Global Courant 2023-04-11 17:00:00
EDITOR’S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion survey in late March, about two months before Albertans vote in the next election on May 29.
As with all polls, this one is also a snapshot.
This analysis is part of a series of articles resulting from this research.
The Alberta NDP is ahead of the United Conservative Party in Calgary, the battleground city where Rachel Notley’s party will likely need a landslide to overtake Danielle Smith’s government, according to a new poll of 1,000 Calgarians.
Given that both sides and nearly all observers have stated that how blue or orange Alberta’s largest city is will determine the winner of the election, CBC News commissioned this special poll of Calgarians only by Janet Brown Opinion Research. It allows us to delve deeper into the minds of Calgary voters than a county-wide poll, and to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the major parties in Calgary’s various quadrants.
The New Democrats are comfortably ahead by double digits in both Northeast Calgary and Northwest, while holding a slight lead in Southwest Calgary and behind the UCP in the Southeast.
Citywide, the NDP has the support of 47 percent of determined and inclined voters against the UCP’s 42 percent. Notley is ahead, but it’s a fragile lead, says Janet Brown.
“If I were the NDP, I wouldn’t be comfortable with this advantage,” said the veteran pollster.
The survey was conducted between March 23 and April 6, ahead of the May 29 provincial elections.
Hello Calgary
Calgary is the big election prize of Alberta politics, not only because it holds 26 of Alberta’s 87 seats, but also because urban voters are likely to change their mind from election to election.
In 2015, the NDP won 15 seats in the city and became government. In 2019, the Jason Kenney-led UCP won 23 of Calgary’s rides and their own county-wide majority.
In that election, 55 percent of Calgary’s voters voted for United Conservatives and 32 percent for NDP. Election results reflecting these new polls would mark a huge swing in Notley’s favor.
However, with a five-point lead for the NDP, the opposition party’s lead is barely outside the margin of error.
“That lead could evaporate very quickly if the UCP has a more effective strategy for getting out of the vote than the NDP,” Brown said.
Prime Minister Danielle Smith, who replaced Kenney as UCP leader in October, continues to chase low approval ratings. When asked how impressed they were with Smith on a scale of 0-10, half of the respondents gave her a low score of three or less, while 29 percent said they were very impressed with her and gave her a seven or higher scored. Another 20 percent gave her a neutral rating.
That’s almost the opposite of Calgarians’ impression of Notley, which is central to NDP campaign ads and pamphlets. Thirty percent said they were not impressed, 45 percent very impressed, and 24 percent in the middle.
Notley of the North
The next prime minister will have to devise an effective strategy to accumulate victories in Calgary’s various quadrants.
UCP support is strongest in southeastern Calgary, where the party leads the NDP by 52 percent to 40 percent.
The NDP performs best in the Northeast, leading 48 to 33. It leads the Northwest 52 to 38, while Calgary’s 45 to 43 lead in Southwest virtually levels the sides.
According to Brown’s estimates, these numbers would translate to 18 Calgary seats won by Notley’s party and eight by Smith’s.
“That means the NDP looks like they’re capable of winning the majority of seats in Calgary, but I’m not sure 18 seats is enough to win the entire province.”
Even if you combine 18 Calgary seats with a streak from the 20 motos in Edmonton – Notley’s hometown stronghold – that still wouldn’t be enough to give the NDP a 44-seat majority and a victory. The opposition party should also make gains in Alberta’s smaller communities or rural areas, where the United Conservatives are strongest.
Other smaller parties hardly ever register. The Alberta Party is holding on to three percent, while one percent each said they would support the Wildrose Independence Party, Alberta Liberals and Alberta Greens.
Six percent of respondents are considered “orphaned voters,” those who don’t like any of the options.
“Those voters have already rejected the two major parties. So I don’t think there’s much chance that those parties can turn those voters into supporters at this point,” Brown said.
Who’s blue, who’s orange
The NDP is especially strong among Calgary women, leading the UCP by 51 percent to 41, while the parties are nearly tied with men. NDP maintains its traditional strength among young voters, but also leads the UCP by 10 percentage points among seniors, the poll suggests.
The UCP has a healthy lead over Calgaren with no post-secondary education or some, while respondents with college degrees clearly favor the New Democrats.
While some city quadrants seem to clearly favor one party over the other — and the NDP is better in the inner city, the UCP in the suburbs — there would be more subtle differences if you drilled further, said Jack Lucas, a university graduate. associate professor of political science at the University of Calgary.
“If you zoom in on the city of Calgary itself, there are districts in the city that are particularly ideologically diverse and competitive,” he said. “If you zoom in within those neighborhoods, you even see certain neighborhoods or communities that are particularly competitive.
“So it’s a battlefield no matter what scale you think of.”
CBC News’ random survey of 1,000 Calgarians was conducted using a hybrid method between March 23 and April 6 by Edmonton-based Trend Research led by Janet Brown Opinion Survey. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is greater.
The survey used a hybrid method where respondents were contacted by phone and offered the option to complete the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or to receive an email link and the survey online. Trend Research contacted people through a random list of numbers, consisting of half landline and half mobile numbers. Phone numbers were called up to five times at five different times of the day before another phone number was added to the sample.
