open a diplomatic mission to NATO in Brussels in April. Prime Minister Kishida and his AP4 colleagues attended the second consecutive NATO summit in Vilnius.
After approval of the NSS, NATO accelerated negotiations with Japan on the Individually tailored partnership programwhich was signed at the Vilnius NATO Summit for the period 2023-2026, increasing the number of areas of cooperation from nine to sixteen, reflecting the new security challenges.
Through the agreement with NATO, Japan hopes to strengthen its military capabilities to keep China at bay by expanding cooperation in areas such as cyber defense and anti-disinformation measures.
Increased for both NATO and Japan Russian-Chinese strategic alignment is a challenge. Deterrence has become the buzzword of the Kishida administration. China is Japan’s largest trading partner; therefore, even the theoretical possibility of a kinetic showdown between the US and China, taking place in its vicinity, gives Tokyo a headache.
The only negative point before the Vilnius summit was when French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his opposition to the creation of a NATO liaison office in Tokyo. For now, the proposal is likely to be shelved.
Japan, EU strengthen partnership
In recent years, the EU and a number of individual European countries have released new Indo-Pacific strategies or policies, reflecting increased concerns about the impact of the security environment in the region on European economic and security interests. In short, Europeans are involved in security issues in the Indian Ocean, not because they want to, but because they see the need.
European participation in the region has been mostly cautious and reactive. However, the growing connection between Europe and Asia has changed the background and Europe must now become more active.
These changes were also reflected in the recent rack by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, at a joint press conference with European Council Presidents Charles Michel and Kishida after the EU-Japan summit in Brussels, just one day (July 13) after the NATO summit in Vilnius.
“We know that Indo-Pacific security and European security are indivisible,” von der Leyen said at the press conference.
The Joint Statement EU-Japan Summit 2023 reflects the need to improve economic resilience, strengthen trade and investment ties and enhance cooperation in critical raw material supply chains.
Both the EU and Japan recognize the need to make their supply chains less risky and their economies less dependent on China. The EU and Japan are also seeking to establish a strategic dialogue at the Foreign Ministry level and to develop a security partnership.
They agreed on the intensification of anti-piracy cooperation and joint work on energy and green transitions under the Green Alliance, which will be intensified.
EU and Japanese leaders agreed to accelerate their digital transformation cooperation following the first meeting of the Digital Partnership Council in Tokyo on 3 July, and to sign memoranda of cooperation on semiconductors and support safe and resilient submarine cable links between the EU and Japan.
In addition, they agreed to operationalize their partnership for sustainable connectivity and quality infrastructure by jointly identifying an initial list of substantial connectivity projects. Leaders also welcomed the improvement of air links between the EU and Japan, which builds on the “EU-Japan horizontal agreement on air services” signed in February.
Conclusion
Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, certainly left a mark on his country and its foreign and security policy, as well as the Indo-Pacific region, a term he coined.
Tokyo, under Abe’s leadership, adopted the more assertive concept of “Proactive Contribution to Peace” as the basic tenet for Japan’s national security strategy.
Often described as aggressive, Abe did not change Japan’s continued adherence to policies that testify to its path as a peace-loving nation: to maintain an exclusively defense-oriented attitude, not to become a military force, and to Three non-nuclear principles.
Japan addressed global challenges during its tenure in partnership with the US and other partners in the Indo-Pacific region, in Europe and elsewhere who share the universal values of freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights and the rule of law.
Scholars will scrutinize his legacy, considered controversial by some, in the coming years. One thing is certain: along with Junichiro Koizumi, Nobusuke Kishi and Shigeru Yoshida, he will be one of the most influential Japanese prime ministers in modern history, placing high expectations at home and internationally for any successor.
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